May 20th, 2026

Politics - Xi and Putin meet in Beijing

- Nothing definitive on new pipeline 

- Russian nuclear exercise continues 

Combat Ops - Probes and infiltration but no significant changes

- Drone and missile strikes continue.

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly cloudy through Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon chance of thunderstorms.  Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

73 and rain showers, gusting to 20. Showers tomorrow morning then mostly sunny though Sunday, chance of afternoon thunderstorms on Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

75 and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy tomorrow, than partly cloudy through the weekend, chance of rain or thunderstorms has fallen below 10%. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 10kts.

Politics

President Xi and President Putin, meeting in Beijing earlier today, spoke of their strong ties as a "stabilizing force" in the world. Xi called Putin “old friend” and said their relations were based on “mutual respect, justice, and mutually beneficial cooperation,” according to a transcript of his remarks published by Putin’s office.

“China-Russia relations have reached this level because we have been able to deepen political mutual trust and strategic cooperation."

Putin called Xi “dear friend” and noted that their relationship was at an “unprecedentedly high level… In the current tense situation on the international stage, our close cooperation is especially needed.”

But, talk is cheap; China needs oil and natural gas, Russia needs money and technology, and while they said earlier today that they had reached an understanding, the details have not been released, in particular, the most important detail: who pays for it.

The total pipeline, from the Yamal peninsula on the Kara Sea, south-east axons Siberia and across Mongolia to the Shanghai area - some 2,500 miles, has been estimated  to cost from as little as $13 - 14 billion to more than $36 billion (one estimate I saw suggested $46 billion), and will take several years to build, once begun.

Concerning Russia’s ongoing strategic forces exercise (it concludes tomorrow), the exercise reportedly involves 64,000 troops, 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, 73 surface vessels and 13 submarines, to include 8 SSBNs.

Normally, these exercises involve at least 1 ICBM and 1 SLBM launch and 1 or more launches of cruise missiles by bombers. Of note, Putin has said that the new Russian ICBM - Samart (SS-30) is now operational.

Of interest, the US has scheduled a Minuteman III ICBM launch for tomorrow.

The UK has temporarily lifted sanctions on jet fuel and diesel fuel, made from Russian crude, but refined in third countries, as the difficulties continue in the Strait of Hormuz and prices climb in the UK. Sanctions have also been temporarily rolled back on LNG from Russia.

The UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs told the UNSC that at least 15,850 civilians have been killed in the war since February 2022 and that the number is “likely significantly higher."

Ground Operations

Recon probes and infiltration efforts continue along the entire front; imagery confirmed several infiltrations at several points along the line but there were no significant tactical changes to the line, nor have there been any for at least several days. Imagery of the front on the 17th showed Ukrainian forces held some positions outside of Hulyaipilske, south-west of Hulyaipole, but the major take-away is that infiltrations continue across the broad ”gray area” or "no mans land” and there continues to be a confusing checkerboard mix of Russian and Ukrainian positions along the front, and an ever increasing number of drone strikes to interdict logistics and personnel support to these many small elements of both armies. 

Battlefield reporters note that an increasing number of Russian drones are fitted with both electro-optic and thermal imaging systems so as to be more effective at night. Russian operations also continue to use FPV drones in tandem with fiber-optic “sleeper” drones: the fiber optic drone settles onto the grass and waits for the other drone to strike. After the first drone strikes, and Ukrainian elements move, and the “sleeper” drone launches and attempts to strike.

Ukrainian personnel note that Russian drone operators continue to improve targeting from FPV drones, using imagery in real time to improve follow-on targeting, suggesting that the Russian command and control nets (C2) continue to improve and that integration of information from one strike to the next continues to improve. This was something the Russians “lost” when they were denied Starlink access. Apparently, the Russian (and perhaps Chinese?) solution is working.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of May 19th-May 20th and the morning of May 20th, Russian forces launched two waves of strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x ballistic missile (not further identified) and 154 x strike drones launched during the night and another 84 x strike drones launched this morning into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 206 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. It appears the ballistic missile landed in Odessa, with one report suggesting the impact was in an open field about 2.5 miles south of Bilhorod Dnistrovskyi (a port city just south of Odessa).

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There was at least 1 civilian killed and 8 civilians wounded.

Of note, imagery from May 15th appears to show a Russian FAB-3000 glide bomb (6,600lbs) strike on a dam near Kostiantinivka. Russian tacair previously struck dams near Kostiantinivka in February. In that case, and presumably in this, the intention was/is to flood some terrain - and roads, and reduce Ukrainian mobility and logistics in that area.

An air raid warning was issued in four districts in Lithuania this afternoon after radar detected what appeared to be drones in Lithuanian airspace.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian refineries; during the night of May 18th-May 19th, Ukrainian forces again hit the Yaroslavl facility (150 miles north-east of Moscow), and imagery of the Solnechnogorsk Pumping Station outside Moscow showed 4 x large storage tanks on fire.

During the night of May 18th-May 19th Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile (not further identified) and 209 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 180 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. The ballistic missile struck a mall in Chernihiv.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure, as well as the grain export piers in Izmail, on the Danube River.

There were at least 7 civilians killed and 44 civilians wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 May19 May20

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 110.40 107.20

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 103.30 100.70

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.02 3.08

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.69 6.59

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 71.22 71.27

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.18 44.15

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 102.47 101.32

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 111.48 121.28

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 104.09 103.86

The so-called “teapot refineries” in Shandong continue to buy various crude oils - to include Russian ESPO oil - and all at prices above markets elsewhere, but I can't find any consensus as to why they are paying $121 per barrel for ESPO crude.

Thoughts

 

There was an item of note today from Poland that had to do with the drone wars. 

Ukraine’s Ambassador to Poland, Vasyl Bodnar, commented that Ukraine is on track to produce 7 million drones during calendar year 2026 and that they have too many: “We now have, to some extent, overproduction of drones.”

While this is a notable achievement, it raises some questions. Several months ago Gen Syrskyi noted that the goal was to produce 10 million drones per year and that with that many drones, with an expenditure of 30,000 drones per day, they would inflict enough casualties on Russian forces to drive them back.

Whether that last part will happen isn’t the point. When Syrskyi said that, he noted that Ukrainian forces were using 11,000 drones per day across the front lines and that they were in the process of recruiting and training more personnel as drone operators. 

But this statement by Bodnar suggests that a rate of 7 million per year - 19,000 per day - is more than they can use. 

Aviation Week noted that Ukraine produced more than 4 million drones in 2025 - which is roughly the use rate Syrskyi mentioned. Whether this use rate is simply a function of number of trained operators, or limits on the C2 capacity, or their targeting process or all the above isn’t clear, but this massive use of FPV drones - essentially smart artillery - has been key to stopping the Russian gains of 2025. As noted above, the Russians continue to adapt; Ukraine needs to stay ahead of the Russians.

v/r pete