November 13th, 2026

Politics - Russia: no change in demands

- Finland: Will not leave NATO

- Starshield issues remain

Combat Ops - Strikes continue

- No change on Ground

Weather

First weather forecast with a hint of snow (next week); winter is coming.

Kharkiv

50 and light rain, rain ending tonight. Partly cloudy through the weekend, mostly cloudy next week, rain starting Wednesday and continuing through next weekend, small chance of rain turning to snow at the end of the week. Through Tuesday daily lows will be in the 30s, highs in the 40s, then some warming. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

58 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Showers tonight, partly cloudy through the weekend, then more clouds, then rain beginning Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Cooler starting tomorrow, daily lows in the 30s, highs in the upper 40s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

49 and cloudy, some rain. Cloudy Saturday, sun on Sunday and Monday, then heavy clouds and rain beginning Tuesday. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Russian demands resurfaced after the meetings in Abu Dhabi. Various Russian spokesmen, to include President Putin, made statements insisting on full control of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, suggesting Europe has no place in the negotiations as long as they support the war in Ukraine, that Finland leave NATO, that NATO active in the Baltic be dialed down, and that the territories of Transnistria and Gagauzia in Moldova be given autonomous status.

For Finland’s part, Finnish Defence Minister Häkkänen responded:

“Russia is testing the USA and Europe with absolutely scandalous political and military demands. NATO's architecture is not negotiable. We are being tested. Finland will not leave the alliance, this is not on the negotiating table.”

Ukraine’s PM Koretskyi commented that “heating season” has begun and the most boilers are are ready to go.

"The heating season has begun in the regions. The heat supply system is reaching full operational capacity. 87% of boiler rooms and heat supply companies are already operational. At the remaining facilities, the situation is under control: either repair work is being completed there, or a decision has been made not to draw the enemy’s attention. All facilities will be connected to the heating system.”

The status of Starshield is still not clear, at least to Kyiv. President Zelenskyy just this afternoon noted that he has still received “no clear explanation” for the problems that resurfaced a few days ago, and the MinDef and Commander-in-Chief had been working the problem.

Zelenskyy:

"Unfortunately, the speed limit of 161 kilometres per hour [100 mph] for our forces remains in place along the entire front line and in Ukraine's temporarily occupied territories. This makes it impossible, in particular, to use interceptors against jet-powered 'Shaheds'.

“We still have no clear explanations. I instructed Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the minister of defence to step up contacts with the US Department of State, the Pentagon, and SpaceX to obtain clarification and resolve the situation.”

In a statement last night SpaceX, which owns Starshield, denied that there had been any change in the system’s configuration.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

On Thursday Ukrainian forces struck the Lukoil Volgograd refinery, and the Samara Oil pumping station.

On Wednesday Ukrainian forces again struck Ust Luga oil port facility (60 miles west of St Petersburg). Imagery confirmed fires at the facility.

Russian Forces

During the period of November 12th-November 13th Russian forces launched at least 117 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it defeated 80 drones.

Glide bombs again struck targets in Zaporizhzhia city as well as in the Orikhiv area. Ukrainian forces are reporting 12 or more strikes per day, with some days reaching as high as 30 glide bomb strikes.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson,  Poltava, Rivne, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 63 wounded.

Note the increased numbers from yesterday’s report on the 11th and 12th - a doubling from earlier reports that suggested 123 x strike drones and an unknown number of loitering munitions.

Final count shows that during the night of November 11th-November 12th Russian forces launched at least 8 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, an undisclosed number of Zircon missiles, an undisclosed number of Banderol and Dan-T loitering munitions and 266 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it defeated 213 drones and 7 loitering munitions.

Glide bombs again struck targets in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 5 wounded.

Technology and Tactics

Russian forces drone tactics: besides using very low altitude run-ins to reduce radar detection ranges, have also been shutting down engines at known or suspected defense concentrations or acoustic sensors, thereby reducing detection ranges and response times. 

Ground Operations

There continues to be little change on the ground, though Russian forces continue infiltrating Ukrainian controlled terrain along much of the front lines, in particular in the Kupyansk area, both north-east and south-east of Lyman, east of Slovyansk, and north-west of Kostiantinivka. 

Of note, Ukrainian forces report that, north-east of Slovyansk, in the Lyman area, Russian forces continue to control the west bank of the Zherebets River, suggesting that the Ukrainian successes in this year’s Operation Vivaldi were not quite as all encompassing as earlier reported and that Ukrainian forces were unable to completely clear Russian positions just west of the river.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9          Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Nov10 Nov12 Nov13

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 89.80 93.29 96.30

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 84.69 86.32 88.97

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64 2.95   3.16   3.23 3.30 3.27

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46  6.86 5.88 5.93 5.95

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 82.99 82.93 82.59

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.36 45.42 45.37

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 72.96 72.18 71.39

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 118.57 118.76 N/A

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 99.38 99.95 103.04

ESPO Forward, 13 November - 118.53

Four of Ukraine’s largest Sunflower oil producers (Kernel (Ukraine’s largest sunflower oil producer) Viktor K, Delta Wilmar, Alef) have halted oil production due to damage for Russian missile strikes.

Ukraine has a nominal production capacity of 23 million tons per year, but, prior to these latest shutdowns had been running at roughly 75% capacity.

Thoughts

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports that the army is on track to report the highest number of Russian casualties in a month by the end of November, with the current trend pointing to a total of 54,400 Russian casualties.

As was pointed out yesterday, Russian casualties have probably been running around 6,000 to 8,000 KIA and 12,000 to 15,000 WIA per month, and staying fairly close to that average.

Ukrainian casualties have been averaging 7,500 - 9,500 KIA per month and 15,000 to 20,000 WIA per month.

UGS reports of Russian casualties have taken on some of the flavor of US body counts of Vietnam, with the numbers slowly rising over time, to prove the validity of this or that new concept of war. Ukrainian reports about a year ago began in the range of 30,000 Russian casualties per month - that is, greater than the number of Ukrainian casualties, though the Ukrainian casualty count remained sub rosa. Then, at the and of last year President Zelenskyy and Gen Syrskyi called for the inflicting of 50,000 casualties per month by the end of this year; and since then the numbers have steadily inched up and now they will in fact be reporting that number by November 30th, having officially surpassed Zelenskyy’s goal.

v/r pete