April 21st, 2026

Politics - EU financial assistance package advances

- Druzhba pipeline to being pumping again today

- Ukraine needs laborers 

Combat Ops - Marginal gains

Weather

Kharkiv

48 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy all week, rain Thursday afternoon and all day Friday. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

41 and cloudy, with rain showers, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through the week, rain showers again Thursday afternoon. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the mid 50s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

43 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy this week, rain Thursday afternoon. Daily lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s, daily highs in the low to mid 50s. Winds north-west or west, 10-15kts.

Politics

The €90 billion ($104 billion) financial assistance package for Ukraine has been added to the April 22nd agenda for the EU’s Committee of Permanent Representatives. If the amendment to the budget is approved, the funding can then proceed as scheduled.

The issue was placed on the agenda “without discussion,” which normally indicates that there is agreement among all members. If approved, the final step is a formal written agreement.

Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for Economy and Productivity, Implementation and Simplification, commented this morning that the first tranche of funds could be provided to Ukraine in late May or early June.

At the same time, Ukraine is set to resume pumping Russian oil to Hungary today through the Druzhba pipeline, which President Zelenskyy had refused to do as long as Hungary’s PM Orban refused to vote for the financial assistance package.

Estonian ForMin Tsahkna refuted recent comments by President Zelenskyy that Russia is preparing to attack the Baltic states. 

"We do not see Russia concentrating its troops or in any way preparing for a military attack on NATO or the Baltic states - quite the opposite. Russia is not in a very strong position on the Ukrainian front, nor economically.”

Saying that such comments play into Russian propaganda, he added:

"This is, of course, unpleasant and, of course, fuels the Russian narrative that "We are the winning side, we are advancing, and you are retreating and losing”.”

Mr. Budanov, President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, announced plans to bring migrant workers to Ukraine from Africa, with Ukraine to draft new laws to assist in legal entry and residence for foreign workers, stressing that the new laws need to make it easier for workers to stay, and work, in Ukraine.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV

Marginal gains were confirmed just outside of Varachyne (due north of Sumy city) but there were no significant changes in the line.

Imagery confirmed successful Russian infiltration in the Vilcha area, north of Kharkiv, but there were no charges to the front lines.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Fighting continues in the general Kupyansk area but there were no charges to the line.

Further south, in the area north-east of Borova, imagery confirmed Ukrainian activity near Lozova; Ukrainian infantry appears to have gained a small position in the tree line about a mile south of the small village, but they also appear to be surrounded by Russian elements.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

There are numerous reports of troops in contact in the area just east and south-east of Rai Oleksandrivka (8-10 miles south-east of Slovyansk) but there was no change in the line.

Multiple reports of troops in contact in and around Novomarkove (a village of perhaps 40 - 50 houses, about 6 miles north of Chasiv Yar) and it seems that they are engaged in a close, see-saw battle, trading positions back and forth, as Ukrainian forces try to maintain a toe-hold on positions east of the Donets canal and the Russians try to clear them out of that terrain.

There are several confirmed Russian probes into Kostiantinivka, as Russian forces continue to slowly probe into the center of the city (west of the T0504 roadway), with one recon element reaching perhaps a mile north-west of the roadway along the northern edge of the city.

Further west, imagery confirmed Russian probes into the terrain south-east of Dobropillia, but there were no changes in the lines in the Pokorvsk area or further west or to the south-west.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed Russian probes into Ukrainian terrain west of Hulyaipole, and fighting continues along most of the line of contact, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of April 20th-April 21st Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 143 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 116 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Sumy oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and civilian infrastructure.

Civilian casualties included at least  2 killed and 30 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 16 towns.

During the night of April 19th-April 20th Russian forces launched at least 142 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 113 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.

The Security Service (SBU) conducted a drone strike on an oil transit facility near Samara; damage is unknown but a fire was reported.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr20 Apr21

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 94.86 95.00

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 88.30 87.22

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.72 2.67

Wheat      8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.03 6.05

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 75.26 74.88

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 44.20 44.03

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 102.67 98.05

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 96.51 100.43

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 99.75 99.12

Thoughts

Sweden’s Military Intelligence director reports that Russia’s economy has failed to recover despite the recent spike in oil prices, and would need oil prices to hold above $100 per barrel for a year to eliminate its budget deficit.

I suppose the numbers are correct, but it’s worth considering that Russia (per the International Monetary Fund) has a budget deficit of about 2% of GDP, compared to France 6%, UK 4.2%, Germany 2%, Poland 5.6%, Finland, 3.7%, Sweden 1.2%, and the US 7.5%.

Russia’s economy is a bit of a mess. But it’s not going to mean that they stop fighting any time soon. There’s one thing that intelligence agencies the world over are very, very good at: making lousy predictions about economies, especially economic troubles causing radical changes in strategic direction.

The worker problem, and the need to bring in workers from Africa, while good for those folks who get a job, is a demonstration of the demographic crisis Ukraine is facing.

But this isn’t new. Early last fall, Tymofii Mylovanov, former Ukrainian Minister of Economics and current director of the Kyiv School of Economics, forecast that Ukraine’s population will continue to shrink, and may fall below 15 million by 2035.

Mylovanov suggested that if the war ended soon, people may start to return to Ukraine. But recent polling in Europe suggests that most of the Ukrainians who left in the course of the last 4 years are now settled and that only a small percentage, no more than 1/3rd and probably less, would return if there were a peace soon. And the longer the war lasts, the fewer that will return.

At that time he suggested that, once the war ends, Ukraine would need 10 million workers to repair the damage and return the country to some sort of economic health.

In 1992 Ukraine had a population of 52 million. By 2022 the population had fallen to 43 million. The current estimate (the figure the World Bank uses) is 31.4 million, though some estimates place it below 30 million.

If Russia’s intention was to destroy Ukraine, it seems as if they are succeeding… 

v/r pete