September 3rd, 2026

Politics - Ukraine’s 2 security agencies in gun battle

- Zelenskyy comments on new Russian strike tactics

Combat Ops - No change on ground

- Missile and drone strikes continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

76 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next five days, rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

80 and cloudy. Mostly sunny through the weekend, except Friday night and early Saturday rain showers expected. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

69, cloudy, with light rain, wind gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) had a gunfight yesterday (Wednesday) in the city center of Kyiv (the Dniporvskyi district) after the SBU took into custody Stepan Kaplunov.

Kaplunov is the deputy commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), an all Russian volunteer paramilitary organization (they claim 2,000 troops, most estimates put the number closer to 200) that has conducted or participated in a number of raids into Russia during the course of the war. The RVC works for the HUR.

Per various news reports it appears that the SBU had received a tip of a ”terrorist act” and were conducting a search when they encountered some people who resisted the search; those people were RVC. Three HUR officers were shot in the ensuing gun battle, one has been released from the hospital, the other two remain in the hospital.

Kaplunov was later released, but he described the incident:

“They just shoved me into a black BMW—in other words, to put it bluntly, it was a kidnapping in the truest sense of the word. They didn’t show me any documents or charges; they just put me in a black car and drove off. Later, I was transferred twice more to other vehicles. First to a van, and then to a third car; as far as I can tell, it was an SUV. After that, I was taken—already in handcuffs and with my eyes taped shut—to what was most likely a high-security facility or, so to speak, a secret prison; there, I was placed in a cell and shackled with handcuffs and chains. My eyes also remained covered for the entire 24 hours.”

The SBU has publicly accused Kaplunov of collaborating with Russia’s FSB (successor to the KGB) in an assassination attempt in August of an unnamed Ukrainian figure.

Carnegie Politika, analytic arm of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, offered an interesting interpretation, associating it with President Zelenskyy’s recent changes in security and defense leadership which they say: 

“…suggests a deliberate effort to tighten political coordination across the institutions that control coercive power.”

“The replacements come after anti-corruption investigations once again began reaching senior figures around the president, reviving tensions between the presidential administration and independent anti-corruption institutions.”

“Whether this will translate into renewed pressure on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine remains to be seen, but the personnel changes clearly strengthen the presidential administration’s ability to shape the relationship between the security services and Ukraine’s law-enforcement architecture.”

President Zelenskyy responded to the new Russian tactic of keeping drones in the air over Kyiv all through the day, not only raising the level of anxiety among the population but also giving air defense and civil defense crews no rest.

“We need to step up our response and countermeasures, and accelerate the production of defense systems in Europe—first and foremost, air defense systems against missiles and drones. Europe can be self-sufficient and strong—a great deal has already been done toward this goal in recent years. And only in this way can it protect itself and its way of life. Every day, we are working with our partners on new defense packages.” 

On the 2nd Zelenskyy talked with Chancellor Merz of Germany about the drone incident at Leipzig:

“We discussed the Russian attack on the Leipzig airfield with Friedrich Merz. This is another Russian escalation, and it is important that Germany reacted. Friedrich informed about the measures taken. For his part, we assured him that Ukraine is ready to help with expertise, experience or in other areas where Germany needs it. The teams are now finalizing the text of the Drone Deal, and this, among other things, will definitely add opportunities for the defense of both Germany and Ukraine. We discussed the content of the agreement and when we will be able to sign it.”

Moscow will German cultural centers in Russia following Berlin’s closing Russian cultural centers in Germany, the result the German investigation into the attempted drone attack on aircraft at Leipzig airfield last month.

President Putin commented yesterday on the need to find an end to the war without pressure from other countries:

“Isn’t that the right approach? I believe it is. Russia and Ukraine must first and foremost reach an agreement among themselves, and all other countries are ready to support and assist—not only the United States, but also the countries present here. Is there a chance for this? Yes, I believe there is.”

Ground Operations

Very little change in the ground situation, with Russian forces continuing efforts to slowly push forward and bring Ukrainian forces under fire, Ukrainian forces continuing to hold and counter. Several items are of interest.

Per Ukrainian army reporting, Russian howitzers are now close enough to Slovyansk - “7 to 10 kilometers” (4 - 6 miles) and the Russians have begun shelling the city.

Ukrainian forces also reported - and this was confirmed in imagery - that during the last few days of August Ukrainian forces cleared a Russian infiltration element out of Mykolaivka (about 5 miles due east of Slovyansk). The key point is that it confirmed that Russian forces have managed to infiltrate into Mykolaivka, pushing the front line further west.

Ukrainian forces also report that Russian artillery has begun the shelling of Oleksiyevko and Druzhivka (immediately north-west of Kostiantinivka. It is worth remembering that the Russian way of war is attrition: the primary goal is to inflict casualties - and THEN take ground.

Elsewhere, Ukrainian forces report additional Russian infiltrations into Dobripillia and Hannivka (north of Pokrovsk), and into Druzhivka.

Fighting continues along the rest of the line, with multiple probes and counter attacks, but there were no changes to the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces continues to strike Russian oil and logistics centers, and supporting assets.

On the 1st they struck the Ust-Luga oil export terminal (north-west of St Petersburg).

On the 2nd Ukrainian naval forces struck the support ship (a converted offshore supply vessel, 297 feet LOA) Nefrit in port, Sochi harbor. The ship was struck with an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV).  Extent of damage not known.

Russian naval forces continue to “impress” with their lack of simple physical barriers to prevent this sort of thing. 

Ukrainian forces also continued to strike in or near airports in the Moscow area.

On the 3rd Sheremetyevo and Vnukovov airports’ operations were temporarily suspended again. Ukrainian forces also struck port facilities in Sochi.

On the 2nd Sheremetyevo and Vnukovov airports’ operations were temporarily suspended (Moscow area airfields), and the airfield in Sofia also was temporarily closed.

Ukrainian missiles also struck an aircraft engine plant in Perm.

Russian Forces

During the night of September 2nd-September 3rd Russian forces launched more 163 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 135 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Khmelnitskyi, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure, particularly port facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 9 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 25 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

During the night of September 1st-September 2nd Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 2 x Kh-59/69 missiles, and 114 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 135 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Ternopil, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure, particularly port facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 24 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 7 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of Sumy Oblasts.

During the night of August 31st-September 1st Russian forces launched more than 5 x Iskander ballistic missiles, multiple Zircon, Kalibr, Kh-310 and Banderol cruise missiles, and 218 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 5 ballistic missiles, 5 cruise missiles, 2 Banderol loitering cruise missiles and 187 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnitskyi, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts. Another border post was struck, this a post on the Romanian border. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure, particularly port facilities. A power outage was reported in Odessa.

Civilian casualties included at least 8 killed and 17 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 6 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast.

Per the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces launched more than 2,800 jet powered strike drones in August. Interception rates for propeller driven over the past 6 months was between 90 and 95%, but for the jet powered drones the interception rate is currently 60%. For August, some 56% of the strike drones were jet powered. 

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9          Aug7 Sep1 Sep3

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 92.06 96.53

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 87.82 92.19

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14  3.12   2.64 2.90 2.99

Wheat     8.52           6.14   5.82          6.06 6.35 7.76 7.39

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 86.70 86.59

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.47 44.62

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 77.99 84.85

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 93.37 94.63

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.17 88.82

Thoughts

The possible implications of the gun battle in the streets of Kyiv seem to look like a Robert Ludlum novel. But the suggestion here is that there is an internal - now bloody - fight taking place for control of the corruption investigations. There have been scores of stories and hints and allegations. But if it were to be clearly demonstrated that the upper reaches of the Ukrainian government was as corrupt as some insist, it is hard to imagine that support would continue for the Zelenskyy government, and the Ukrainian people would pay the bill.

v/r pete