January 10th, 2025 

Ground Ops  Russian gains in Kursk salient

Russian forces control Toretsk?

Russian forces west of Pokrovsk

Politics  More aid for Ukraine

Weather

Sunday will see temperatures below freezing all day; if temperatures stay there for several days the mud will freeze and GLOCs can be set up over previously muddy roads and fields, simplifying mobility for both sides, and easing logistics support to forward units for the Ukrainians.

Kharkiv

46 and cloudy. Rain - snow tomorrow, temperatures in the low 40s. Sunday through Friday will be mostly cloudy, rain or snow showers Wednesday through Friday, otherwise cloudy and temperatures in 20s all week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20.  Rain on Saturday, then 5 days of mostly cloudy skies; daily lows will drop below freezing beginning Sunday morning and highs will remain in the low to mid 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

43 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain and snow tonight, mostly cloudy through the next week, snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures in the 40s tonight but dropping, Saturday through Wednesday will see temperature with highs around freezing, lows in the lower 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient 

Russian forces were active along most of the perimeter of the salient and advanced in at least 4 points.

Russian forces gained ground north-west of Subzha, with the confirmed occupation of Leonidovo and Aleksandriya, and also gained ground near Nikolskyi and Vikotorovka. 

North-east of Sudzha Russian forces had confirmed gains in the vicinity of Pogrebki (12 miles north of Sudzha)

South of Sudzha Russian forces continued to make small gains in the vicinity of Makhnovka (just south of Sudzha).

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported fighting at several sites on the edge of the two salients, as well as RuAF tacair strikes, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces north of Kupyansk remained on the attack but gained no ground. Due east of Kupyansk Russian forces also remained on the attack and unconfirmed  reports suggest that they gained some ground in that area, pressing due west towards Kupyansk

Due west of Svatove, Russian forces in the Zelenyi Hai area (north-east of Borova) now appear to be less than 9 miles from Borova, a gain of more than a mile in the last 2 days and more than 3 miles in the last week. Russian forces north of Makiivka  also appear to have gained ground west of the Zherebets River.

Bahkmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut fighting was rerooted east of Siversk and in the vicinity of Bilohorivka, but there were no changes in the lines in either area.

Fighting in Chasiv Yar appears to have once again evolved to very hard, street to street, building to building, house to house fighting and there were no confirmed gains or losses yesterday in the general area. Both sides report minor gains, but in all likelihood this is part of the normal, brutal see-saw fight that keeps developing in these towns and small cities; the ceramics factory in north-central Chasiv Yar appears to still be split down the middle, one half controlled by Russians, one half controlled by Ukrainians.

Further south, there was no confirmed gain or loss in Toretsk or the neighboring towns, but unconfirmed reports suggest the Russians are on the verge of forcing the last Ukrainian troops out of that town, and that Russian troops are starting to force their way into Shcherbynivka and Petrivka, just to the south and south-west of Toretsk.

Donetsk City

Russian forces had confirmed gains, with Russian units pushing north-west from the Pishchane and Solone areas and some reporting suggests that Russian elements  reached Kotlyne. Kotlyne lies about 4.5 miles west of Pokrovsk, astride the T0406 roadway as well as one of the two rail lines that runs into Pokrovsk from the west. More advances were made to the south, and to the east of Pokrovsk, but reaching Kotlyne is a key element for the Russian army effort to squeeze Pokrovsk.

To the south-east, fighting continues in the west end of Kurakhove but there were no confirmed changes in the front line in the town. Fighting also continues south of Kurakhove as Russian forces try to close up the “caldron” and Ukrainian forces refuse to give ground. However, some reporting, to include strongly pro-Ukrainian reporting, suggests that Russian forces have made gains in the cauldron and that Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the south-east corner, and are being pushed back.

Further south, in and around Velyka Novosilke and immediately north and south of that town, there were no confirmed changes to the front line, but heavy fighting continues.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting and artillery exchanges continue across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Air Operations

Russian forces  launched 70 x Shahed drones and 3 x Iskander cruise missiles into Ukrainian airspace and the UAF claim it shot down 46 drones, and 24 were “lost,” (defeated by electronic warfare). The UAF also claimed it shot down all three cruise missiles.

During the night of 7 - 8 January Ukrainian forces struck the fuel depot that supports Engels airfield, the home base of of Russia’s 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Regiment (TU-160) and the 184th Heavy Bomber Regiment (TU-195 Bear H). The oil depot was apparently still burning this morning. Engels is located just east of the city of Saratov, about 375 miles south-east of Moscow, about 500 miles east of Kyiv.

Politics

Germany’s Defense Minister announced that Germany will transfer IRIS-T missiles (anti-aircraft missiles) to Ukraine but did not provide a specific number.

The Polish Ministry of Defense announced preparations of a new package but gave no details.

The UK and Latvian Defense Ministries jointly announced that the “Drone Coalition,” which also includes Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden, will provide 30,000 drones to Ukraine worth 45 million pounds ($55 million); no time frame was given.

Canada announced a $400 million military assistance package as well, with half of that total focused on 155MM howitzer ammo, as well as purchases of drones and other equipment.

The EU provided 3 billion Euro ($3.1) to Ukraine as the first tranche of $50 billion loan from the G-7, guaranteed by frozen Russian assets.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan9 Jan10

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 76.48 80.61

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 73.60 77.67

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.58 3.94

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.35 5.30

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 102.10 102.00

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 42.38 42.26

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 71.27 72.34

ESPO 65 77 78.19 77.98 82.11

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 71.61 72.70

Thoughts

It is noteworthy that the Russian army, in response to the attack on Engels immediately stopped further… No they didn’t. As with nearly everything else - the sinking of Moskva and a hundred other events - the Russian army apparently couldn’t care less; they just keep fighting.

Striking at Engels airfield will feel very good. And the hit on the fuel faculty may affect their air operations for a while. But the Russian army had figured out how both to compartmentalize (they don’t care what else is happening) and at the same time has figured out how to keep command posts, fuel and ammo dumps, rear area troop handling points, etc., small enough and dispersed enough that HIMARS and ATACMS strikes on ammo and fuel dumps or command posts etc., do not materially effect the “ground game.”

Kyiv is gaining some morale points, and those morale points count in holding the country together, but a daily read of Ukrainian newspapers reads as if the Ukrainian Army and Air Force is ripping the Russian army apart, that every day is another clear win for Ukraine, and the Russian army is being destroyed before our very eyes; they aren’t. 

To begin, the casualty figures are no more accurate (probably less so) than the body count numbers generated for Secretary McNamara in Vietnam. Ask yourself this simple question: how could the Ukrainian army have an accurate Russian wounded count for each theater - and in less than 12 hours? KIA counts might be based on bodies seen and counted. WIA counts would need to be “stolen,” an intercept (mechanically or electronically) of some report up echelon by units or by hospitals, etc. And if that were the case, and this has been going on daily for 32 months, would Russia fudge the numbers?  Yet great stock is put in the idea that the Russians have now suffered roughly a million casualties (killed and wounded) when the hard data suggests the number is less than half that.

That is still an horrific number, but it is a number that roughly equals Ukrainian casualties.

Meanwhile, the Russian Army keeps advancing. Ukrainian efforts need to focus on stopping the Russian army. Everything that does not focus on that is, at least for right now, a sad waste of an asset.

As for the Russians, again stealing an assessment by BH Liddell Hart of the Russian (Soviet) army of WWII, they found a slow, grinding tactical approach that was also of low risk. There will be no rapid, glorious Guderian or Rommel like breakthroughs, but it would seem the Russians don’t really want one. Rather what they want is a low risk tactical approach, one with very little chance of a great loss. They need to sustain the ground war.

That is where they now sit. Russia needs to continue; Ukraine needs to focus everything on stopping the Russian ground “game” and ignore pretty much everything else except key infrastructure protection from cruise and ballistic missiles. Once they stop the Russian ground effort, they can get clever; right now they need to stop the Russian Army. 

v/r pete