January 16th, 2025 

Ground Ops - More Russian gains near Pokrovsk

Politics - UK and Ukraine sign “100 Year Agreement” 

- Rutte calls for wartime mindset

Weather

Kharkiv

33 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily high temperatures in the upper 30s, daily lows near freezing. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

34 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through Sunday morning, partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and Monday. Daily lows for the next 5 days will be around 30, daily highs will be near 40. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

32 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the week. Low temperatures for the next week will be in the low 30s, highs will be near 40. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues along much of the perimeter of the salient, but there were no confirmed gains or losses. Of note, fighting continues in the Makhnovka area (south of Sudzha) with multiple claims of Russian forces now controlling the entire town, but this has not been confirmed.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported north-east of Kharkiv but there were confirmed changes to the front line.

North of the Donets River

Fighting was reported along most of the line of the line of contact. Imagery of the last several days confirmed that Russian forces have made some gains east of Borova, pressing west and south-west from the Lozova - Zeleny Hai area. Just north of Kupyansk there was some reporting that suggests Russian forces made small gains into, and immediately south of Zapadne, but this is not confirmed. 

Bakhmut

Fighting continues in the Siversk and Bilohorivka areas but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines 

Fighting continues in the middle of Chasiv Yar, and there is imagery which suggests that the Russian have, indeed taken control of part - but not all - of the ceramics factory. On the southern edge of Chasiv Yar Russian forces continue to press west along the southern edges of Stupochky and Predtechyne, and the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports Russian forces about 2 miles south-east of Stupochky, suggesting Russian forces may be trying to swing wide around Russian forces in the Predtechyne area. 

Russian forces had confirmed gains in northern and north-west Toretsk, as the fight has devolved to what appears separate fights centered on large waste deposits from the local mines. Russian reporting also claimed gains in the vicinity of Shcherbynivka, but these can’t be confirmed.

Donetsk City

Russian forces remain active east and south of Pokrovsk but there were no confirmed gains; partly to mostly cloud-covered skies is present along much of the front, which obviously impacts the commercial satellite imagery of the battlefields, though it has been noted that the weather is favorable for glide-bomb usage. There are multiple reports of Russian advances, but these cannot be confirmed.  However, UGS reports of engagements suggest the front line has moved a little further west and north-west, to include Russian forces now operating on the eastern edge of  Udachne, and up the T-0406 roadway to Kotlyne, placing them 5 miles west-south-west of Pokrovsk.

The Russian front line south of Pokrovsk now runs from Udachne and Kotlyne essentially due east to the very southern edge of Pokrovsk, about 2/3rds of a mile west of the E-50 roadway. Operations also continue to the south as the Russians try to straighten lines; and to the east of Pokrovsk, with multiple engagements on the northern perimeter of the salient, as the Russian forces try to push north and north-west.

South of Kurakhove Russian forces appear to have made incremental gains in the shrinking pocket north of the Sukhi Yaky River, slicing off a small triangle in the south-east corner of the pocket. There are conflicting reports of Russian gains around Petropavlivka (4 miles north-west of the Kurakhove) as the Russians continue to push west, and as they continue efforts to close up pockets and eliminate any possible opportunities for Ukrainian forces to exploit. There is no longer any reporting of any Ukrainian elements in the vicinity of the thermal power plant in Kurakhove.

There were no confirmed changes in the Velyka Novosilke (VN) area. Russian forces have begun to push into Vremivka (just west of VN) and there are conflicting report as to whether the Russians control Novyi Komar or not (just north of VN).

Southern Ukraine

Fighting was reported along much of the frontline and along the Dnepr River, but there were no changes noted.

Air Operations

Russia’s strike on the Ukrainian power grid on the 15th caused temporary shutdowns in Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad oblasts. The shutdowns have since ended, but Ukrenergo (the government power agency) is still warning people to limit energy use.

Politics 

British Prime Minister Starmer was in Kyiv yesterday to sign a “100 Year Accord” with Ukraine, designed to “deepen security ties” between the two countries. Stermer added the Accord is “…about investment in our two countries for the next century.”

Starmer also pledged 40 million pounds ($49 million) for Ukraine’s post-war recovery.

President Zelenskyy later said that the two men would discuss the possibility of stationing western troops inside Ukraine.

The document (see attached) talks about “…strengthening defence capabilities; enhancing security and building consensus on Ukraine's membership in NATO; building maritime security partnerships; increasing economic and trade cooperation; strengthening energy, climate, and clean energy transition cooperation; increasing justice and accountability cooperation; and combating foreign information manipulation and interference…”

As well as:

“…establish(ing) a maritime security partnership, including with the objective of strengthening of Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and Azov Sea security.”

But, there are no specifics as to certain capabilities, timelines, specific commitments of time and resources, etc.

NATO Secretary-General Rutte called on NATO countries to "shift to a wartime mindset.” He then channeled Vegetius, remarking that  “To prevent war, we need to prepare for it.”

Ukraine and Russia had their first prisoner exchange of the year, with each exchanging 25 POWs.

Meanwhile German Chancellor Scholz noted that Germany can only fund an additional $3.1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, the beyond that, “the money isn’t there.”

And Russia and Iran are reportedly preparing to sign a treaty to cover their relations for the next 20 years.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan15 Jan16

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 80.81 81.21

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 78.72 79.22

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 4.02 4.10

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.47 5.39

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 102.57 102.35

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 42.20 42.14

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 76.29 77.38

ESPO 65 77 78.19 82.31 82.71

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 75.45 76.73

Thoughts

There seems to be some collective cognitive dissonance:

The UK and Ukraine sign an agreement but inside the agreement there is no promise to do anything concrete, just promises to “consider” and “seek to strengthen” and “deepen collaboration” and “address shared challenges” etc.

The only specific point was that the agreement is in place for 100 years.

Meanwhile, the UK military is nearly broken. Nor do they have the money for a major defense build-up. Separately, they promised $3.4 billion per year for Ukraine - for as long as it takes. But that is not in the agreement and while the UK may want to do that, their own Army, Navy and Air Forces are talking about retiring more assets. The British Army including all reserves, is a force of just over 100,000 soldiers.

Can the UK meet NATO commitments and future commitments to Ukraine?

President Zelenskyy’s office noted that they “spent” $100 billion on national security in 2024; but of that, $40 billion came from the Ukrainian national budget; $35 billion was from the US and $25 billion from Europe.

Ukraine is taking a beating on the ground, and the power grid just took more hits, but they grind out news stories that they are inflicting tens of thousand of casualties every month, and claim that the Ukrainian army is destroying “90% of Russian equipment.”

By the way, Germany has said repeatedly that there is no more beyond what has already been programmed.

And there is talk of UK and the troops of other European nations being used to secure a Ukraine border.

And we are told that the Russian economy is about to collapse.

v/r pete