September 22nd, 2025 Autumnal Equinox

Politics - Estonia provides detail on MiG-31 flight

- Russia asks for sanctions relief for aircraft parts

Combat Ops - Large air strike on Saturday 

- Russian gains, Kupyansk and around Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

81 and sunny. Sunny tomorrow, highs in the 80s, then partly to mostly cloudy for the rest fo the week, lows in the 40s, highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and sunny. Sunny al week; on Tuesday nd Wednesday daily lows in the 50s, highs around 80, then seven days with lows in the 40s and highs in the low 60s.   Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

79 and sunny, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny through the week; tomorrow lows in the 50s, then lows in the 40s all week, highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics 

Estonian Defense Forces released a map over the weekend showing the track of the 3 x MiG-31 Foxhounds which violated Estonian airspace on Friday morning. The three aircraft paralleled the north coast of Estonia, and based on the EDF track, entered Estonian airspace about 30 miles north-east of Tallinn, and then flew south-west in a straight line, roughly parcelling the coast, remaining just inside the 12 mile territorial limit. They may have overflown the northern tip of Naissaar Island (just north-west of Tallinn), but one source says closest point of approach to Estonian land was about 6 miles). The aircraft were intercepted by NATO alert aircraft (Finnish and Italian AF) and exited Estonian airspace about 70 miles due west of Tallinn, a track of about 90 miles, which translates into 400kts over ground. The NATO alert fighters continued escort until the aircraft entered Russian airspace around Kaliningrad, where they landed.

The three MiGs did not have on any IFF or tracking transponders. An IL-20 surveillance aircraft, operated in international airspace over the Baltic on Sunday, and also did not squawk. The IL-20 was escorted by NATO (German) aircraft.

The MiG flight on Friday was  the 40th intrusion into Estonian airspace since 2014; there were three such events during the past summer (May 13th, June 2nd and September 7th).

Reuters reports that Russia has asked ICAO (the International Civil Aviation Organization) to ease sanctions on buying parts from western manufactures for its civil aviation fleets (Boeing and Airbus aircraft), claiming that the current sanctions are “discriminatory and coercive”; ICAO is currently meeting in Canada.

Russian airlines have a total of roughly 700 Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

President Zelenskyy once again asked for help in improving Ukrainian air defenses, and spoke with NATO SecGen Rutte on the issue.

Per Zelenskyy:

"Ukraine conveyed to partners the current need for air defense - in systems and missiles, the presence of which can significantly influence events and limit Russia's ability to fight. We discussed with Mark the implementation of the PURL program, primarily in terms of air defense, what is needed most urgently.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues across the perimeter of the would-be Russian buffer zone, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line over the past 3 days.

North of Kharkiv imagery confirmed Russian gains in western Vovchansk on Friday, and appear to control what remains of the Vovchansk Oil Extraction facility in western Vovchansk.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting appears to be increasing inside Kupyansk; unconfirmed reports suggest that Russian forces have made gains in the center of the city, but these reports have not been confirmed. Nevertheless, there are reports that Russian forces have reached, and now control, the railroad station near the center of the city. If this is correct, the two ends of the “pincer” of Russian forces, pressing in from the north and in from the west, are now less than a mile apart, and perhaps just half that apart. There are also reports (also unconfirmed) that Russian forces have taken Kindrashivka (north-west of the city about 3 miles) and have cut the P07 roadway that runs roughly east-west through the city, and is the major GLOC that supplies the city.

Further south, there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have taken Shandryholove on the Nitrius River.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKOROVSK

North of Bakhmut fighting continues north and east of Siversk but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues west and south-west of Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. 

West of Torestsk Russian forces appear to have made some gains in closing the pocket just east of the Kleban Byk Reservoir, but these are not confirmed.

Further west, around the August salient, Ukrainian forces continue to attack, Russian forces continue to hold, and additional Russian forces appear to be moving into the area and there were no changes to Ukrainian thrusts east of Bilytske, and south-west of Shakove, which would suggest that adequate Russian forces have arrived in the area to stop the Ukrainian counter-attack. If this is consistent with other counter-attacks, additional Ukrainian forces will need to push into these small salients to keep them moving or the Russian forces will grind them down.

Just north-east of Pokrovsk, in the Novoekonomichne area, Russian forces made small gains, centered mainly on the H32 roadway.

Elsewhere north and north-east of Pokrovsk there were no changes to the front lines.

West and south-west of Pokrovsk, to the north bank of the Vovcha River, Russian forces had confirmed or probable gains in several areas.

Just west of Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed Russian control of Muravka (15-16 miles south-west of Pokrovsk, along the south bank of the Solone River), giving the Russians control of the south bank of that river, inside Donetsk Oblast.

Further south, there are unconfirmed but probable claims of Russian control of Filiia, about 2 miles due south of Novopavlivka.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, Russian forces continue to grind forward, and per SOP, are “filling in” pockets between towns, and straightening lines. The Russian line in the south now runs along the east side of the Vivian from just south of Ivanivka, south through Sosnivka, and then continues south to Berezove and further south to Novoivanivka.

The key point is that Russian forces are in the processing of straightening their line (roughly north-south), clearing out would-be salients, and then continuing to grind westward. Ukrainian forces are operating without prepared defenses and seem to be having great difficult stopping the Russian grinding movement.

Further west, Russian forces continue to probe and attack along the line from the Orikhiv area, west to the Dnepr River, but there were no confirmed gains. Other reporting does suggest that Russian forces have dug in, around Plavni and the Prymorske railroad station.

Russian forces were reported active around the Antonovskyi bridge north of Kherson.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 21st-September 22nd, Russian forces launched 1 or more S-300 ballistic missiles and 141 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 132 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in  Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk,  Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 7 Ukrainian towns.

At least 7 civilians were killed and at least 4 were wounded as a result of strikes. 

During the night of September 20th-September 21st, Russian forces launched 54 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 33 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts.

There were no reports of civilian casualties. 

Per President Zelenskyy, for the period of September 14th through the 20th Russian forces launched more than 1,500 strike drones, 1,280 FAB glide bombs, and 50 missiles into Ukrainian airspace.

During the night of September 19th-September 20th, Russian forces launched 8 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 32 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 579 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 2 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles, and 552 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

At least 2 civilians were killed and at least 16 were wounded as a result of strikes. 

During the night of September 18th-September 19th, Russian forces launched a not yet reported number of ballistic missiles and 86 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 71 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 1 Ukrainian town.

At least 5 civilians were killed and at least 2 were wounded as a result of strikes. 

Russian use of drones to interdict ground lines of communication (GLOC) is expanding, with drone strikes on logistics trucks being reported around Lvov, in western Ukraine. Ukrainian army personnel comment that vehicle movement now requires electronic warfare support at all times. And, closer to the front, Russian fiber-optically controlled drones deny that support to trucks on GLOCs and Ukrainian forces are trying to cover roads near the front with netting to deny easy strikes by drones.

There are unconfirmed reports that a new generation of Russian fiber-optic drones are now under production with an effective range off 60 kilometers (36 miles).

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep19 Sep22

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 67.03 66.23

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 63.14 62.28

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 2.87 2.92

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.24 5.14

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 83.46 83.69

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.36 41.36

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 63.19 61.56

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 69.84 67.84

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 63.73 63.43

Thoughts

The “Drones over Poland and “MiGs over Estonia” incidents should serve as a wake-up call to NATO to get back up on the step from an air defense perspective, but NATO 35 years ago had a a great deal of experience in dealing with (then) Soviet aircraft skirting along NATO airspace. In fact, though some have forgotten it, both Soviet and NATO aircraft regularly flew missions deliberately close to the other’s airspace to test reaction times and collect intelligence. Aircraft were intercepted  and escorted and there were only a few cases of overreaction. 

It would seem that NATO needs to collectively remember how to contain these events and not over-react. At the same time, Poland and NATO need to take a hard look at their capabilities; it should be disturbing to all that 19 drones (19 slow moving drones) entered Polish air space and only 3 (or maybe 2) were shot down. 

Of greater note, that the Russians can now conduct FPV drone strikes on individual trucks in western Ukraine represents a significant increase in the “degree of difficulty” in moving supplies to front line forces. This, of course, comes on top of near constant drone strikes on GLOCs around cities such as Pokrovsk, Kostiantinivka and Kupyansk.

v/r pete