April 10th, 2026 Orthodox Easter April 12th

Next Summary April 17th

Politics - Putin announces Easter Truce: 1600 April 11th - Midnight April 12th

- Ukraine agrees

- Bodies exchanged

Combat Ops - Marginal gains

- Drone war continues 

Economics - EU buys more LNG from Siberia

Weather

The brief return of cold weather and rain will continue to complicate movement for the next few days and further complicate the ground war.

Kharkiv

37, with rain or snow showers tonight. Rain or snow will continue on Saturday, and then mostly cloudy, more rain on Tuesday. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

46 and gusting over 20, light rain. Mostly cloudy through the weekend and into next week. Rain showers Monday. Daily lows mid 30s, daily highs in the mid 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

38 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy through the weekend, rain showers possible Sunday, mostly cloudy next week. Through the weekend daily lows will be near freezing, daily highs in the low to mid 40s, then some warming next week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Putin announced an Easter Truce starting at 1600 Moscow time on the 11th, and ending at midnight on the 12th. (This works out to 0900EDT on the 11th to 1700 on the 12th).

Решением Верховного Главнокомандующего Вооружёнными Силами Российской Федерации В.В. Путина в связи с приближающимся православным праздником Пасхи (Светлого Христова Воскресения) объявляется перемирие с 16.00 11 апреля до исхода

дня 12 апреля 2026 года. Министру обороны Российской Федерации А.Р.Белоусову, начальнику Генерального штаба Вооружённых Сил Российской Федерации - командующему Объединённой группировкой войск (сил) генералу армии В.В. Герасимову отданы указания на этот период остановить боевые действия на всех направлениях. Войскам быть готовыми пресечь возможные провокации со стороны противника, а также любые его

агрессивные действия.

Исходим из того, что украинская сторона последует примеру Российской Федерации.

By decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, V.V. Putin, and in connection with the approaching Orthodox holiday of Easter (the Bright Resurrection of Christ), a truce is hereby declared effective from 16:00 on April 11 until the end of the day on April 12, 2026. Instructions have been issued to the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, A.R. Belousov, and to the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation—Commander of the Joint Grouping of Troops (Forces)—Army General V.V. Gerasimov, to halt combat operations in all sectors for this period. Troops are to remain prepared to thwart any potential provocations by the adversary, as well as any aggressive actions on their part.

We proceed from the expectation that the Ukrainian side will follow the example of the Russian Federation.

Ukrainian ForMin Sybiha responded:

 "President Zelenskyy's Easter ceasefire proposal has a chance to be put into action. Ukrainians deserve a festive day free of terror. We will see where and when the silence starts working and we are ready to reciprocate on our side.”

Sybiha added "there is no need to resume strikes at all.”

"We believe that a ceasefire is the right strategy to advance diplomatic efforts – whether we are talking about the Middle East or Russian aggression against Ukraine."

Russia and Ukraine exchanged the bodies of dead soldiers again, the first exchange since late February. In the exchange Russia transferred 1,000 dead Ukrainians, Ukrainian transferred 41 dead Russians. This brings the total exchanged since January of last year to 19,273 Ukrainian bodies turned over by Russian forces, and 305 Russian bodies turned over by Ukrainian forces.

UK Defense Secretary Healey commented yesterday that a Russian Akula SSN and two small recon subs were operating near the UK’s EEZ for the past month. The two smaller subs are operated by GUGI (Главное управление глубоководных исследований, Glavnoye upravlenie glubokovodnikh issledovanii - Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research) and that the two smaller subs “spent time over” UK undersea cables and pipelines.

Healy suggested that the Akula SSN was being used to confuse and misdirect. There was no damage to the cables or pipelines in the area and the subs have since departed. The UK government did monitor the activity and warned the Kremlin that damage to the pipelines or cables would not be tolerated...

Russia has 4 variants of Akulas, which one was involved hasn’t been reported.

The two smaller subs were possibly Paltus class, a 100 foot long, 550 tons surfaced, 1,000 tons submerged, nuclear powered “research” submarine capable of operating to about 4,000 feet, but these submarines normally operate from motherships, converted Delta IV SSBNs.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no changes in the front lines.

Imagery on April 6th showed a Russian recon team has pushed back into the center of Vilcha, south of Vovchansk, and fighting continued in that area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

Fighting continues around and in Kupyansk, and Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to probe, but there were no substantive changes to the lines.

Of note, there are reports from Ukrainian forces that additional Russian forces are being moved into the area north and east of Lyman. This has not been confirmed in imagery but if true would suggest some sort of push on that city in the near term.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues east and north-east of Kostiantinivka, as well as to the south and south-west, but there were no confirmed changes to both front lines.

Fighting also continues north, north-west and west of Pokrovsk but there were no confirmed changes in the lines in these areas.

West of Pokrovsk about 10 miles, just west of Udachne, imagery showed Ukrainian troops had pushed into the town of Molodetske, a little village of perhaps 40 houses along the T0406 roadway.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues around Hulyaipole but there were no changes in the lines in this area.

Air and Maritime Operations

Gen Syrskyi reported yesterday that Ukrainian forces are flying, on average, 11,000 FPV strike drone sorties per day, and striking 5,000 targets per day, up from roughly 3,300 targets per day in February.

How much damage they are doing isn't clear, but what is clear is that this drone usage is holding the Russian forces in place and in some places have pushed them back (See my thoughts).

During the night of April 9th-April 10th Russian forces launched at least 128 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 113 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Kherson and Odessa oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities; two power facilities in Odessa were struck and 11,000 houses are without power as of midday (Odessa time).

Civilian casualties have not been reported.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

During the night of April 8th-April 9th Russian forces launched at least 119 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 99 drones.

Damage was reported in Kherson and Odessa oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 5 wounded.

Russian tacair struck 16 towns.

Ukrainian drones struck the oil depots in Feodosia (south-east coast of Crimea) and Hvardiiske (25 miles south-west of Melitopol) and imagery confirmed fires at both sites and damage to storage tanks.

At the same time, despite the column of smoke, the oil terminal in Novorossiysk, attacked on April 5th, resumed pumping oil on the 9th, and a ship will depart today with 80,000 tons of oil onboard.

During the night of April 7th-April 8th Russian forces launched at least 176 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 146 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa and Sumy oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least killed and 1 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

Russian forces appear to have developed and begun use of a jet powered version of the Shahed strike drone, labeled the Geran 5, with a range over 360nm, a speed over 210 kts, and a 125lb warhead. There are estimates that place the range at more than 600nm and the warhead weight at 200lbs. 

Note, virtually all Russian “Shahed” drones are now versions of the Geran drone (Geran 1 through Geran 5), a Russian produced copy of the Shahed.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr10

Brent      94.71   62.94 61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 95.96

WTI     92.10   59.26 57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 97.95

NG       3.97      4.96 3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.67

Wheat      8.52  5.38 5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 5.71

Ruble     85          76.52 80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 77.15

Hryvnia 28.6 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.45

Urals 91.66 54.92 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 121.78

ESPO 94.52 61.95 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 103.92

Sokol 99.31 60.62 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 101.19

During the first quarter of the calendar year the EU imported 5 million tons of natural gas from the Yamal LNG project, in north central Siberia, a 17% increase from the same period in 2025. This works out to €2.88 billion ($3.3 billion), 69 of the 71 ships that loaded at the facility so far this year.

Thoughts

Pray for a miracle that both sides decide to extend the truce.

The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces took 35,351 casualties in March, and that 96% were from drones. It’s noted in discussions with drone operators that these drone attacks are overwhelmingly in the kill zone, extending several miles on both sides of the front lines.

That would work out to 33,900 casualties caused by drones during March.

But about those numbers: using the numbers both sides use: wounded are about 3.5 times the number of killed, and 30% of wounded do not return to duty, that would give 7800 KIA and 27,551 WIA. Of that (WIA), 8265 will not return to duty.

Concerning drones, this means 330,000 drone sorties hit 150,000 targets and caused 33,900 casualties, or 1 casualty for every 9.7 sorties (roughly 2 for every 19) and 1 KIA for every 42 drone sorties.

Concerning casualties, the UGS reports that Ukraine has suffered 55,000 KIAs since the start of the war. Assuming that right now Russia has no more Ukrainian bodies, 19,273 represents 35% of total Ukrainian acknowledged KIAs (roughly 1 in 3).

On the other hand, the UGS claims that Russia has suffered something on the order of 300,000 KIAs (or more). Using the more credible number of 235,000, the 305 bodies turned over represents 0.13% of total Russian KIAs (1 in every 770 KIA).

For most of the past 18 months the disparity in bodies exchanged (63 to 1) has been explained as a result of Russian forces advancing and being able to recover Ukrainian bodies left on the battlefield. Since Ukrainian forces were withdrawing, they would not be moving over fallen Russians. However, since the beginning of February Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back in several areas and recovered several hundred square kilometers of terrain, and inflicted something on the order of 50,000+ casualties.

Restating this: if we adjust these numbers just a little: assume Ukraine is not picking up 1 in 770 dead Russians, but rather 1 in 200. That would mean total Russian KIAs is 61,000. 

And if Russia is picking up just 20% of Ukrainian dead, Ukrainian KIAs would total 85,000… 

The body exchange numbers are hiding something and the possibilities are, at least in part, very disturbing. Are Ukrainians simply unconcerned with picking up bodies of Russian soldiers? Understandable, but… Are Russians that diligent about policing the battlefield? Not exactly the image portrayed in the press. Are the numbers that “extreme?” 

Something to chew on… 

v/r pete