October 19th, 2026       British Surrender at Yorktown 1781

NEXT SUMMARY WEDNESDAY, the 21st

Politics - Protests  at the Mayor’s office

- Starshield and Intelligence support

- Zelenskyy says Trump withholding Patriots

Combat Ops - Little change on ground

- Strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

59 and cloudy. Partly cloudy to cloudy all week, light rain Tuesday night. Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

63 and rain, winds gusting over 25. Rains taper off tonight, cloudy or partly cloudy all week. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the mid 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

55 and rain, gusting over 25. Rain tapers off early tonight, more rain on Wednesday. Partly c to cloudy all week. Daily in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Several hundred to several thousand people (sources vary in the estimate of the crowd) gathered in front of Mayor Klitschko’s office to demand his resignation, after President Zelenskyy accused him of failing to prepare the city for winter.

Klitschko responded by accusing the central government (the Zelenskyy administration) of failure to collaborate on city services and slow-rolling on the transfer of funds and then lying about it. The Mayor also asked why the central government has failed to provide adequate air defenses for the city.

A second crowd also appeared, in support of Klitschko and demonstrated against the demonstrators.

President Zelenskyy insists Starlink - Starshield restrictions remain in place and that the system will not support flights in excess of 160KPH (100 kts).

Further revelations suggest this is different than it appears.

Starshield, is an encrypted, jam-resistant service similar to Starlink but developed for the US military. In December 2024 a contract was signed with the Pentagon that provided a total of 3,000 terminals and Starshield support to Ukraine for 2025.

It appears (though there are gray areas) that that contract was, for whatever reason, not renewed, and accordingly expired. So, when SecStare Rubio noted that Ukraine does not have access to Starshield, he meant they had no contract. 

Starshield, when provided to Ukrainian forces at the end of 2024, was provided with certain limitations, unlike the system as presented to the US military. (It would be a reasonable leap to assume that all the functions of Starshield have been made known generically to Ukrainian forces, and that they have asked (probably repeatedly) for those capabilities).

Starlink is a commercial system that has many of the same features as Starshield but is not designed for military applications, though it has been used for such purposes before (to include - illegally - by Russian forces).

It is not clear but it appears that Ukrainian forces retained some access to Starshield into 2026, after the contract ended. 

At the same time, there was, apparently, no change in the intelligence support provided to Ukraine by the Pentagon 

Meanwhile, President Trump posted this on his 

My decision on Russia is a very simple one. I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don't want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table. Great progress is being made, and that includes current hostage negotiations! Signing that document at this time will do that, and I can sign it later, or any time that I want! Perhaps more importantly, Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran, compared to what they could be doing, and I want to keep it that way, and will, unless stupid people get in the way. Lastly, Zelenskyy is using Diesel Refineries in Russia as a target, knowing that these attacks are seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States. Farmers, ranchers, and businesses of all kinds are suffering greatly from this, but Russia is, nevertheless, sending, at a low price, millions of barrels of diesel to the World. Zelenskyy doesn't care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him, and that Crooked Joe Biden gave him in the past, he doesn't want to end this war, and probably never did. He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now. His country is in shambles, a large portion of his land is lost, his oceans and seas are gone, and his male population is low, wounded, and/or dead. I WANT THIS WAR END! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Earlier today President Zelenskyy accused President Trump of withholding Patrito missiles from Ukraine:

"We have paid for this weapons. Only a portion has been approved by the US, while the rest has not. And this is not a technical malfunction.”

He noted that the US is only providing Ukraine with 12 Patriot missiles per month — 1/4 of what was provided under President Biden.

Ground Operations

Overall there has been little change on the ground over the last 4 days.

There are several spots - one spot near the border east of Sumy, two east of east of Slovyansk, where Ukrainian forces were imaged in terrain reported by Russian bloggers as under Russian control. In these three cases the terrain noted was either fields or woods outside of towns, and represented no tactically significant change.

Similarly, Russian forces were noted to have conduced infiltrations and recon probes inot terrain in the Kostiantinivka area, Dobripillia area, and near Orikhiv, but again, none of this was tactually significant.

Two items are of note:

Multiple reports of small unit movements by both sides in the Kostiantinivka area, and at the north-west end of the city; Russian forces do not fully control the city but Russian presence in much of the city is increasing in density and Ukrainian control is now a narrow salient into the city about 5 miles long and less than a mile wide, printed north-west to south-east. The rest of the city is the now expected “checkerboard of Russian and Ukrainian positions, but the Russian density is slowly increasing. It will become increasingly costly to keep the salient open, particularly as logistics support will, for the next several months, be forced onto roads and hence more easily targeted.

Still, Ukrainian resistance inside the city is said to be holding ground; expect Russian use of guided 1100lb bombs to increase.

And:

More reports have surfaced of Russian raids on the islands of the lower Dnepr River, with multiple Russian raider craft (rubber boots) landing on islands near the mouth of the river. As usually for such events the reporting lacks all detail, but there is some new effort on the river and it bears closer watching.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of October 17th-October 18th Ukrainian forces conducted a large raid on the city of St. Petersburg, the Leningrad Oblast generals, and Crimea, and Russian air defense forces claiming to have shot down a total of 1,015 drones. 

Targets included a data and server center, the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, a large commercial warehouse, and a bridge.

During the night of October 16th-October 17th Ukrainian forces struck a Gazprom facility in Surgut (about 1200 miles east of Moscow).

During the night of October 15ht-16th Ukrainian forces struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery (about 1025 miles south-east of Moscow).

President Zelenskyy commented on a ceasefire on oil refineries in the wake of Russian strikes on Kyiv, noting “We’re done.” Ukraine forces then struck the Russian oil refinery at Ryazan (about 100 miles south-east of Moscow)

Ukrainian forces also struck the data center for the Russian State Bank in Saratov.

Russian Forces

During the period from October 18th-October 19th Russian forces launched multiple Iskander ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Banderol loitering munitions, as well as 269 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it had shot down or defeated 4 cruise missiles and 243 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, Rivne, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 dead and 19 wounded.

During the period from October 17th-October 18th Russian forces launched multiple Iskander ballistic missiles and 180 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 152 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Rivne, Lviv, Lutsk, Odessa, Ternopil, Volyn, and Zaporizhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 7 dead and 17 wounded.

During the period from October 16th-October 17th Russian forces launched at least 23 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 x Kalibr cruise missiles, an unknown number of Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, and 332 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 4 Kaley cruise missiles and 289 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. 6 Iskander struck the Zaporistal steel mill. 

Civilian casualties included at least 3 dead and 47 wounded.

During the period from October 15th-October 16th Russian forces launched at least 149 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 5 dead and 24 wounded.

Two more tankers were struck by drones while in Romanian waters:

MV Sea Destiny (Marshall Islands Flag, 623 feet, 55,000 DWT) was struck by a drone inside Romanian territorial waters.

MV Dania J (Tanzania Flag, 279 feet, 3,500DWT) was struck inport Izmail, Ukraine. In both cases the types of drones were not specified.

Seven sailors are still missing of the tanker Wine Trader.

Technology

The UAF reports that Russian forces launched some 3,520 jet-powered strike drones, and 4,900 piston engines strike drones in September; the UAF noted that it engaged 90% of the piston engine powered drones (roughly 4,400 of 4,900) but only 54% of the jet-powered drones (roughly 1900 of 3,520).

Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that some Russian long-range strike drones are being fitted with incendiary warheads; the drones normally carry a 22lb (10kg) explosive warhead. The size of the incendiary warhead was not given.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9         Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct16 Oct19

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 106.00 107.80

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 97.98 100.50

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64 2.95 3.16 3.11 3.14

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46 6.86 6.57 6.60

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 85.55 82.63

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 44.90 45.09

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 114.30 111.06

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 131.92 139.86

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 112.20 113.70

ESPO Forward (January deliveries) are 130.93.

Thoughts

Concerning the US importation of diesel fuel, the total purchase of the Russian diesel fuel will total cost perhaps $6 billion. The US has purchased other energy related material from Russia during the course of the last five years to include: between $3 and $4 billion in the first half of 2022, and a similar total amount ($3-4 billion) in enriched uranium over the course of 2022 through 2026, so, not quite $ 8 billion through this year, plus the roughly $6 billion in diesel fuel, a total of perhaps $14 billion in 5 years.

During that period the EU has purchased $209 billion (the European Commission’s number) or $266 billion (per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (an independent Finnish group - CREA)), or $321 billion per Russia’s Energy ministry.

European nations continue to buy energy from Russia. Belgium, France, Hungary, Slovakia and Spain are still buying natural gas from Russia and will continue to do so through December 31st, when it finally becomes illegal in the EU. 100% of Belgium’s LNG purchases in July were from Russia.

So far this year the EU has purchased some $21 billion in energy from Russia in 2026, to include 12.2 million tons of LNG (about $8 billion). Current estimates are that Russian energy sales to the EU for 2026 will total around $25 billion.

Turkey - NATO ally - will, it’s estimated, purchase between $27 and $29 billion in energy from Russia this year.

v/r pete