June 19th, 2026

Please reply (just to me) if you have missed any summary in the past week. I have been receiving multiple “Could Not Deliver” messages, but the names vary from day to day. Trying to figure it out… Sorry for the inconvenience.

Politics - Aid to Ukraine

- Russian oil sanctions waiver expires 

Combat Ops - Few changes, Russian activity increasing around Kostiantinivka

- Air operations continue - both sides

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms Tuesday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

73 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy to sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms on Monday. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with 250 million Euros ($285 million) to develop drone capabilities and an additional 250 million euros to purchase US weapons.

Germany will provide $400 million to Ukraine, half of which will be for the purchase of Patriot missiles.

The UK will provide Ukraine with 150,000 drones and 350 surface to air missiles by the end of the year.

Sweden will provide $108 million for weapons purchases.

Belgium will provide Ukraine with 3 operational F-16s and 4 F-16s as hangar queens.

The US - Iranian MOU is in effect and the US has let expire the waiver on sanctions on Russian seaborne oil.

President Zelenskyy called for the EU to accelerate Ukrainian entry into the union, and asked for help to prepare for next winter with more air defense systems and missiles, and pressed for eat need to apply pressure on Russia to end the war.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine deserved membership as it has paid for Europe’s security and freedom.

"Every democratic nation in Europe deserves EU membership, and Ukraine deserves it because it has paid more than any other country for its right to be free, independent and... European. The future of Europe - free, united and, of course, peaceful - is decided in our defense.”

"Of course, we want to end this war by winter - through diplomacy and pressure on russia. But we understand who we are dealing with. Putin is a war.” 

Slovak PM Fico met with President Zelenskyy on the 18th and afterwards concluded that the tow governments have opposing views on key issues, but wants to continue dialogue with Zelenskyy. Fico stressed that he places Slovakia’s interests first but that: 

"One can have different views and still maintain cooperation. And I want to ask to respect Slovak views.” 

Ground Operations

There were essentially no changes in the front lines along most of the front. 

Russian forces had marginal gains north-east of Slovyansk, gaining ground in the town of Zakitne (which has changed hands several times in the last several months). Russian infiltrations also continue into and around Lyman. Due east of Slovyansk there is a good deal of reporting of troops in contact, but the line has only showed marginal changes in the last several weeks.

Of note, Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Kostiantinivka and in particular into that city from the west, which negates the advantage of the bluff that looks down on the center and east side of the city. The number of Russian troops in the city probably remains below several hundred, scattered about in a dozen or more elements. But there are multiple reports of more recon probes and infiltration teams pressing into the west and center of the city.

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces had small gains north Hulyaipole, but the overall situation remains unchanged. 

To give some indication of the scale of each action, Ukrainian forces reported a Russian “motorized assault” just south-east of Orikhiv, pointed at it as it was unusual - a “motorized assault;” the assault consisted of 20 motorcycles and 12 ATVs and resulted in 10 Russian casualties.

Air and Maritime Operations

As reported yesterday, the Ukrainian strike on Moscow on the 17th was part of a perhaps 600 drones launched into Russian airspace that night (the night of the 17th-18th). Regular Russian reporting does not provide an overall number, just the number that were shot down. However, Russian engagement success have averaged between 90 and 95% - when those times the numbers get out (the same success rates as Ukrainian engagements), but they did claim 555 successful engagements, ergo 600 total.

The Russian MinDef later claimed that on the 16th (night of 16-17 June) Russian air defense shot down 992 drones and 4 missiles. This would imply an 1100 drone and missile strike. 

These are substantially larger strike packages than normal for the Ukrainian Air Force and are reflective of President Zelenskyy’s statement that they were in retaliation for recent strikes on Kyiv.

Ukrainian strikes into occupied Kherson oblast left 20,000 residents without power.

During the night of June 17th-June 18th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 90 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 79  drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 4 civilians killed and 25 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

Ukraine’s Deputy PM Kuleba reported that Russian drones struck two merchant ships in the Black Sea, one Panamanian flag, 1 crew member killed, 1 wounded, and a Nevis and St Kitts Flagged vessel, on which 3 crewmen were reportedly injured.

However, there have been no other reports of these incident, the ship names have not been released, nor are there any other reports; normal shipping incident channels are, so far, quiet.

During the night of June 17th-June 18th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 7 x Iskander Ballistic missiles and 239 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 4 ballistic missiles and 212 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Poltava oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; the energy ministry reported power outages Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Poltave, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There were at least  1 civilians killed and 10 wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun18 Jun19

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 78.50 79.81

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 75.33 76.02

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.17 3.22

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.20 6.13

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 73.28 73.33

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.93 44.86

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 64.54 61.19

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 77.55 77.55

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 74.55 75.62

Thoughts

Some more numbers to chew on and some questions: 

If Gen. Syrskyi is being completely honest, and Ukrainian drone use rates are 1.5 times that of Russia, and we know - via Ukrainian sources and released comments from intelligence agencies in the Baltics - that Russian drone use is over 10,000 per day, that would place Ukrainian use at 15,000 per day, which is credible in that they were trying to get to 19,000 by the end of the year (as are the Russians). 

Ukrainian artillery (howitzers, battlefield rockets and heavy mortars) fire is on the order of 3,000 - 4,000 per day (Russian forces are using  about 12,000 per day).

IF we use the Ukrainian number of 39,000 Russian casualties per month, and we assume that all casualties are caused by drones or artillery fire (both the Russians and Ukrainians suggest the number is around 90%), then this would work out to 450,000 drones and 36,000 - 48,000 shells per month, or roughly 500,000 “rounds” causing 39,000 casualties, or 13 rounds per casualty.

If we adjust for other data (90% of casualty caused by drones and artillery), and reduce the number of Russian casualties to the more likely 21,000 per month (6,000 KIA 15,000 WIA), 18,900 casualties caused by drones and artillery, we end up with one casualty for every 26 drones or artillery round. When we consider that half of all casualties are returning to combat (true on both sides), this number doubles: 52 FPV drones per hard casualty.

There is now an immense amount of data; it needs to be pulled apart. Then, we might want to ask a few questions (partial list):

Would better ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) help?

What is the right mix of FPV drones and surveillance drones? 

Would an increase in lethality (warhead size, etc.) improve the casualty count? Increased speed? Increased range? Etc… 

Would a tighter, perhaps AI assisted, Command and Control (C2) improve or degrade results?

How much training do drone operators need to maximize their lethality? What is the point of diminishing returns on training? Is there one?

What percentage of successful attacks are carried out by small, highly trained units and what percentage by “rookies?”

How effective are multi-axis, swarm tactics as opposed to “sniping?”

Of the roughly 90% of FPV drones sorties that are not a success, how are they “lost?” (Bad ISR, bad command and control, enemy electronic warfare, shot down, technical malfunction, etc., etc.)

v/r pete