June 11th, 2026

Politics - Germany suggests talks for Ukrainian EU Membership 

- New EU rules to follow

Combat Ops - Mostly unchanged

- Kostiantinivka evolving

- Air campaigns continue

Weather

Kharkiv

83 and mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60s, high tomorrow mid 80s, then cooler, mid to low 70s next week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

67 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow, scattered thunderstorms through the weekend. Daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

80 and sunny, gusting over 20. Scattered thunderstorms daily through the weekend and into next week. Low tomorrow near 60, then falling, lows in the low 50s next week; high tomorrow low 80s, but low 60s next week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

German ForMin Wadephul commented yesterday that he is hopeful that talks can begin soon concerning Ukraine’s entrance into the EU, during a press conference with Hungarian ForMin Orban (no relation to former Hungarian PM Orban).

Ukraine’s ForMin Svyrydenko called this “fantastic news… We are one step closer to the EU membership: steadily moving towards our goal.” 

In May Germany’s Chancellor Merz suggested Ukraine be given an “associate membership” and then commented:

“My proposal reflects Ukraine’s particular situation, a country at war. It will help facilitate the ongoing peace talks as part of a negotiated peace solution… essential not only for Ukraine’s but for the entire continent’s security.”

“The European Union has to show that it is capable of enlarging and willing to enlarge, and we want to discuss that here. There are, of course, a whole range of questions that we must answer, that we must answer together, but above all else, it must be clear that this part of Europe belongs within the European Union’s future.”

At the same time, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands want the accession treaties for future EU members be modified, giving the EU more power to impose penalties, to include suspending funds and voting rights, for nations that “violate fundamental rights and democratic principles,” a reference to Hungary’s PM Orban’s challenge to the EU’s through his use of the veto.

In a joint statement they noted:

"Building on the lessons learned from past enlargement rounds, we need a fresh perspective on accession treaties. A copy-paste of previous accession treaties will not suffice. All options should be on the table."

Ground Operations

Russian assaults and probes continue in the Kupyansk area but there were no changes to the front lines.

Russian probes and infiltrations continue east and north-east of Slvoyansk but there were no changes in the lines.

Reporting around Kostiantinivka is mixed and somewhat contradictory. Ukrainian army mouthpiece Col. Kostyantyn Mashovets, a widely quoted analyst, reprots that Russian forces have advanced in two columns into the center of Kostiantinivka, that the two columns are now just two kilometer (1.3 miles) apart. Per Mashovets, over the last several days Russian forces advanced from Stupochky (about 3 miles north-east of Kostiantinivka), due west to the area of Novodmytrivka (which sits about a mile north of the center of the city), took at least partial control of that town, and then pushed south into the city center. At the same time another Russian element pushed up the T0504 roadway to the city railroad station, and are now less than 2 kilometers apart across the city center. Fighting continues for actual control of the railroad station.

Mashovets gives no indication of the size of these Russian elements.

At the same time, other Ukrainian reporting suggests that the drone “kill zone” around Kostiantinivka is as much as 25 kilometers of either side of the nominal front line and that Russian forces are using no heavy vehicles in the kill zone, and that Ukrainian forces continue to “clear infiltrators” in Kostiantinivka and towns to the south and west.

Fighting continued to the west, north-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Fighting continues across southern Ukraine but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines; nor have there been any significant tactical changes since the last week of May (west of Orikhiv). Fighting was again reported on and around  Bilohrudyi Island, south-west of Kherson city, but there were no changes in terrain held.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of June 9th-June 10th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 Iskander ballistic missile and 221 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 195 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  At least 1 Iskander ballistic missile struck Odessa.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power is currently out in Sumy city and in some nearby towns; water was also out in parts of Sumy city.

There were at least 1 civilian killed and 23 wounded in strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns.

Commercial satellite imagery confirmed two oil tanks on fire at the oil terminal just east of Novorossiysk, from a Ukrainian missile strike on June 8th, and two tanks also on fire Saratov Oblast, also from another strike on June 8th.

During the night of June 9th-June 10th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 207 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 181 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Odessa oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa and Zaporizhia oblasts

There were at least 10 civilians wounded in strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun10 Jun11

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 92.85 92.93

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 89.93 90.07

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.21 3.12

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 5.91 5.86

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 71.83 72.00

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 45.04 44.93

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 83.05 83.05

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 91.23 91.23

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 84.89 86.52

Thoughts

Concerning Kostiantinivka, a well regarded Ukrainian army mouthpiece, Col. Kostantyn Mashovets is reporting Russian infiltration gains in the northern-central parts of the city and that there is an assault underway now in the center of the city as two separate Russian formations (of unknown size) push into the city center.

My own read on this is that this is a bit overblown. Unless something has changed dramatically in the last few days, and there is no indication of that, the Russian elements are still small units that can probe and if desired hold small positions (several buildings at the most), but neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians are moving large units (battalions or larger) as a unit in an assault. 

Obviously, the situation in the city is known by Ukrainian higher HQ, so there is a cautionary note: reports of “cities at risk” have been issued in the past as a means of alerting the population so that the loss of a city isn’t shock to the system. Usually, these are preceded (by a few days) with reports of tremendous numbers of Russian casualties and reports of some sort of Ukrainian tactical success. 

There have been several recent reports about Russian casualties continuing to climb (I don't think there has been any real change in the casualty rates on either side), and there was the report from Gen Hodges over the weekend of the Ukrainian breakthrough last Friday in the south, the “collapse” of a 140km section of the front, and the isolation of 80,000 Russian troops. That does not seem to have happened, but a great many people believed it. There was also the report that Russian forces are withdrawing from Kinburn Spit. That also doesn’t seem to have happened (not that there are many troops on the 6 mile long, 500 foot wide, nearly awash at high tide, piece of sand).

What is of note is that they felt the need to issue this report, which suggests the Russians have gained some tactical advantage in Kostiantinivka. 

If that is so, and it still remains to be seen, there are two possible areas of concern: 

The first is the old problem: does the Ukrainian army have enough troops or is the manpower crunch now being felt in their most important section of the front line? 

The second is a question of the drone wars: If Russian forces have been able to assemble in size (battalion or more) and maneuver in larger numbers in a section of the fight as closely monitored as Kostiantinivka, then the question is, how have they neutralized the drones that have, for the last 2 years, effectively prevented even company and platoon sized (120 or 40 men, respectively) units from maneuvering?

There is no information that supports or disproves either of these points, but they are surely the key concerns. If either is correct, Ukraine has problems.

But it’s worth noting that, even if correct, the Russian army is not set up to move fast. This will unfold in weeks and even months, not days.

I would add one more cautionary note, if I’m wrong and the Russians have managed push a large unit - a battalion or larger - into the city and the Ukrainians have not been able to interdict with drones or block with their own troops, then there would have to have been some sort of grave failure: for example, a Russian electronic warfare development that allows for something approaching 100% suppression of drones, and at the same time, some sort of manpower shortage in the Kostinaitnivka area.

I don’t think either of those things happened, but there must be some reason the Ukrainians are saying what they are saying… 

v/r pete