June 10th, 2026

Politics - Russian LTGEN assassinated in Moscow

Combat Ops - Drone war continues 

- Few changes on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

72 with rain showers. Partly cloudy Thursday and Friday, thunderstorms on Saturday. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds westerly, 5kts.

Melitopol

77 and mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms through the weekend, partly cloudy. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

75 and partly cloudy. Thursday partly cloudy, then scattered thunderstorms daily through the weekend and into next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs around 80, cooler next week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

A car bomb detonated in Moscow (the Balashikha suburb) and reportedly killed a Russian LtGen. There is a claim that the man killed was Damir Davydov, the Director of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) of Russia’s Defense Ministry.

Of note, in April 2025 LtGen Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff (the equivalent of the US Joint Staff J-3) was killed when a bomb destroyed his car in neighborhood.

Ground Operations

Fighting continues in the Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, but there were no confirmed changes to the line. Drone strikes continue, and there are multiple claims of Russian gains as well as Ukrainian strike successes, but none of it confirmed. Recon probes and infiltration ops continue here as along virtually the entire front, all the way to the Dnepr River.

In fighting east of the Oskil River imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces had retaken the town of Karpivka earlier in this month. Karpivka, located along side of the Nitrius River and a reservoir, about 11 miles south-south-east of Borova, was a farming village with a population of about 400 prior to the war.

Just south-west of Chasiv Yar Ukrainian forces continue to control the woods that lie just outside the town, and continue to conduct small raids into Russian positions in the town.

Russian forces continue to probe and infiltrate deeper into and around Kostiantinivka, and now appear to have conducted probes into virtually all of western Kostiantinivka (the area south-west of the H-20 roadway). Although they hold very little of that side of the city, the Russians continue to  expand the “checkerboard”across the south and south-west sides of the city, even as Ukrainian forces continue to hold most of the city.

Fighting continues further west, in the general area northwest of Pokrovsk, but there were no changes in the front lines.

Fighting also continues across southern Ukraine but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. 

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of June 9th-June 10th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 207 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 181 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Odessa oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least  civilian killed and 10 wounded in strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian sources are reporting that Russian forces have ordered logistics vehicles to remain off the M14 roadway across the southern Ukraine due to the threat of Ukrainian drones; this has not been independently confirmed.

Similarly, Ukrainian forces struck the Chonhar Bridge (the eastern bridge - from Crimea north to the mainland) last night, the second strike in 3 days. 

Overall, Russian forces claimed that they shot down 326 Ukrainian drones last night, and more than 1,100 in the last three days, but gave no count on how many got through.

29 drones were launched against the Kuybaishev refinery outside Samara (about 450 m miles south-east of Moscow), and at least 4 got through and left 4 storage tanks on fire.

During the night of June 8th-June 9th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 166 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 146 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 10 civilian killed and 39 wounded in strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun9 Jun10

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 92.52 92.85

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 89.23 89.93

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.18 3.21

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 5.90 5.91

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 71.76 71.83

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.99 45.04

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 87.75 83.05

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 95.51 91.23

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 86.44 84.89

Anonymous reports from China suggests that the actual price paid for ESPO oil by Chinese refineries, for June delivery, is $3 - $4 below Brent.

Of note, China’s economy has slowed and oil demand is down, which has also weakened the ESPO price.

Thoughts

Both sides continue to use large numbers of FPV drones daily to strike at the other side’s Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs). The Kill Zone (the area of very high threat of being struck by an FPV drone), now extends as far as 9 miles in each direction from the nominal “front line,” with constant FPV coverage by both sides. Particular targets for both sides are any personnel associated with drones: drones hunting those controlling drones. Open reporting suggests Ukrainian forces have the advantage currently but there is very little reporting on Ukrainian casualties near the front lines and only rare anecdotal comments about logistics or rotation of personnel or units, so this needs to be taken with a grain of salt. 

Both sides are producing and using thousands of drones per day, with Ukrainian production numbers said to be approaching 19,000 per day and usage more than 11,000 per day. Success rates aren’t - obviously - released, but even the most generous casualty numbers support an estimate of, at best, about 1 in 10 getting a hit.

Russian forces are not producing as many drones, numbers seem to be around half as many, but Russian forces lead in fiber optic drones, which have a higher success rate.

Some reporting - again with no confirmation - suggests that reports of POWs being killed centers on soldiers killing drone operators when captured; drone operators may have become the new equivalent of snipers.

v/r pete