March 26th, 2026

Politics - Russian Delegation in Washington

- Patriot deliveries continue 

Combat Ops - No confirmation of Russian Spring Offensive

Weather

Kharkiv

60 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, rain showers possible tonight and tomorrow morning, and again starting Sunday night and continuing on and off all next week. Daily lows in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

62 and mostly cloudy, winds gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy for the next week, rain showers possible Monday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs around 60. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

50 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy tomorrow and Saturday morning, then 5 days of mostly cloudy weather. Daily lows for the next week in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

A Russian delegation is in the US to renew talks on the war in Ukraine. Talks were temporarily suspended due to the war in Iran.

Kremlin spokesperson Peskov commented: “We hope that these first tentative steps will, of course, make their contribution to the further revival of our bilateral engagement.”

Peskov also insisted that reports of Russian assistance to Iran were false:

“There are so many lies being spread by the media … Do not pay attention to them.”

President Zelenskyy commented that the US continues to supply Patriot missiles to Ukraine, despite the current war in Iran.

"Deliveries to us were not stopped. I'm very grateful to President Trump, and to his team. But this supply of Patriot missiles is not as large as we need.” 

Zelenskyy also noted that, to date, Ukraine has received “about 600 Patriot missiles.”

Ground Operations

Speculation continues on a Russian Spring Offensive but there is still only speculation in open reporting.

In tactical developments, as has been noted previously, drone effectiveness continues to increase and both sides are slowly expanding the depth to which they are operating FPV drones, what has come to be called the “kill zone.” Russian fiber optic drones have been striking more than 10 miles inside Ukrainian territory for most of 2025 and Ukrainian forces have responded with similar efforts over Russian controlled terrain. This has complicated logistics and supply and ammo dumps, as well as personnel marshaling areas, which continue to be further dispersed and moved further to the rear. The result is that the  already slow tactical pace on the line has slowed even more. Depths vary but “no mans land” - terrain where vehicles cannot safely travel and personnel must move quickly and in very small numbers - is now as wide as 6 miles, and occasionally wider in some areas - that is, soldiers on one side need to move 6 miles under risk of attack from FPV drones before they can engage the enemy.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues in both areas but there were no changes to the lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

North of the Slovyansk - Lyman area there were no changes to the lines.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK 

Fighting continues in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area and Russian recon probes were reported entering eastern Lyman. Russian sources also claim that Russian forces have seized Lypivka and Nykyforivka, both about 9 miles south-east of Slovyansk.

In the Kostiantinivka area Ukrainian forces retook terrain near Stupochkiy (just east of the city) and appear to have reclaimed some terrain inside the city. 

Eastern Kostiantinivka, and parts of the north-east section of the city, seem to have devolved into a patchwork of positions, some controlled by Ukrainian forces, other by Russian forces, and some seemingly traded back and forth at irregular intervals.

Fighting continues to the west of the city, and north of Pokorvsk, but there were no changes in the lines. There does appear to be some agreement among various sources that Russian forces have pushed north-west from Pokrovsk and now control the town of Hryshyne. There are also reports of additional Russian forces moving into the Pokrovsk area and this area has been labeled as one of the area for a possible Russian spring offensive.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues north of Hulyaipole (in the terrain south of Verbove) as the Ukrainian counter offensive continues, but there were no changes in the lines.

Fighting also continues west and south-west of Hulyaipole, and around Myrne, and imagery confirmed some small Russian gains in the Myrne area.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of March 25th-March 26th Russian forces launched at least 152 x  strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 130 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and  Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties include at least 15 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 20 towns.

At least 31,500 residents of the Odessa oblast were without power yesterday as a result of strikes. At the same time tens of thousands of residents of the Belgorod Oblast in Russia were without power following Ukrainian strikes on the Russian power grid

Ukrainian drones (presumably both surface and airborne drones) struck the Turkish owned tanker Altura (flag of Sierra Leone), 15 miles northeast of the northern end of the Bosporous Strait, just outside of Turkish waters. The ship was reportedly struck on or near the bridge, and in the engine room, and had taken some water into the engine room. Turkish coast guard provided assistance. Altura is carrying 140,000 tons of crude oil, loaded at Novorossiysk. The ship is now inport Istanbul.

During the night of March 24th-march 25th Ukrainian forces struck Ust-Luga oil terminals for the second time in 3 nights. Bloomberg and Reuters both report that loading ops at the port (in Primorsk, just outside of St Petersburg) were suspended, but reporting also suggests the suspension was temporary and has probably resumed. 

During the same strikes a Ukrainian drone struck the Purga class patrol icebreaker Dzerzhinsky, extent of damage unknown.

The Russian General Staff stated that they intend to train 70,000 drone operators in calendar year 2026. 

The The Unmanned Systems Forces (Войска беспилотных систем (ВБС) orVoyska bespilotnykh sistem (VBS)) was formally stood up last year and as of last month had 87,000 total personnel, with an announced goal of expanding to 165,000 by the end of this year and a total manning of 210,000 by 2030.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Mar25 Mar26

Brent      94.71   63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 106.40 110.20 106.70

WTI     92.10   59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 103.60 88.48 93.87

NG       3.97      4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.37 2.92 2.98

Wheat      8.52  5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 6.25 5.90 5.95

Ruble     85          80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 78.20 81.00 82.20

Hryvnia 28.6 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.87 43.86

Urals 91.66 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 90.97 98.99 96.31

ESPO 94.52 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 84.99 96.29 105.26

Sokol 99.31 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 101.55 107.32 108.47

Thoughts

Ukrainian forces are reporting increased number of Russian glide bomb strikes in the general Slovyansk and Lyman area and suggest that this is preparation for a renewed “Russian spring offensive.” At the same time there have been repeated suggestions that the Russian spring offensive (or in some cases the summer offensive) will be directed at Kostiantinivka, or north from Pokrovsk. And there have been increasing number of glide bomb attacks on Ukrainian positions west and south-west of Hulyaipole, which could, again, indicate preparations for a more vigorous offensive.

Still, there is nothing yet to prove these offensives are in the works. The Russian Air Force has been steadily increasing its use of the various glide bombs and the rising daily average may simply be a result of Russian bomb production shifting into higher production rates.

In any case, any large Russian offensive will in all likelihood, be lead by an extensive drone and glide bomb strike effort, hitting not only front line positions but also targeting logistics and ammo dumps, personnel marshaling areas and command posts. Glide bombs will also be used to strike any heavily hardened positions. 

v/r pete