January 14th, 2025 

Ground Ops - More gains along the Oskil RIver

- Toretsk clearly in Russian Hands

- Gains around Pokrovsk 

Air Operations  - Engels Airfield Fuel struck again 

Politics  - NATO SecGen Rutte comments on negotiations 

Thoughts - Ukraine stripping air defense units

Weather

Kharkiv

28 and partly cloudy, gusts to 20kts. Cloudy through Sunday morning. Daily high temperatures in the mid 30s, lows near freezing. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

30 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through Sunday. Temperatures will see daily lows in the low 20s on Wednesday and Thursday, highs will be in the mid 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

28 and cloudy, gusting to 25. Cloudy for the next 4 days. Temperatures hovering around freezing, gradually climbing to the upper 30s by Sunday. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues in the Kursk salient but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continued in both small salients, and imagery confirmed small Russian gains on the eastern end of the north-east salient, near the town of Tykhe (3 miles east of Vovchansk).

North of the Donets River

Ukrainian sources report that the Russian forces on the West Bank of the Oskil river, near Dvorcihna, are expanding their lodgment on that side of the river, and trying to press down the P-79 roadway. Further south there were also reports of heavy fighting reported in multiple positions and notes that Russian forces were using coordinated air strikes, drones strikes, and artillery. It was also noted that the Russians have significantly increased their use of First Person View (FPV) drones.

Russian forces west of Svatove continue to advance and maybe be as little as 7 miles north-east of Borova, and there are unconfirmed reports of broad Russian movements further east as Russian forces clear these areas of small pockets of Ukrainian troops. There is also an unconfirmed report of a Russian crossing of the Oskil river somewhere within a mile of Senkove. (Note: One span of the Oskil river bridge at Senkove was dropped during the first few days of the war in February 2022.)

Further south, Russian forces are operating west of Terny and seeking to expand their foothold onto the west side of the Zherebets River, which is currently about 2 x 2 miles in size; there was no observed change in the terrain held in the last 24 hours.

Bakhmut

There were no confirmed changes in the Chasiv Yar area. The assessment remains that Russian forces control the ceramics factory, but this still has not been confirmed

There were no confirmed changes in the Torestk area, but the assessment remains that the town is, with the exception of several small pockets of Ukrainian troops, firmly under Russian control, and that Russian units are already pushing out the west side of the town, heading to the north-west.

 

Donetsk City

Russian forces contain to push into the small towns south and south-west of Pokrovsk. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces have cut the T-0504 (east of Pokrovsk) and T0406 (south-west of Pokrovsk) roadways. South-west of Pokrovsk all of Solone is now in Russian hands as well. Udachne and Kotlyne are being invested and units that wrapped up in Kurakhove are being moved northward to positions just east of Pokrovsk, suggesting they will join the northern envelopment of the town.

Fighting continues around Kurakhove, and south of Kurakhove, in the shrinking pocket. The fighting in Kurakhove appears to be clearing there town of isolated Ukrainian elements. In the picket to the south it appears that Ukrainian forces continue to "hold and withdraw," "hold and withdraw,” trying to slow Russian forces and then withdrawing and fighting again. Their resistance is spirited, but they are still being beaten, and one suspects the use of artillery and FPV drones by the Russians, and casualty count among the Ukrainians, are both quite high.

Around Velyka Novosilke (VN) Russian forces pushing in from the west and south-west have definitely taken Neskuchne, and are pushing into Vremivka, while other forces have made marginal gains north of VN, in the Novyi Komar area, and that these forces are now pushing up (southward, along) the Mokri Yaly River, towards VN.

Southern Ukraine

Reports of probes and artillery fire were reported across southern Ukraine, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Air Operations

Ukrainian drones agains struck the fuel depot at Engles Airfield, and the fuel facility continues to burn.

At the same time Ukrainian drones struck the Bryansk Chemical Plant, located in Seltso, a facility that makes artillery shell propellant and fuels for various cruise missiles. Seltso is about 10 miles north-west of the city of Bryansk, which is located about 60 miles north-east of Ukraine, and about 60 miles east of Belarus.

Russian air defense forces reported that more than 100 drones were launched in Russian air space and claim they shot down more than 100.

The Russian strike on the night of the 12th included 110 x Shahed drones; the UAF claimed it shot down 78 and that 31 were “lost,” defeated by EW. 

Per the UAF, a medical clinic in Kyiv and one in Sumy were damaged by debris, and a “not further identified” “element of the power grid” was also damaged by falling debris. The UAF now assigns virtually all damage to “falling debris.”

Russian sources claimed that 43 x Ukrainian drones were launched against the Kerch bridge, and claimed that Russian air defense assets shot down all 43 drones.

Politics 

NATO Secretary General Rutte commented on the possibility of peace talks with Russia:

“At this moment, clearly Ukraine is not there, because they cannot at this moment negotiate from a position of strength.”

Slovak Prime Minister Fico announced that he will not go to Kyiv to negotiate  with President Zelenskyy concerning the curtailment of natural gas shipments from Russia. When asked, Zelenskyy commented:  "Come to Kyiv on Friday.”

Slovak Parliament vice Speaker Gašpar responded:

"Yesterday, Prime Minister Fico published an open letter to Zelenskyy and invited him to negotiations. Zelenskyy replied that it is necessary to come to Kyiv on Friday. This is impossible. I think this will not happen.”

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan13 Jan14

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 80.93 80.36

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 78.12 78.26

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 4.01 3.79

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.39 5.47

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 102.85 103.01

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 42.35 42.28

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 73.68 76.62

ESPO 65 77 78.19 82.43 81.86

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 72.70 75.38

Thoughts

On January 11th Gen Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief (CINC) of the Armed Forces, ordered  the transfer of personal from the Ukrainian Air Force to the Ukrainian Army. In all, more than 5,000 soldiers are being transferred.

The initial move includes more than 200 men from each of 7 Air Defense Brigades to be transferred to the Ukrainian army and assigned to infantry units. 

The Ukrainian armed forces claims that there are currently 1,260,000 on active duty and an additional 2 million in the reserves. The Ukrainian Air Force states it has 35,000 on active duty.

The CINC first ordered some transfers in Spring of 2024, though the numbers were not given at the time. UAF personnel are now speaking out that if the latest order is executed, and 5,000 more soldiers are moved, it will drop UAF manning below 50%.

Stripping air defense units or various admin units of personnel and assigning them to infantry units is an extreme indicator of trouble, just as burning code books at an embassy is a good hint that something massive is about to take place.

The leadership, to include President Zelenskyy, has continuously and vociferously argued that Ukraine needs to improve and strengthen air defense forces. Yet here they are stripping personal out of the air defense forces and sending them to infantry units - with the obvious understanding that these folks are not trained as foot soldiers.

The only conclusion to draw from this is that the manning situation in the Ukrainian army is dire  in the face of continuing Russian attacks, and it raises the specter of a collapse in one or more theaters.

v/r pete