April 20th, 2026

Politics - Conscription of woman considered

- EU Symbolic membership considered

- Radev wins in Bulgaria

Combat Ops - Russian Offensive?

- Two Russian ships struck

Weather

Kharkiv

48 and partly cloudy. Rain tonight and tomorrow. Partly to mostly cloudy through Thursday, rain possible Thursday late. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

55 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through the week, rain showers Tuesday. Daily lows mid 40s, daily highs in the mid 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

51 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy this week, rain Thursday afternoon and evening. Daily lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s, daily highs in the low to mid 50s. Winds north-west or west, 10-15kts.

Politics

An Hungarian newspaper is reporting that the Ukrainian government is considering the mandatory conscription of women in order to keep the army’s number’s up. Per the report, the army is trying to maintain a force of 800,000 soldiers but there are not enough men left in the country to meet demand.

Ukraine has roughly 5 million men of conscription age (25-60) but increasing numbers are now exempt or unfit. And roughly 2 million have already served. (Please see my thoughts below.)

France and Germany are reportedly considering an effort to grant Ukraine symbolic member ship in the EU, but would withhold access to the common budget or voting rights.

Germany has proposed “Associate membership,” gaining "symbolic strength through the name.”

France has proposed “partial membership,” in which Ukraine would have access to the EU agricultural policies but funding would be delayed until full membership.

President Zelenskyy had earlier noted that Ukraine was not interested in partial membership.

Bulgaria’s Progressive Party won 44.59% of the vote in elections on the 19th, the GERB-SDS bloc 2nd (13.3%), We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria 3rd (12.6%), DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms) 4th (7.1%) and Revival 5th (4.2%).

The Progressive Bulgaria, led by Rumen Radev, looks to win 130 seats in the 240 seat parliament. The Progressive Party, and Radev, are viewed as pro-Russian, as is the Revival party.

Ground Operations

There has been no substantive change in the lines, or, as one analyst put it, "no evidence… of tactically significant gains.”

Along the entire front lines Russian assaults - in teams of 2 to 5 men - continue to probe forward, infiltrating into Ukrainian terrain, holding onto small positions, withdrawing when they need to. Small patches of terrain are “traded” back and forth, but there has not been a notable change in the line of contact since the last few days of March.

That said, there are several areas of note:

In the Siversk - Slovyansk area, there are reports of hard fighting in the area about 2 miles east of Rai Oleksandrivka, about 12-13 miles south-east of Slovyansk. Fighting was also reported at several spots near Nykyforivka, the small town several miles south-east of Rai Oleksandrivka. It would seem that the Russians are trying to advance up these open fields and pressure Slovyansk from the south-east, while also maintaining pressure in the northeast around Lyman.

Further to the south-west, the Russian probe and infiltration efforts continue into and around Kostiantinivka and it appears that the Russian effort is gradually expanding the “no mans land” westward. At the same time, there are reports of an increased Russian use of drones and Ukrainian forces around Lyman are reporting difficulty in maintaining defenses, such as anti-drone nets, as the pace of Russian attacks has increased.

Russian forces also continued aggressive probes south-west and west and north-west of Hulyaipole. Again, there are no changes in the line, just more probes, and more patchworks of interspersed Russian and Ukrainian positions, but the lines stay essentially in the same position.

Further west, there are reports of fighting on the islands in the Dnepr River near Kherson, and Ukrainian Southern Command reports Russian forces are attempting to push Ukrainian forces off Oleksiivskyi Island and bring more of Kherson city into artillery range.

As for the Russian Spring Offensive, I still see no clear sign. Some have noted a number of Russian “mechanized assaults” but these assaults are all platoon sized or smaller. One was noted as involving 4 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), 1 tank, and 10 motorcycles, another consisted of 4 or 5 IFVs.

In most cases, these mechanized assaults are simply the use of the IFVs to provide protection as the troops move forward. Once they reach a point near the front line, they dismount and push forward on foot in smaller groups. The motorcycles also drop off 1 guy at a time. The tank provides cover fire.

Nothing in all this suggests to me that the Russians have begun some new offensive.

Further, there is nothing to suggest a change in tactics; the Russians continue to grind, and continue to try to cause casualties. If the report on the possible conscription of woman is correct, the Russian approach would seem to be working. (See my thoughts below).

Air and Maritime Operations

President Zelensky posted that Russian totals for the period April 12-19 included 2,360 strike drones, 1,320 glide bombs [“smart" bombs], and 60 missiles.

Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) reported that they had struck two Russian Navy ships with aerial drones, type of drones not specified. Per the GUR report, the Tapir class (NATO: Alligator class LST) NIKOLAI FILCHENKOV, and Ropucha class LST YAMAL were both struck in port Sevastopol. Video released by the GUR showed video from each UAV as they struck the two ships and a radar antenna. There are no independent reports yet on the extent of damage.

The Russian Navy continues to perform in the proud tradition of the Adm. Rozhestvenski.

During the night of April 19th-April 20th Russian forces launched at least 142 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 113 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.

During the night of April 18th-April 19th Russian forces launched at least 236 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 203 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv and Poltava oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

There were no reports of civilian casualties.

RuAF tacair struck 20 towns.

During the night of April 17th-April 18th Russian forces launched at least 219 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 190 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities, and 380,000 homes lost power in Chernihiv.

There were no reports of civilian casualties.

During the night of April 16th-April 17th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 172 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 147 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.

Russian forces have mounted cameras on some Geran (Russian produced Shahed drones) and have begun to strike Ukrainian mobile targets.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr17 Apr20

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 88.48 94.86

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 82.71 88.30

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.67 2.72

Wheat      8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.05 6.03

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 75.94 75.26

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.89 44.20

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 114.65 102.67

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 100.81 96.51

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 102.53 99.75

Thoughts

That the Ukrainian government is considering conscription of woman would suggest a simple (but painful) numbers problem, that the current rate of inducting men into the army - 27,000 per month - which has been the rate for more than 2 years, is no longer keeping up.

More distressing, there is reporting that suggests that the Ukrainian army is at risk of falling below the minimum end-strength of 800,000. That would suggest a tremendous casualty rate.

As you may recall, just before the start of the war the Ukrainian army had 200,000 active duty and 200,000 reserves, who were activated as the war began. They began a very rapid expansion and by the end of 2022 there were an estimated 1 million in the army. Army manpower appears to have peaked some time in late summer 2023 with nearly 1.3 million (including the air force and navy), with about 1.2 million actually in the army. 

Several key points need to be remembered: first, with the exception of a few special cases, no one has left the army once they are on active duty, unless they are several wounded and are unfit for any active duty. The second point is that, per the Ukrainian army, 70% of wounded return to active duty. 

Assuming 1.2 million in the army in September 2023, that gives 31 months bringing in new personnel at a rate said to be 27,000 per month, and a total number to have served as 2.03 million. The number currently in the army is, per this article, approaching 800,000.

Beginning with 2 million, assume the number currently on active duty is 900,000 and we know that some 300,000 are missing or deserted or POWs. That would mean 800,000 (2,000,000 - (900,000 +300,000) killed or seriously wounded, and that most personnel on active duty has been wounded at least once - which would really mean that everyone in a forward, combat unit has been wounded.

I presume these numbers are high. But even if they are off by quite a bit, the fact that there is worry that they cannot sustain the 800,000 man force suggests a tremendous casualty count, certainly several hundred thousand killed and an equal number seriously wounded.

And, if there is doubt that there is a manpower shortage consider this: last August the Ukrainian government changed the rules and let men aged 18 - 22 leave the country. In September, EU countries granted 79,205 new temporary protection orders for Ukrainians, a 49% increase from August, an increase of more than 25,000.

v/r pete