June 3rd, 2026

Politics - Greece files diplomatic protest over USV

  - US, Ukraine deal on Patriot missiles

Combat Ops - Few changes

        - Air strikes continue by both sides

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and cloudy. Cloudy or mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers Thursday and possibly Friday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs near 80. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

70 and mostly cloudy, winds gusting to 20. Partly or mostly cloudy through the weekend, isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

69 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain showers tonight, partly to mostly cloud next five days, scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Greece’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has filed a diplomatic note with Ukraine, objecting to the presence of armed but unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in Greek territorial water. 

On May 7th Greek fisherman recovered an USV near the island of Lefkada in the Ionian Sea. The drone was found with engines still running and 70KGS (155lbs) of explosives on board. After an investigation Greece claimed it was involved in several attacks int he Mediterranean Sea over the past several months. The Ukrainian government denies any involvement.

The drone was identified by the Greek government as a "Kozak Mamai,” an Ukrainian USV that can carry up to 850KGs (1875lbs) of explosive. The USV is a 6 meter (19.5 feet) hull covered in kevlar, and SatCom link, and is capable of reaching 65 kts in calm seas. The Greek government believes that drone was transported to the Mediterranean by an unmarked vessel that pulled into the Ukrainian base (Mellitah) in Libya, but does not believe the USV was launched from Libya.

Ukraine reportedly has 200 personnel in Libya, operating out of 3 facilities: Misrata (the Libyan Air Force Academy, also a site where US AfriCom has a presence, as well as British Intelligence, about 100 miles east of Tripoli, along the coast), Zawiya (near the Mellitah oil field, abut 30 miles west of Tripoli - used to launch both USVs and UAVs), and a third site on the road to the airport in Tripoli, at the 111th Brigade’s HQ; the 111th is the Libyan Army unit responsible for security in Tripoli.

The Greek MOFA noted that:

“…the unmanned surface vessel discovered in Greek territorial waters posed a serious threat to maritime navigation and could have caused the death of innocent citizens. Furthermore, it could have caused incalculable damage to the environment.”

"The transfer of military operations to the Mediterranean Sea, a great distance from the actual front lines of the war, jeopardizes our national security, and our national economy is suffering a decisive blow.”

The MOFA note insists that Ukraine’s right of self-defense “cannot justify such actions,” and is calling on Ukraine to abstain from these actions in the future and stop the transfer of military operations in the Mediterranean Sea.

President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine the US and NATO have an agreement to supply more Patriot missiles to Ukraine as well as to provide for the manufacturing of those missiles, and includes provisions for other countries, which are waiting for delivery of Patriot missiles, to give their “place in line” to Ukraine.

"The queue for Patriot systems is measured in years. We could receive this new package [of ordered systems] around 2030 at the earliest, which did not suit me... So there was an agreement with certain countries that could give us their place in the queue so that we could receive the Patriot system. But you can only take that place in the queue if you have paid for the contract. And we have to pay.”

"We must do whatever it takes to pay for this contract. Otherwise, all the systems and missiles will arrive in 2030.”

"I know it is difficult but the Foreign Ministry, the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine and the Defence Ministry are obliged to do this… We must find this money. It doesn't matter where. Just find it. Because securing both the Patriot systems and a place in the delivery queue is even more difficult."

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Russian recon probes and infiltration efforts continue, but there were no changes to the lines.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Fighting continues but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

It is in this area - specifically north-east of Slovyansk, where the two sides appear to have “traded” land - Russian forces apparently gains some terrain north-east and south-east of Lyman, Ukrainian forces gain terrain due east of Lyman, and Russian forces appearing to pick up land due east of Kramatorsk, as well as in the south-east end of Kostiantinivka and along the western edge of Kostiantinivka. Of these various gains and losses, the issue of taking terrain immediately west of Kostiantinivka is of note, as the city can be approached on level terrain from the west. The West side of the city is, however almost 100 feet higher than the center and east side, and sits on a small bluff, making it a substantively more difficult assault.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

As elsewhere, Russian recon probes and infiltration efforts continue, but there were no changes to the line.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of June 2nd-June 3rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 198 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 189 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Rivne, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure;  food storage warehouse in Dnipropetrovsk is on fire.

There were at least 6 civilians reported to have been wounded in strikes.

Ukrainian drones hit Russian infrastructure targets in Murmansk and St Petersburg areas. Ukrainian reports also claim hits on the Steregushchy class corvette BOIKIY (343 feet, 2100 tons) at the Kronshtadt naval base, St Petersburg. Russian reports claim 59 drones shot down in the St Petersburg area, and 354 drones shot down overall. Ukrainian drones also struck a city bus in Yanakijeve (in occupied Donetsk, south-east of Horlivka), killing 8 and injuring 11 civilians.

As warned on the 31st, during the night of June 1st-June 2nd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 33 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 8 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 27 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 5 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 656 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 11 Iskander ballistic missiles, 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 Kalibr cruise missiles and 602 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Khmelnitsky, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outages were reported in several sections of greater Kyiv.

There were at least 23 civilians killed and 132 civilians wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun2 Jun3

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 94.60 97.22

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 91.87 95.00

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.13 3.15

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.02 5.94

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 72.71 73.77

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.31 44.34

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.70 86.94

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 96.44 96.44

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 87.99 91.76

Thoughts

Overall, both Ukrainian and Russian forces remain active, but there are few changes. No mans land continue to slowly grow and expand westward but Russian forces still find it very difficult to operate under the Ukrainian drone “umbrella” that has evolved over the past year or so. But, Ukrainian forces find it equally difficult to operate.

Ukrainian forces report that the spring vegetation continues to thicken and this is complicating detection of Russian recon probes as they push forward. Russian troops have become adept at use of foliage (much more than 2 or 3 years ago, and IR cloaks have proliferated and deny easy IR detection of individual troops. Still, there is no reason to believe there will be any rapid changes along the front.

What is of concern is that the Russians, unlike last year, are keeping the power grid on their target list and more frequently returning to already struck targets. Actual damage reports on the Ukrainian power grid aren’t released, but comments from various individuals over the past month or so suggest that the grid is in worse shape now than it was in late fall 2025. A sustained “revisit rate” by the Russian strike complex would seem to set the stage for a very hard Ukrainian winter in 7 months.

v/r pete