November 12th, 2026

Politics - Witkoff, Kushner meet with Putin, heading to Dublin

- EU force exercising in Poland

- Starshield problems

Combat Ops - Strikes continue

- Few changes on the ground

Thoughts - Ukrainian Casualties

Weather

Kharkiv

39 and cloudy.  Cloudy through the weekend, some clearing Sunday afternoon, partly cloudy Monday and Tuesday, then more rain. Friday will be warmer, highs in the upper 50s, then a return to daily lows and highs in the 30s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

48 and rain, gusting to 20. Cloudy through the Saturday, Partly cloudy through Tuesday, then clouding up, rain at the end of next week. Warm tomorrow (in the low 60s), then a return to lows in the 30s, highs in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

39 and rain. Rain tomorrow cloudy through Saturday, mostly clear Sunday and Monday, then more rain. In the 50s tomorrow, then daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff and Mr Kushner met with President Putin in Moscow earlier today, The two men will fly to Dublin tonight to meet with President Zelenskyy.

Mr Kushner commented:

“We were able to do a good exchange of ideas—some areas we see places where we can find compromises, others we need to have more discussions.”

“Today we achieved an important humanitarian breakthrough, with Ukraine and Russia agreeing in principle to what will be the largest prisoner exchange of the war. This will reunite families, build trust, and create momentum toward peace.”

Troops (army, navy, air force) from 11 European countries (Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, and the UK) are participating in an exercise in Poland that is designed to prepare them for a post-Ukraine war security role inside Ukraine.

Exercise Koalicia totals about 2,800 personnel and will run from November 9th through November 22nd.

LtGen Thomas Bateman, British Army, commander of Multinational Force Ukraine, commented:

"This exercise will show that the Multinational Force-Ukraine is a real, capable, readily deployable force that represents a serious commitment from Coalition of the Willing nations to Ukraine's long-term stability and security.”

"The force will be more ready every day to support Ukraine when the fighting ends, ensuring the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in the strongest possible position to deter future aggression."

UK MOD stated that he exercise will focus on moving, supplying and protecting forces inside Ukraine as Ukraine rebuilds its forces.

UK Defense Secretary Streeting noted:

"This isn't a hypothetical plan, it's a real force, ready to help Ukraine once the fighting stops…By leading this work with our allies, we are protecting the UK and Europe for the long term and delivering on our commitment to keep the country safe. Ukraine's security is our security, and we will stand with them for as long as it takes.”

President Zelenskyy reported new problems with Starshield performance inside Ukraine.

"These are not random errors but a systematic speed restriction. For us, this primarily means significantly greater difficulty intercepting Russian jet-powered drones. Unfortunately, some strikes have already gotten through because our interceptors cannot reach sufficient speeds and fail to intercept them in time.”

“There were reports from Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mykhailo Drapatyi. Unfortunately, our units have been recording significant disruptions in StarShield’s operation over Ukrainian territory for several days now: along the entire front line and in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine. Specifically, StarShield is operating with a system-wide speed limit of 161 kilometers per hour [100 miles per hour].”

"For us, this primarily means a significant challenge in intercepting Russian jet drones. Unfortunately, there have already been hits because the interceptors cannot reach sufficient speed and are unable to intercept them in time. Unfortunately, this helps the Russians kill more Ukrainians and deliver more precise strikes against Ukraine.”

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kallas believes she could represent Europe in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. She commented:

"When it comes to European security, then the treaties are very very concrete. It is Antonio Costa and it is the high representative and vice president [Kallas] who is representing Europe in security matters.” 

President Putin has proposed an humanitarian mission (a la Oleshky last week) to provide relief to civilians remaining in Kostiantinivka. This is a bit of theater by Putin, essentially asserting that Russian forces have control over the whole city, which they don’t. But, they do have control over all but small areas, and the Ukrainian elements dug into their positions and holding do not have the capacity to provide substantive aid to the remaining civilians - estimated to be about 500 people total.

Putin’s comment:

”There is a town in Donbas called Kostiantynivka where there are still around 400-500 civilians. Let's do the same thing we did in Oleshky and invite representatives of the foreign press, including American journalists."

"If the Ukrainian authorities control this city, as they claim, then let them ensure security.”

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Armed Services Committees released a letter that presents Witkoff’s and Kushner’s efforts as undermining Ukraine, and calling for President Trump to correct their course of action. Text:

"Ukraine continues to inflict massive casualties on the Russian Army and cripple the Russian economy, while U.S. Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff continue to undermine Ukraine's ability to negotiate a just and lasting settlement in Putin's brutal and illegal invasion. As if that weren't bad enough, they are also undermining NATO, the most successful alliance in history. Their parroting of Kremlin talking points on renegotiating European security and possibly pulling back from Eastern Europe is totally unacceptable to the continued viability of NATO and the national security of the United States.

"This is in addition to the constant pressure from Kushner and Witkoff for Kyiv to surrender sovereign Ukrainian territory, including its fortress belt - key defensive positions preventing a rapid advance westward. They have repeatedly bypassed, ignored, and undercut the U.S. Intelligence Community and State Department. Their Trumpian transactional approach, in which they are treating a nation's fight for survival like a real estate deal, threatens global stability. They and Trump are working for Putin, not for the benefit of the people of the United States. They are also ignoring the message those same American people just delivered to the White House and the Republican Party. The voters have made clear, to a historic degree, their repudiation of the Trump Administration's blatant corruption and laser focus on self-enrichment ahead of the American interest. Even before this repudiation, Congress and the American people overwhelmingly supported Ukraine and NATO, not only because it is smart, but because it is right. Congress and the American people also understand that Putin responds only to strength. Negotiating away all the pressure from him while undercutting Ukraine has not and will never be successful. Pushing a post-war security agreement that seeks to destroy NATO's post-Cold War mandate of a 'Europe whole, free, and at peace,' benefits only Russia and threatens grave consequences for us and the rest of the world.

"The Administration has claimed to be in favor of 'peace through strength.' The president [sic] should inform Kushner and Witkoff that surrendering in Ukraine and

appeasing Putin will result in neither peace nor strength. "

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

Yesterday Ukrainian forces again struck Ust Luga oil port facility (60 miles west of St Petersburg). Imagery confirmed fires at the facility

On November 10th Ukrainian forces struck the oil pumping facility at Ust Luga, about 60 miles west of St Petersburg, and the oil refinery in Omsk, about 1,200 miles east of Moscow.

On November 9th Ukrainian forces struck the 123rd Aircraft Repair faculty in Staraya (about 125 miles south of St. Petersburg, a facility that is major maintenance site for the A-50 Mainstay (Russia’s AWACS aircraft).

Russian Forces

During the night of November 11th-November 12th Russian forces launched at least 8 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, an undisclosed number of Zircon missiles, an undisclosed number of Banderol and Dan-T loitering munitions and 123 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it defeated 89 drones and 5 loitering munitions.

Glide bombs again struck targets in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 5 wounded.

During the night of November 10th-November 11th Russian forces launched an undisclosed number of KH-59/69 cruise missiles and Banderol loitering minions, and 163 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed in intercepted 130 drones, 14 Banderols, and 1 cruise missile.

During the day on the 11th Russian forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, an unreported number of Banderol loitering munitions and 155 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW 14 Banderols and 124 drones.

Glide bombs struck targets in Zaporizhzhia.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts.

A power outage and water outage was reported in Pavlohrad.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 20 wounded.

Technology 

Russian drone manufacturer ZALA (a state owned company) is expanding the use of AI to improve autonomous performance, with the use of “Arsenal,” which provides onboard Edge AI hardware and software. ZALA claims this will allow onboard video and thermal processing and autonomous target ID.

Ground Operations

Infiltrations continue along the front but there were few confirmed changes to the line and no tactically significant changes.

RuAF Glide bomb strikes on forward bridges are, per Ukrainian reports, increasing in number as Russian forces attempt to cut off logistics support to forward Ukrainian elements.

Russian forced had confirmed gains in the area south of Dobropillia and near Bilytske (north of Pokrovsk).

South-east of Orikhiv, Ukraine’s 118th Motorized Infantry Brigade evacuated the last resident of the town of Mala Tokmachka. 

That town has been pounded on and rolled over regularly since spring of 2022; how anyone remained in that town is beyond me…

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9 Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Nov10 Nov11 Nov12

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 89.80 93.77 93.29

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 84.69 87.90 86.32

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95   3.16   3.23 3.35 3.30

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46 6.86  5.88 5.94 5.93

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 82.99 82.59 82.93

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.36 45.30 45.42

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 72.96 72.16 72.18

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 118.57 117.49 118.76

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 99.38 100.41 99.95

ESPO Forward, 12 November - 115.71

Thoughts

Last week there was a substantive report, based on Russian documents, that suggested that Russian KIAs numbered 393,000 and 450,000. As I noted at the time, that is consistent with the reporting from Mediazone, the one independent source with a substantive methodology to track Russian casualties.

I also mentioned that this number of KIAs is of the same magnitude as Ukrainian KIAs. 

It seems a paper was published last February (that I missed) by Finland’s National Defense University (NDU) that had done what I had been doing: using number of amputations to determine number of KIAs.

As I have mentioned in the past, the number of amputees is a workable indicator of number of KIAs. This first came to my notice in August 2023 when it was reported that more than 50,000 soldiers had lost a limb. A little digging showed that a rough ratio of 3 KIAs for every living amputee is a very good ratio, indicative of an aggressive MEDEVAC / CASEVAC presence on the battlefield. US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan collectively  suffered some 5400 KIAs and there were some 1700 amputee, a 3.2 to 1 ratio - under the US MEDEVAC / CASEVAC umbrella, which does not exist in Ukraine. But this would suggest that by August 2023 Ukraine already had well in excess of 150,000 KIAs.

By the beginning of May 2025 more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers had had amputations. What is of note is that the number of amputations remained above 2,500 per month, and probably is near 3,000. Simple math would suggest that there are at least 448,000 Ukrainian KIAs as of November 1st; this year as a conservative bottom number, and in all likelihood, the number of KIAs is substantially higher than that. 

The author of the NDU paper (Alexander Grable) also addressed Ukrainian amputations; his estimates yielded an estimate of 403,000 Ukrainian KIAs as of November 2024 - two years ago, and as many as 517,000 KIAs as of that date. Using Grable’s more conservative number as a baseline and extending that through today (2 years later) would suggest Ukrainian KIAs now exceed 700,000.

And as has been repeatedly pointed out, the two forces are using the same weaponry and basically the same tactics, and by all accounts Russian forces are using as many drones, and more artillery. The numbers should be similar, and it is credible to believe Ukrainian casualties exceed Russian.

It also suggests that the repeated reports of tremendous Russian casualties, in particular the report last week of the”proof” of the number of Russian KIAs,  are an effort to turn everyone’s head away from the depth of the blood bath.

v/r pete