September 4th, 2026

Politics - Witkoff, Kushner to Moscow  and Kyiv, 5, 6 September 

- Kherson without power (See Thoughts)

Combat Ops - Marginal changes

- Strikes continue

Economics  - China buys oil at a premium

Weather

Kharkiv

77 and mostly sunny. Partly to mostly cloudy through Monday, rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds Westerly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

82 and sunny. Mostly sunny through the weekend, except Sunday morning showers. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

73 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through Monday, rain showers Sunday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 60s to 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Police found an improved explosive device (IED) at an electrical substation in Dormagen-Gorh, Germany (about 10 miles northwest of Cologne, Germany). The device had a timer, was sitting next to high voltage lines but there was - first report, no fuse.

Ambassador Witkoff and Mr. Kushner will meet with President Putin on Saturday, and President Zelenskyy on Sunday, September 6th.

President Zelenskyy commented:

“I just held a meeting with the team engaged in negotiations with the envoys of the U.S. President. We are in communication with them virtually 24/7 and are now preparing for meetings.”

“They confirmed they will have a meeting in Moscow and another one in Kyiv. We expect the latter to take place in the coming days. This is very important. It is important that America remain actively engaged.”

The school year has begun in occupied Ukraine; children are returning to school with curricula and textbooks approved by the Russian Ministry of Education.

Ground Operations

Both sides continue to trade small gains. In north-east Kharkiv oblast, north of where the Oskil river crosses the Ukraine - Russia border, Russian forces continued to probe westward from the border towards Velykyi Burluk and Ukrainian forces countered. Russian sources claim that Russian forces control 3 small towns north of Velykyi Burluck, but that is almost assuredly a stretch. What is taking place is the oft repeated rock soup process of recon probes, infiltrations, drone and artillery strikes TTP. At the same time, probes and infiltration elements have been sent south-east from Russian positions east of Vovchansk.

While some bloggers suggest the Russian will cut off and encircle Ukrainian units in the north-east of the oblast, nothing moves that quickly here. Rather, it is more of the same, slow, grinding attrition.

Further south, Ukrainian forces cleared several forested areas near Zapidne and Dvorichne (about 8 miles north of Kupyansk). There are reports of clearing a certain area of terrain, which really doesn’t matter. What does matter is that Ukrainian forces now control woodlands on either side of the P-79 roadway which should provide some sort of fire control of that roadway and thereby squeeze the GLOC into Russian positions north of Kupyansk, particularly as autumn rains approach, forcing logistics support back onto roads.

Ukrainian forces continue to gain ground just north of the Vovcha river, east of Fillia, as well as south of the Vovcha, south-east of Oleksandrivka, taking advantage of thin Russian lines as Russians have concentrated forces elsewhere. Much of this land was taken in the successful counter-attack in March, and they are now clearing positions and straightening lines, which needs to be hurried before autumn rains start.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

During the last 24 hours Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in Sochi.

As of 1100 this morning (EDT) “Flight Aware” showed flight activity in and around most Moscow airports.

Ukrainian forces continues to strike Russian oil and logistics centers, and supporting assets.

On September 1st they struck the Ust-Luga oil export terminal (north-west of St Petersburg).

On the 2nd Ukrainian naval forces struck the support ship (a converted offshore supply vessel, 297 feet LOA) Nefrit in port, Sochi harbor. The ship was struck with an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV).  Extent of damage not known.

Russian naval forces continue to “impress” with their lack of simple physical barriers to prevent this sort of thing. 

Russian Forces

During the night of September 3rd-September 4th Russian forces launched more than 121 x strike drones as well as an unspecified number Kh-31p anti-radiation missiles into Ukrainian air space. There is no report on number shot down.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblast; a power outage was reported in Kramatorsk.

In addition, a strike drone hit the HQ of SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) HQ (Volodymyrska Street in Kyiv, opposite St. Sophia Cathedral)

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns with glide bombs.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 29 wounded.

5 border towns in Sumy Oblast were struck with Russian artillery fire.

During the night of September 2nd-September 3rd Russian forces launched more than 163 x strike drones as well as an unspecified number of Banerol loitering weapons into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 135 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnitskyi, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure, particularly port facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 26 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 25 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

Russian forces have, for the last several days, strung out their strikes into Kyiv over the course of the day. Yesterday, the city was under an “Air Alert” a cumulative total of 15 hours and 10 minutes. But more than that, the attacks were spaced so that there was little chance to get any rest, the tactic being to launch an attack, keep drones in the area for an horror two or three, then a gap for an hour or two, and then send in more drones. The result was not simply 15 hours in the shelters. Rather, the first alarm was sounded at 0003 in the morning and the “all clear” was sounded 2312.

As Andrii Kovalenko, director for the Center for Countering Disinformation noted: "The goal is to exhaust the air defense and the population.”

Spain’s ForMin Alvarez confirmed that Spain is working on providing Patriot missiles to Ukraine. I believe Spain has three batteries, but how many missiles they have remaining in their inventory, and what they believe they need to hold onto, remains to be seen.

Ukraine has a 2 billion euro ($2.3 billion) loan from the EU to buy Patriot missiles.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Sep3 Sep4

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 96.53 93.69

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 92.19 89.17

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12           2.64 2.99 2.95

Wheat     8.52            6.14   5.82           6.06  6.35 7.39 7.45

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 86.59 86.38

Hryvnia 28.6        43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.62 44.52

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 84.85 86.70

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 94.63 94.52

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.82 88.94

Chinese refiners are, per Bloomberg, paying as much as a $10 premium over the listed spot price on ESPO oil (that is, bids over $104 per barrel) as they try to make up for the loss of Iranian crude. Further pressuring the price, last year China purchased 88% of all ESPO oil, but India, which is also facing shortfalls due to the on-off closures of the Strait of Hormuz, is now bidding for ESPO oil, and the competition and demand is forcing the prices higher. China so far this year has purchased 83% of ESPO oil, India 16%

Thoughts

According to Oleksandr Prokudin, Military Governor of Kherson Oblast, the entire city of Kherson (population of 279,000 in 2022) is currently receiving enough electricity to run a single supermarket:

"Now, the whole city is receiving electricity at the level of one supermarket in Kyiv. In other words, we do not have the capacity we used to have to supply electricity."

He compared Kherson this year and Kherson last year:

"If you compare it with Kyiv, which was without electricity last year during the heating season, Kherson was living normally because we had been building defenses since 2023. There was only one week without electricity, and people hope it will continue to be that way. But I am telling you the truth: it will not.”

"Children who are here now are not only exposed to the danger of having to live underground, walk under nets and run across streets, but will also have to live without electricity and the internet, and their right to education will be disrupted. And their parents are neglecting this.”

As you may recall, on August 26th and 27th the Kherson Combined Heating and Power Plant was struck repeatedly with glide bombs and was destroyed. This, on top of the other image the city has suffered in the past year (in particular) led Prokudin to recommend that anyone who had the ability to leave the oblast should do so before the cold weather arrives:

“Therefore, frankly, we can no longer count on the combined heat and power plant or other critical infrastructure facilities operating normally this winter…

So we must be honest: Kherson may be left without electricity and heating not for hours or days, but for an extended period.

“I again appeal to the residents of Kherson, especially families with children and elderly people: if you have the means, relatives or friends in safer regions – leave."

Kherson used to receive power from the Kherson CHP, the Nakhodka dam and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and from the power grid to the north and west. The Nakhodka dam is destroyed, the Kherson CHP is destroyed and the ZNPP is controlled by Russia. 

Kherson’s estimated population right now is roughly 60,000, and perhaps 70 - 75,000 in the total urban-suburban area, and perhaps anther 70,000 remaining in the rest of the oblast, a total of no more than 145,000 in the entire oblast, west of the Dnepr river - and maybe a good deal less. And that number is 6 months old… This is down from well over 500,000 west of the river in 2021.

As the British did during WWII, moving out of London all children and folks who needed extra help to get to a shelter, it would seem they need to move children et al to western Ukraine. And this would seem to apply not just to Kherson by perhaps to Kharkiv, Poltava and perhaps even Kyiv.

v/r pete