September 3rd, 2025

Politics  - 8 Heads of State meet wtih Zelenskyy 

- NATO SecGen expects clarity Thursday on security guarantees

- Hungary ForMin pushes back at EU, and Ukraine 

Combat Ops - Some Russian and Ukrainian gains

- Russian giant around Kupyansk

- Russian gains in Pokrovsk

 

Weather

Kharkiv

76 and sunny. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny all week, daily lows around 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

77 and sunny. Mostly sunny weather all week. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Various heads of state (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden) are meeting with President Zelenskyy this week to discuss what is possible in the nature of security guarantees to Ukraine. 

Finland’s President Stubb said they were making progress but added:

“We need to coordinate the security arrangements with the United States, which essentially will provide the backstop for this … We’re focusing on these issues with our chiefs of defence, which are drawing the concrete plans of what this type of operation might look like… 

We’re making progress on this and hopefully we’ll get a solution soon.”

Stubb added that he was not optimistic about a ceasefire or peace treaty happening soon.

NATO SecGen Rutte commented on a meeting of NATO leaders on Thursday that:

 “I expect tomorrow, or soon after tomorrow, to have clarity on what collectively we can deliver... That means that we can engage even more intensely, also with the American side, to see what they want to deliver in terms of their participation in security guarantees.” Rutte added: “We have to prevent spreading our resources too thinly, and this means that we always have to look at what the impact will be on the NATO plans."

Russia continues to reject the idea of any European security force in a post-war Ukraine.

Hungary ForMin Szijjarto poked at the EU this weekend, in response to remarks from EU President von der Leyen about Russia preparing for war and Chancellor Merz of Germany calling for Germany to do the same.

Szijjarto commented that: 

"At today’s EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Copenhagen it became clear that Brussels and most member states are preparing for a long war, not peace…They want to send tens of billions of euros to Ukraine for soldiers’ salaries, drones, weapons, and the operation of the Ukrainian state. They completely ignore Hungarians in Transcarpathia and our energy security, still refusing to answer the joint letter we sent with Slovakia on Ukraine endangering our supply route.”

Hungary supports a US - Russia peace agreement, while opposing fast-track EU accession for Ukraine, funding the Ukrainian army, and any sanctions that might affect Hungarian energy costs.

South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports that the ROK National Intelligence Service (NIS) says that North Korea will send 6,000 more troops to Russia; 1,000 NK army engineers are already in Russia. The Russian government already announced this 6,000 + 1,000 deployment in June.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, along the border; imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces in the Vovchansk area worked northward along the Vovchansk river and regained ground on the west side of that city. Unconfirmed reports claim that Russian forces have gained ground just west of the E105 roadway.

Of interest, anecdotal reporting is that drone usage has recently increased in this general area and is said to be “intense.”

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Hard fighting continues around Kupyansk. Immediately west of Kupyansk Russian forces have pressed into Myrove (Moskavka) and appear to have pushed the Ukrainian element out of the small salient they had created since late last week in the north-west quarter of the town; Myrove now appears to be controlled by Russian forces. Whether that is permanent remains to be seen. Reporting also suggests Russians gains into central Kupyansk and into Sobolivka, with some Russian sources saying that town (Sobolivka) is also in Russian hands, but this remains unconfirmed.

Further south, near Lyman, there are reported Russian gains north-west, north, and east of that town. Russian forces pushing to the south and south-west appear to be approaching Shandryholove, and are just east of Novoselivka, but this is unconfirmed. Further east, imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces on the south side of Zarichne (on the Zherebets River) have pushed eastward into the south side of that town.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut Russian forces continue to press on Siversk from 3 directions but there were no confirmed gains. East of Siversk is now a 4 mile (east to west) by 8 mile (north to south) pocket, and Russian forces continue to push west along the north and south edges. The Russian MOD claimed yesterday that Russian forces have taken the town of Fedorivka, due south of Siversk about 6 miles, just south of the south edge of the pocket. Meanwhile, Russian recon elements continue to probe into Siversk itself.

West of Toretsk, fighting continues in and around Katerynivka, and Ukrainian forces remain dug in and holding.

Russian forces continue to conduct probes towards Kostiantinivka, and there are reports of probes entering the town but these have not been confirmed. Russian Air Force strikes continue to target sites in Kostiantinivka with FAB 500 (150lb) glide bombs. South-west of Kostiantinivka, Russian forces were imaged inside Volodymyrivka - about 12 miles west-south-west of Kostiantinivka).

Further west, Russian forces appear to be stabilizing what remains of the August Salient: the salient now pushes about 6 miles north of previous Russian lines and is about 4 miles wide on average. The bast on the eastern side is slowly being pushed forward and Russian forces are almost inside the town of Shakhove. Ukraine forces which had pushed perhaps 2.5 miles into the western base of the salient,  just east of Bilytske, have been pushed back about half that distance.

West of Pokrovsk about 5-6 miles, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces out of Udachne, just north off the Solone River, However, inside Pokrovsk, reporting strongly suggests that Russian forces have penetrated southern Pokrovsk along Shevchenka street and are perhaps 6 blocks inside the town, roughly even with the line east from where the T0406 roadway enters the city. Russian forces appear to be driving up Shevchenka street toward the city center and the railroad station.

  Further south, Russian forces just north of the Vovcha River appear to control Dachne; the town has changed hands several times in the last month or so. Further west fighting continues on the south edge of Filiia, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces continue to attack west along the Oleksandrohrad - Vorone - Zaporizke line, but there were no confirmed gains in this area, nor were there any changes south of Orikhiv or further west in in the Plavni - Prymorske area.

Air Operations

During the night of September 2nd-September 3rd, Russian forces launched 16 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 8 x Kh-101 cruise missiles and 502 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 14 Klaibr cruise missiles, 7 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 430 Shahed drones. Energy infrastructure was again targeted.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnitsky, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Rivne,  Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblasts; 

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian towns.

At least 11 civilians killed, and 17 wounded.

During the night of September 1st-September 2nd, and during the day on the 2nd, Russian forces launched 203 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 168 Shahed drones. Energy infrastructure was again targeted, but several apartment buildings and housing complexes were struck and suffered damage.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv and Sumy oblasts; 

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian towns.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 5 wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep2 Sep3

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 68.34 68.06

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 64.85 64.43

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 2.92 3.11

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.23 5.27

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 80.64 80.99

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.42 41.37

Urals 91.66 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 62.30 62.21

ESPO 94.52 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 70.35 71.34

Sokol 99.31 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 64.94 65.32

Bloomberg reports that Urals oil is being marketed off of Brent prices, Russian sleeper offering a $3 to $4 discount for futre sales (October contracts) .

Russian gasoline exports remain suspended due to the shortage of gasoline inside Russia following several successful strikes on Russian refineries.

Today the Verkhovna Rada released its latest estate on rebuilding costs, placing it at $520 billion.

Thoughts

The situation in Myrove - Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and the August salient just north-east of Pokrovsk all show facets of the same operational and tactical reality: Russian forces can stumble into a success (as they did north-east of Pokrovsk), Ukrainian forces can respond more quickly and both push back the Russian gains and exploit any seam they find, but the Russian main effort continues to grind forward and seems to “roll over” these Ukrainian gains.

Once again, there is no dramatic shift in the line, in some cases it is like watching concrete set, but the Russians do continue to grind forward. And, they apparently continue to move their defensive lines forward. Some blogger maps make an effort to follow reports on defensive lines and bunkers, and as an example, north-east of Pokrovsk, at the base of the August salient, Russian defensive lines have already moved forward, and they now have a defensive line about 2.5 miles south of Shakhove.

Of note, I am fairly certain that since the end of 2022 Ukrainian forces have not breeched a fully prepped Russian defensive line. The closest they came was the Summer 2023 Counteroffensive south of Orikhiv, that pushed past the first two elements of the line but never penetrated the third section. And, as of yesterday, Russian forces appear to have (not yet confirmed) recaptured the terrain they lost in that counteroffensive.

v/r pete