June 25th, 2026

Politics - SecState Rubio confirms: No Agreement in Alaska

- Ukraine receives first Tranche

- Kinburn Spit - Russian forces withdraw

Combat Ops - No change on ground

- Drone strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

76 and mostly sunny, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and mostly sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

71 and partly cloudy,  gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

As noted yesterday, reaffirmed by SecStat Rubio, there was no agreement between President Trump and President Putin last August in Anchorage, Alaska.

"It's been debilitating for Europe but especially for Ukraine and for Russia increasingly. We are prepared to step forward and play a constructive role if there's one for us to play, and bringing the parties together and bringing that war to an end. That's what the president's tried to do now for a year and a half. But there was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal made in Alaska, but it was never an agreement.”

At the Ukraine Recovery Conference dinner, last night in Gdansk, Under Secretary of State for Foreign Assistance Lewin added:

“We’ve seen that Putin still isn’t willing to sit down at the negotiating table. You mentioned some of Zelenskyy’s recent proposals, which we welcome, but Putin has rejected them. And so President Trump has put himself in a difficult position because he is committed to achieving true peace for the people of Ukraine, for the region, and for Europe as a whole.”

Ukraine 3.2 billion euros ($3.65 billion) from the EU yesterday, the first tranche of 90 billion euros (($103 billion) over the next 2 years. This frost. Tranche is to finance the state budget.

Ukrainian forces landed on Kinburn Spit (the long, low, very narrow sand spit that forms the southern mouth of the Dnepr Estuary) and raised the Ukrainian flag.

Russian forces have nominally held the spit since early in the war, but the out er6 miles of the spit is very narrow (less than 3,000 feet at it’s eastern end, but quickly narrowing to less than 300 feet), has no meaningful elevation and is mainly some low sand dunes and sawgrass. Russian forces on the spit mainly consisted of a small observation post and occasional drone launch teams. They have been withdrawn further east. 

The Ukrainian Navy commented that the 

"What we are seeing now is the process of destroying Russian logistics. This is a consistent process that has been going on not for the first year and not even for one month. But as of now, the Kinburn Spit is a combat zone."

The Navy spokesman later added that there are no Ukrainian forces on the Spit, suggesting that the display of the flag was for the sake of the photograph. The Spit would be very difficult to hold if anyone challenged.

The signal repeaters that were located on Belarus’s southern borders and which were being used by Russian forces to support deep strikes into western Ukraine, have been trend off, following a protest and threat from President Zelenskyy.

Ground Operations

In a phrase: more of the same.

Infiltrations by Russian recon elements took place ins several small towns noter of Sumy City as well as in several small border villages south-east of Sumy City. Ukrainian forces have responded and there were reports of troops in contact at multiple points both north and east of Sumy City.

More infiltrations took place north-west of Kharkiv as well as in the area east of Kupyansk; there were no changes to the front lines.

In the general area east of Slovyansk reporting indicates that Russian infiltrations continue into parts ofd Lyman - while Ukrainian forces continue to hold most fo that town, and Russian forces are infiltrating into several towns east of Slovyansk.

Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Kostiantinivka and Ukrainian forces continue to counter-attack. There is no change to the area of control inside the city by either side. However, it is now reported in most web sites that the area south-east of the T-0504 roadway is, if not controlled by Russian forces, not controlled by Ukrainian forces.

There were no changes in the general Pokrovsk area, but there are reports of a step up in the number of Russian glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian positions in this area. The Russian have routinely resorted to glide bomb attacks in the last 2 years to destroy very hard Ukrainian positions.

In southern Ukraine, in the south-east, both sides have marginal gains, even as Russian infiltrations continue across much of the front.

In Chernihiv, the Oblast council ordered the evacuation by July 1st of 12 small villages in the north-east section of the oblast, where it borders Russia. There the some 1,000 - 1,200 people who need to be evacuated. The towns are:

Koryukivska community: Prybin, Shyshkivka, Rudnya. Horodnyanska community: Lemeshivka, Moshchenko. 

Novhorod-Siverska community: Vorobyivka, Kamin', Kamyanska Sloboda, Karabany, Chaykyne. 

Semenivska community: Hazoprovdne, Oleksandrivka

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian forces conducted more drone strikes into Crimea, with attacks centered on Simferopol and Sevastopol, hitting multiple oil and power related facilities in stat area of Crimea, and causing power outages in much of Sevastopol. Oil industry facilities were also hit in Krasnodar oblast (east of Crimea). Drones were also reported over Moscow and flights in and out of Moscow’s several airports were temporarily suspended.

Overall, Ukraine launched “nearly 300,” drones (no accurate total given) and Russian air defense claimed to have shot down 269 drones, with drone strikes reported in 12 oblasts (not specified, but including Moscow and Krasnodar).

President Macron announced that the French Navy intercepted the sanctioned tanker Deliver (Cameroon flag, 150,000 deadweight tons)  Tuesday, about 60 miles south-west of Agrigento Sicily.

During the night of June 24th-June 25th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 x ballistic missiles and 90 x strike drones. 

The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 83 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts. Ballistic missile strike in Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outage in eastern Kyiv.

There was at least 2 civilian killed and 3 wounded in these attacks..

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns, and there are multiple reports of front line positions being struck by FAB 500 and FAB 1000 glide bombs.

Ukraine is reporting that the signal repeaters in Belarus were turned off yesterday.

On June 23rd-24th Ukrainian drones struck targets in Crimea, to include Kerch, and there was a power outage in Sevastopol.

Ukrainian drones were also reported last night and early today over Nizhniy Novgorod (250 miles east of Moscow) with Russian air defense forces claiming to have shot down 23 drones. At least 2 civilians were killed and 2 wounded.  

Reuters is reporting, quoting anonymous sources, that the Moscow oil refinery (which produces about 225,000 barrels per day) struck several days ago (on the 16th and again on the 17th) - the largest producer of gasoline in the Moscow area, will be out of commission for 6 months. 

Russian Deputy PM for Energy Novak has commented that Russia is considering banning exports of diesel fuel, and acknowledged that there are gasoline shortages in certain regions of the country; rationing is already being enforced over much of Russia. 

During the night of June 23rd-24th Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian oil and gas infrastructure and in the last few hours appear to have struck the natural gas processing plant in Orenburg (650 miles south-east of Moscow, near the Kazakstan border); three separate explosions were reported at the facility.

During the night of June 23rd-June 24th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1x ballistic missile and 101 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 95 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There was at least 2 civilian killed and 6 wounded in these attacks..

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun24 Jun25

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 73.51 73.43

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 69.89 70.02

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.19 3.28

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.06 5.96

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 74.90 75.70

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.88 44.90

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 62.35 58.83

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 75.97 72.16

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.14 68.70

Thoughts

One of those odd, hard to place in context, numbers emerged in the paper, with a comment that Russian forces launched 973 drones into 49 villages in Zaporizhzia last night and this morning, killing 2 civilians and wounding 22. Of note, this  is not presented as not part of front line action but rather as Russian strikes at civilians and civilian transportation infrastructure (gasolines and civilian vehicles). This type of activity happens daily along the entire line, in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. And perhaps Chernihiv (see above). What isn’t normally reported is how many drones are used in each area or how the totals vary on a daily basis. 

But, the reports all suggest this is a regular - daily - event and cover every oblast near the front line, but again there is very little reporting on the actual numbers or the damage, just generic statements. As you may recall, reporting noted the other day that 9,000 drones have struck into the city (metro area) of Kharkiv since the beginning of May, a 180 per day rate in that area, and again speaks to a pervasive presence of strike drones on both sides of the line. Other cities (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, etc.) have all reported daily drone strikes like Kharkiv. 

Russia is currently manufacturing about 19,000 per day, and is trying to ramp up production. Ukraine has reportedly already passed 19,000 per day and is heading to 30,000 per day. It is a blinding flash of the obvious but this will make the terrain within perhaps 15 miles of the front line on both side virtually uninhabitable. (Again, consider the Chernihiv note above - maybe the entire border).  Gen Syrskyi has commented that Russia will produce more than 7 million drones this year, which would suggest that Russian production is already approaching the 20,000 per day range and will move beyond that (in order to average out to the necessary 20,000 per day to reach more than 7 million for the year).

Across the front, both sides continue to strike at the other’s logistics. It appears that the Russians are taking the worst of it right now, but reporting on damaged Ukrainian infrastructure is thin, and reporting on damaged Russian infrastructure aggressively pushed. Still, one Ukrainian brigade noted that the kill zone - where troops have to move on foot, is now 5 kilometer deep on either side; that is, movement of supplies and ammo is mainly carried by troops, starting 5 kms to the rear. While this was a Ukrainian officer commenting on Russians, other reporting suggests that both sides are laboring through this.

One final note: overall, more than 80%, and anecdotally more than 90% of all casualties are bay drone or artillery. Other reports suggest that 75% or more of all casualties are FPV drones (all these numbers are “fuzzy”). What that does suggest, given the number of drones flying, is that drone operators on both sides have become the “snipers” of this war. And it has been reported - again nothing even close to confirmed - that drone operators, when captured, do not fare well…

v/r pete