January 15th, 2025 

Ground Ops - More Russian gains near Pokrovsk

Air Operations  - Russian strike on power and energy grid

Politics - Size of the Ukrainian Army

Weather

Kharkiv

32 and cloudy. Cloudy through Sunday morning. Daily high temperatures in the mid 30s, lows near freezing. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

28 and clear. Cloudy through Sunday morning, partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and Monday. Tomorrow will start in the low 20s, but by late morning will climb into the 30s and will stay in the 30s for following 5 days. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

32 and cloudy. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the next 5 days, rain possible tomorrow night. Temperatures (lows and highs) will remain in the 30s for the next 5 day. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues along much of the perimeter of the Kursk salient, and Russian forces claimed to have taken and cleared Nikolaevka, a small town immediately west of Malaya Loknya, about 10 miles north of Subzha, but this has not been confirmed. Russian sources also report gains in the Makhovka area, south of Subzha; these also are unconfirmed.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces were noted active in the vicinity of Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces remain engaged along virtually the entire line of contact north of the Donets, but there were no confirmed gains. Russian forces north of Kupyansk still have taken no new ground in their assault on Zapadne.

Further south, Russian forces pushing south along the Oskil, and pushing west from the Zelenyi Hai area, appeared to gain no ground yesterday. Further south toward the Donets River  there were also no confirmed changes in the front line. However, Russian higher headquarters are now stating that the Russians have captured Terny on the Zherebets River; this has appeared to be so for almost a week, but has yet to be confirmed. 

Balkhmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut Russian forces continue operations at multiple points, but particularly in the vicinity of Bilohorivka; there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

West of Bakhmut, in Chasiv Yar, there continues to be multiple, and contradictory reports as to who controls what section of Chasiv Yar, in particular, the ceramics plant.  Various sources say that the Russians have control, the Ukrainians have control, or control is split right down the middle of the plant. It appears, however, that the terrain surrounding the plant is in Russian hands.

Further south, in Toretsk, Russian forces appear to be clearing the city, attacking isolated elements of Ukrainian troops remaining scattered around the north and north-west edge of the town. There are two mine waste piles on the north edge of town and these are, apparently, the sites where Ukrainian elements are dug in.

Donetsk City

Russian forces just south of Pokrovsk continue to press westward and appear to have pushed into Uspenivka (8 miles south-west of Pokrovsk), as well as pushing on the towns just to the north of Uspenivka: Udachne and Kotlyne. Multiple sources report that Russian forces have cut the T-0406 roadway and the adjacent rail-line. Russian forces continue to push west (following the banks of the Solona River), and now are also pushing north-west from this area.

Just to the north-east of this area Russian forces appear to be working up the small river-valley that runs from this area into Pokrovsk, as well as working up the T0515 roadway.

To the north-east of Pokrovsk, Russian forces continue to slowly pick away at open spaces, trying to close up possible salients and straighten - and shorten - Russian lines.

To the south-east there is no change noted south-west of Kurakhove.

There was also no noted change in the front line or the situation around Velyka Novosilke.

Southern Ukraine

Operations were reported across Southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River but there were no changes in the front line.

Multiple explosions were reported this morning near a chemical plant in Berdyansk, in occupied Ukraine; no further details at this time.

Air Operations

On the  14th Russian forces launched 43 x missiles and 74 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace; the UAF claimed it shot down 30 missiles and 47 drones, 27 drones were “lost” (taken down by EW). 

• 1 x Iskander-M/KN ballistic missile
• 7 x Kh-22/32 cruise missiles 
• 4 x Kalibr cruise missiles
• 27 x Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles 
• 4 x Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles 
• 74 x Shahed drones

The UAF claimed it shot down:

• 23 x xKh-101, Kh-55 cruise missiles
• 3 x Kalibr cruise missiles
• 4 x Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles
• 47 x Shahed drones

The attack was focused on the Ukrainian power grid, to include both electric power and natural gas related infrastructure. Six separate power regions across Ukraine were without power, though it isn’t clear if this was due to damage or that the power grid had been dropped as part of offensive measures to minimize damage. Gas infrastructure was targeted in Kharkiv, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts; electric power in Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad oblasts.

On the 13th Russian forces launched 80 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace; the UAF claimed it shot down 58 drones  and that 21 drones were “lost” (EW). The UAF reported “debris strikes” in Kyiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy, and other Ukrainian officials reported drone strikes in Chuhuiv and Cherkasy.

Of note, the fire at the fuel depot at Engels field was reportedly finally extinguished yesterday afternoon.

Politics

President Zelenskyy commented last night that the Ukrainian army currently consists of 880,000 soldiers, facing a Russian force of 600,000 Russian troops.

The Ukrainian State Border Guard reported that for 2024 there were 30.11 million border crossings by Ukrainian citizens, with roughly 15.3 million leaving the country and only 14.8 million returning, 443,000 not returning to Ukraine. Of note, this reflects only those who have left legally.

The official population of Ukraine is now estimated to be in the vicinity of 33 million, down form 43 million in February 2022 (and 52 million in 1991). However, unofficial estimates suggest a mire accurate count would place the number of Ukrainians remaining in Ukraine in the vicinity of 28 million.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan14 Jan15

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 80.36 80.81

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 78.26 78.72

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.79 4.02

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.47 5.47

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 103.01 102.57

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 42.28 42.20

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 76.62 76.29

ESPO 65 77 78.19 81.86 82.31

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 75.38 75.45

Thoughts

The numbers for the Ukrainian army are of note. At the end of 2022 the Ukrainian General Staff figures noted “over 1 million in the military.”

Lat year and earlier this year the number 1.3 million was being used and late in 2024 the number “1.26 million in the Ukrainian army” was being used, it being recognized that the UAF had between 35,000 and 40,000 active duty. The size of the reserve force has been listed as 2 million. And no one has left the service except severely wounded. Ukraine Pravda, quoting the commander of Ukraine’s medical unit, has used the number that 70% of all Ukrainian wounded have returned to combat. 

This suggests that 380,000 represents the total of all killed in action plus 30% of those wounded in action. Assuming 3.5 WIA per KIA, that yields a total of 725,000 casualties for the war, with 161,000 KIA and 564,000 WIA, with almost 400,000 of the WIA now back in combat units. 160,000 KIA is consistent with other reporting, but not official reporting.

Meanwhile:

Senator Rubio, likely next Secretary of State, commented on the situation in Ukraine and a possible end to the war:

“It begins with some ceasefire…There will have to be concessions made by the Russian Federation, but also by the Ukrainians and the United States has lent itself there. It's also important that there be some balance on both sides in essence, it will be difficult to achieve this objective of a ceasefire and ultimately a peace settlement unless both sides have leverage. Putin's goal now is that maximum leverage so that he can basically impose neutrality on Ukraine, retrofit and come back and do this again in 4 or 5 years. And that's not an outcome. I think any of us would fail by the same token, I think it's important that the Ukrainians have leverage, but they also will have to make concessions to reach this agreement."

Rubio said that "as long as it takes  is not a realistic approach. I think it should be the official position of the United States that this war should be brought to an end.”

v/r pete