April 3rd, 2026

Politics

President Zelenskyy discussed the possibility of an Easter ceasefire (presumably Orthodox Easter - April 12th) on the phone with Ambassador Witkoff, Mr. Kushner, Sen. Graham, and NATO SecGen Rutte and has also discussed it with several European leaders, but it has not appeared to gain any traction with the Kremlin. 

The EU will provide 1.4 billion Euros $1.6 billion) to Ukraine, interest from frozen Russian assets. 

Combat Operations

There has been little change on the ground in the last two days (more in a moment), but missile and drone strikes continue by both sides and Ukraine continues to strike at Russian oil facilities in the Baltic (mainly north of St Petersburg). In Primorsk (about 50 miles north-north-west of St. Petersburg), some 40% of the storage capacity has been damaged. Ukrainian drone strikes strikes have also hit the oil facilities in Ust Luga (near Primorsk).

The Ukrainian MinDef reports that Ukrainian forces shot down 89.9% of all Russian missiles and drones during March. Not to be a naysayer, but air defense guys often make this sort of remark. The issue is that 10% got through (10.1%). As demonstrated at Prince Sultan Air Base, 1 drone getting through can be a problem…

And, while there was another large strike into Ukraine last night and the UAF shot down 515 of 541 strike drones, and 26 of 27 cruise missiles, they intercepted no Iskander ballistic missiles. Nor did they shoot down any of the glide bombs dropped on 19 different towns.

And, as shown in the picture below, Russian operations continue to grind these towns in rubble. The picture below is one of 3 images just released of towns north of Sumy that have been “occupied” by the Russian army Ince last year. This picture (of Andriivka, north of Sumy city) was taken last summer; needless to say, the town has not gotten better since then.

 

Concerning the Russian drone strikes, what is of note is the increased number of strike drones launched during the day. Unless a specific weapon system is using an optical seeker head, this is little technical value. The value - as also witnessed in Iranian drone strieks into neighboring countries during the day, is the psychological value of the drones being seen by the population - and various news agencies.

The one item of interest on the ground is a Russian infiltration into Kostiantinivka from the south - slightly west of due south. This is of note as the real “strong-point” in the Ukrainian defenses in Kostiantinivka is the south-west side of the city (west of the Kryvyi Torets River), which is higher ground but can be approached from high ground south-west of the city. While not dispositive, this also lends credence to suggestions that the Russians are increasing their ops tempo; whether that constitutes a “spring offensive” or not still remains to be seen.

At the same time, Russian forces continue to grind north and north-west from Pokrovsk, which again supports assessments of a spring offensive. 

Elsewhere, there were other marginal gains by both sides, but they were, indeed marginal.

Thoughts

There continues to be commentary in western press that the Russian offensive has begun, and it does appear that the Russian ops tempo is slowly increasing. But the use of the word “offensive” conjures up lighting strikes and rapid envelopments of enemy forces, Guderian in France or Schwarzkopf’s “left hook” in Iraq. None of that is going to happen.

But, what might happen is this: in several key areas there will be a steady increase in activity, more personnel conducting more probes, and more drone strikes and glide bomb strikes as the Russians “increase the rate of grind. I would expect that in the Slovyansk and Kostiantinivka areas. If the opportunity presents itself, the Russians will extend a bit further west and try to envelope these cities, but in a very slow, deliberate manner.

Further west, the Russians will continue to press north and north-west from Pokrovsk.

In the south, the Russians will try to press south-east and west from Hulyaipole.

Elsewhere along the lines, look for continued Russian probes, increased glide-bomb strikes, and the continue Russian effort to straighten lines and fill in small, would-be salients. And, Russian engineers will continue to expand defensive lines, and build new lines further forward as they gain control of terrain. These are slow tactics, but they are relatively low risk tactics.

So, expect very slow progress; this is about inflicting casualties and breaking down Ukrainian positions...

v/r pete