On the Edge

March 15th, 2026

It’s not too much of an exaggeration to say that the world has stumbled too close to the edge, that we teeter on the abyss. A war that the West - and its various intelligence agencies failed to understand or appreciate, grinds into its 5th year in eastern Ukraine, and Russia’s “close friend” China continues to rattle its saber around Taiwan (they just completed a series of maneuvers around the island), and Chinese aggression in the South China Sea continues, in particular directed at the Philippines. 

And, China and Russia have two close allies: North Korea - already a nuclear state - and Iran.

Interestingly, of the four nations, it’s the one that is most commonly ridiculed, and its leadership labeled as “crazy," North Korea, that is perhaps the most stable, the most “sane.” North Korea, and the Kim dynasty, may have nuclear weapons but they also understand that there is a very real limit to their actions and, because the Kim dynasty wishes above all else to survive, to continue in place, they are careful to remain inside those boundaries.

But it’s the 4th member of this unpleasant alliance, Iran, that represents the most immediate danger. Russia may continue the war in Ukraine, but the slow grind of the army, and the Russian way of war, ensures that there will be no breakout, and the fact that Russia has nuclear weapons is counter-balanced by decades of understanding of the deterrence value of US and French and British nuclear weapons in Europe. Things may be ugly in Europe, but there seems to be a reasonable assessment that they won’t get out of control.

Similarly, China - and Emperor Xi - want to press for control of both Taiwan and the South China Sea - and later South East Asia, but given all the machinations currently underway in China, and as Xi and the CCP watch President Trump and his various operations around the world over the past 9 or 10 months, it’s clear that the calculus in Beijing needs to be reexamined. As Gordon Chang said just the other day, "In Beijing these days, just about everyone knows China's arrogant leader was wrong about the long-term direction of the United States."

This is a key point, for there’s no more important an issue for the US and Europe and the free nations of Eastern Asia, in the medium to long term, than the containment of China, while at the same time preventing a “great power on great power” war.

But what about short and medium term worries? This leads to Iran. 

Iran is China’s great proxy. Russia is China’s ally and the war in Ukraine ties down western forces and complicates western defense spending. But it’s the wild card that Iran represents that is - or was - China’s “Joker.”

Iran actually represented 4 major “cards” for China. First, and most obviously, China was buying 1.3 million barrels of oil per day from Iran. For a country that imports 75% of its oil (China imports 12.5 million barrels per day (it consumes about 16.5 million barrels per day)), this was important. That Iran had more capacity was perhaps even more important: up until 2 weeks ago China “knew” it could buy more oil from Iran in years to come. 

Secondly, Iran represents - or represented - a real threat to the oil fields and refineries of its neighbors - Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Iranian conventional ballistic missiles could easily strike those fields and cause damage that would take years to replace. Iran could also strike the many desalination plants that these countries truly need to survive. 

Thirdly, Iran, as a Shia state, is the “third rail" of the Islamic world, the chasm that splits Islam into two virtually irreconcilable camps. That one of the camps - Shiite Islam - embodies a theological perspective that welcomes a cataclysmic apocalypse makes it an implacable foe to the rest of Islam, as well as to Israel and the idea of a Jewish state. 

All of that was marginally manageable as long as Iran did not have the “reach” to damage other nations. The development of long range ballistic missiles changed all that, bringing key targets into Iranian strike range. Adding nuclear weapons to the mix would multiply that threat by several orders of magnitude. In addition, the mere presence of those conventional ballistic missiles, and some very capable cruise missiles, protected by modern surface-to-air missiles and the added complicity of being able to use this interwoven series of capabilities to close the Strait of Hormuz via cruise missiles and mines, represented - and represents - a threat that cannot be accepted by the rest of the world.

Denying Iran the capability to mine the strait or attack ships with missiles (ballistic and cruise missiles), as well as attack Arab refineries, Arab oil fields and Arab desalinization plants became not simply a “nice to have,” but a requirement for virtually the entire world, with the notable exception of China and Russia. It also becomes a necessity to not only deny this capability, both in deployed assets and the capability to produce these missiles, but to ensure that such a capability is never rebuilt. 

Add to this the possibility of an Iran with a nuclear weapon and we - the sane 3/4ths of the world - needed to declaw Iran and we need to continue this operation (which is only 2 weeks old) to guarantee that Iran has, in fact, been disarmed.

It’s worth noting that the IAEA reported about 11 months ago that Iran already had enough enriched uranium, that it was just two months away from some further enriching and weapon production. And the story of AQ Khan, the father of the Pakistani bomb, revealed a number of years ago that Iran had, and has, a functional atomic weapon design. It was only lacking the final enrichment process (from 60% to 80+% enriched fuel) before it could begin to make weapons. This was the capability that was denied - for a time - last summer. They must never be allowed to get that close again. 

Finally, sending the right signal to China - that it will not be allowed to support and incite a mad proxy - is vital. Continuing the strikes into Iran as long as is necessary to destroy that regime is the most critical component of the signal.