January 13th, 2025 

Ground Ops  Russian gains - Kursk Salient, Toretsk, South of Pokrovsk

Politics  Sanctions tightened, oil prices rise

Weather

Kharkiv

30 and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloud for the rest of the week. Temperatures in the 20s for the next 3 days, followed by 3 days of temperatures in the 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

30 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through Thursday, then heavy clouds for 3 days. Temperatures will see daily lows in the low 20s, highs will be around freezing through Thursday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

28 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Cloudy for the next 5 days. Temperatures in the 20s tomorrow, then lows and highs will be in the 30s for the following 5 days. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Russian forces continue to grind out small gains. Russian forces on the west edge of the salient crossed into Ukraine along the line of the Snahist River, just north of Zhuravka, and have now moved just east of that town; one source said they were west of the town but that would require crossing two rivers vice one, and would leave them isolated from their supplies and leave an exposed flank. The intent is probably to simply try to flank the Ukrainian forces on the west edge of the Kursk salient.

Elsewhere, there were no significant developments around the salient during the course of the weekend. 

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces continued operations but with no confirmed gains of terrain.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces had small confirmed gains due east of Kupyansk, but there were no other gains in the general area of Kupyansk.

Further south (due west Svatove) Russian forces continue to press south-west from the general area of Lozova towards Borova. Russian terrain gains have not been confirmed, but Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reporting of engagements place Russian forces less than 8 miles north-east of Borova, which would be a 2 mile gain over the weekend, if correct.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues in the general area of Siversk and west of Bakhmut in Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed advances. Anecdotal reporting from several sources suggests the Russians have taken the ceramics factory, but this has yet to be confirmed. The factory has been the center of the defensive fight; if confirmed that would be a significant gain for the Russians.

Russian forces continue to grind onward in the north-west corner of Toretsk; as well as just north and just south of the town (Dylivka and Shcherbynivka respectively). Various reports suggest that there are small pockets of Russian forces remaining in Toretsk, but they are now surrounded. Reportedly, a Russian reserve element has been moved into Toretsk to finish the fighting and clear the town. 

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to gain ground south and south-west of Pokrovsk; of note, Solone is now under Russian control, as is Novovasylivka, and Russian forces continue to press north and west. Uspenivka, just west of Novovasylivka, is now being attacked by the Russians. Ukrainian forces continue to hold just south-east of Kotlyne, with troops in contact about a quarter mile south of the rail line heading west. Zelene, located due south of Pokrovsk a bit more than 2 miles has also been taken by the Russians.

South-east of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to press west, south-west and south, and continue to take the small towns in the area as they straighten up their lines; the town of Slovyank (12 miles south of Pokrovsk) appears to have been captured over the weekend.

Further south, Russian forces cleared Kurakhove and the surrounding area. The Ukrainian controlled pocket south of Kurakhove is being squeezed and the eastern edge is roughly aligned with the small town of Dachne, west of the Kurakhove reservoir.

The pocket, with was about 10 x 12 miles about 10 days ago is now about 4 x 4 miles in size and collapsing. Russian forces appear to have crossed to the north side of Sukhi Yaly River and have taken the town of Yantame (less than 3 miles south of Dachne)

Russian forces remain on the attack around Velyka Novosilka (VN), with Russian forces holding on the eastern edge of the town as other Russian forces have attacked south from the area of Novyi Komar, while also attacking into Vremivka - the town on the south-west corner of VN; reporting indicates the fighting is taking place in that area as of this afternoon. Two of the three roads into and out of VN remain under Russian control (O-0510 (to the west) and T-0518 (to the north-east)) The third road (O0509), which runs north and then north-west, may be under Ukrainian control, but is under direct fire from Russian artillery, and Russian forces are pressing on those Ukrainian forces remaining in the town.

 

Southern Ukraine

Russian forces remain active across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr river but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Russian shelling of Kherson did damage the power grid and 23,000 houses were without power this morning,

Air Operations

Russian forces launched 139 drones and missiles into Ukraine in the last 24 hours but there is no breakdown by type, or the number successfully engaged by the UAF.

Russian forces conducted drone strikes on the 11th, with 94 x Shahed drones launched into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 60 drones  and 34 drones were “lost,” defeated by EW. 

Per President Zelenskyy, Russian forces conducted 700 strikes with glide bombs and more than 600 x Shahed drones during the week of 6 - 12 January.

Overall, for December 2024, Russian forces launched 1,700 x Shahed attack drones into Ukraine, down from a total of 2,300 in November.

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes near three Russian command posts on 8, 10 and 12 January in the Donetsk area, specifically against those forces attacking Pokrovsk.

Saratov authorities (where Engle’s airfield is located) reported that the fire at the oil storage facility is still burning and that it has destroyed 3 fuel tanks holding a total of 30 million gallons of fuel.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan10 Jan13

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 80.61 80.93

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 77.67 78.12

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.94 4.01

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.30 5.39

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 102.00 102.85

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 42.26 42.35

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 72.34 73.68

ESPO 65 77 78.19 82.11 82.43

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 72.70 72.70

Note: Russian oil prices are delayed between 9 hours and 3 days and they are still dealing with the sanctions placed against Russian shipping last Friday (see below):

The Biden administration has tightened sanctions on the Russian oil and gas companies Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, as well as on 180 more oil tankers (bringing the total to 270 tankers under sanctions). 

The International Energy Agency estimates this will reduce available oil by almost 1 million barrels per day.

The Kremlin responded by suggesting that the US action will destabilize global markets:

“It is clear that the United States will continue to try to undermine the positions of our companies in non-competitive ways, but we expect that we will be able to counteract this. At the same time, of course, such decisions cannot but lead to a certain destabilization of international energy markets, oil markets. We will very carefully monitor the consequences and configure the work of our companies in order to minimize the consequences of these … illegal decisions.”

Thoughts

Reporting on several Russian blogs this afternoon claims that all of Toretsk has fallen, as well as re-asserting that the ceramics factory in Chasiv Yar has also been taken by the Russians and that the Russians are now pushing into the residential area that abuts the ceramics factory.

Further south, Russian forces continue to press westward from their holdings south of Pokrovsk, but they are also now pushing into the outskirts of Pokrovsk from the south and the southwest.

Chasiv Yar may well fall in the next 2 weeks, Pokrovsk has already been reduced to rubble and Russian forces continue to press westward and north-westward in order to encircle Pokrovsk, and Russian forces in Toretsk will press to the north-west to put pressure on Kostyantynivka, which will increase the pressure on both Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

The long and short is that the Ukrainian army is now out-manned and the war of attrition seems to have reached a point where Russian numbers and Russian tactics have evolved and the Russians are now gaining ground - and necessarily, inflicting casualties on the Ukrainians - at a rate that exceeds the Ukrainian ability to absorb. 

v/r pete