September 24th, 2025 Next Summary 29 September 

Politics - President Trump comments

- Hungary will not stop buying Russian energy

- Zaluhnyi comments on 2023

Combat Ops - Some small gains on both sides

- Ballistic missile strike on Ukrainian training facility

Weather

Kharkiv

70 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Sunny on Thursday then mostly cloudy into next week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds northerly, 10kts.

Melitopol

82 and sunny gusting tp 20. Cloudy tomorrow, the sunny through the weekend; daily lows in the 40s and highs in the low 60s.  Winds north-easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

55 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Sunny to partly cloudy to mostly cloudy as the week progress. Daily lows in the upper 30s through Saturday, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds northerly, about 10kts.

Politics 

President Trump posted:

After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form. With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is very much an option. Why not? Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years a War that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win. This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like “a paper tiger.” When the people living in Moscow, and all of the Great Cities, Towns, and Districts all throughout Russia, find out what is really going on with this War, the fact that it’s almost impossible for them to get Gasoline through the long lines that are being formed, and all of the other things that are taking place in their War Economy, where most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine, which has Great Spirit, and only getting better, Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that! Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act. In any event, I wish both Countries well. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them. Good luck to all! 

Hungary’s ForMin Szijjártó commented that Hungary will not stop buying Russian oil, despite President Trump’s request.

"We are a landlocked country. It would be great if we had access to the sea: we could build an oil refinery or an LNG terminal on the coast and enter the global market. But we don't have that.”

Hungary is one of 8 EU nations that still import energy from Russia: Belgium, France, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain.

Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK (former General) Zaluzhnyi commented on the 2023 counter-offensive, and the thrust into Kursk oblast in an interview with the Ukrainian online paper “Mirror of the Week:” 

"Breaking an enemy front such as this required decisive superiority in capabilities at the breach point, together with mobile reserves capable of rapidly entering the gap created and moving into the operational depth before enemy reserves could counterattack or establish a new defensive line. For both objective and subjective reasons, we were unable to achieve that superiority prior to the assault."

"Today, reviewing my own notes, I can only repeat that both Russia and Ukraine have reached a positional deadlock similar to what happened during World War I. Since late 2022, fighting on the Donetsk front has gradually become positional."

"Of course such actions [Kursk operation] can be carried out if they are justified primarily by human losses and have limited objectives. However, experience has shown that ultimately an isolated tactical breach in a narrow sector of the front does not bring the required success to the attacking side. The defending troops managed to make use of both technological and tactical advantages, and in time, they not only prevented the tactical breakthrough from turning into an operational success but also carried out their own tactical advance, also without operational success. I don’t know what the price of these actions was, but it is obvious that it was too high."

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the perimeter of the Russian occupied terrain, and there are Russian claims of gains near Varachyne (a tiny village (population of 60) about 15 miles north-east of Sumy City. The Russian claim mentions “forests” outside of the town, though there are no real forests, just assorted patches of woods between assorted fields; the terrain is overwhelmingly manicured farmland.

North of Kharkiv, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed south along the rail line in western Vovchansk.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around  Kupyansk but there were no changes in the front lines.

Imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces, about 15 miles south-east of Borova, have pushed perhaps 3 miles into Russian lines in the farmland west of Novovodiane, creating a salient that is more than 3 miles long and about 2 miles across.

Further south there are more Russian claims of gains around Shandryholove and the surrounding area but these have not been confirmed.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed Russian gains both north and south of Siversk, have pushed into a small industrial facility about 2 miles north of Siversk itself, and Russian recon elements probed into Siversk.

There were no confirmed changes in the immediate vicinity of Chasiv Yar.

Just west of Toretsk, imagery confirmed Russian gains in Pleshchivka and Nelipivka, 2 small towns just east of the east end of the Kleban Byk Reservoir, further isolating the Ukrainian elements that remain on the south side of the reservoir.

North-east of Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces pushed further east from the Bilytske area, reaching Novotoreske, a 4 mile long, 1 mile wide salient. 

The obvious will now happen: Ukrainian forces will keep pushing forces into the salient, Russian forces will try to pinch off the salient and isolate and roll over the Ukrainian forces inside.

Elsewhere, fighting continues along most of the front lines north-east and west and south-west of Pokrovsk. Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces pushed back into Novomykolaivka (about 12 miles south-west of Pokrovsk, along the Solone River), which the Russians had seized just two days ago.

Further southwest, on the north bank of the Vovcha River, imagery confirmed Russian forces had entered Ivanivak, but they do not control the town.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues south of the Vovcha and across southern Ukraine, but there were no changes in the front lines on the east end of the line.

West of Orikhiv, just east of the Dnepr River, Ukrainian forces pushed south out of the center of Stepnohirsk and retaken the “Dacha” section, a cluster of about 12 - 15 apartment buildings located just south of the city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 23rd-September 24th, Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 152 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 126 Shahed drones. 

Two Russian Iskander ballistic missiles struck a Ukrainian army training facility, a Russian ballistic missile struct Dnipro city this afternoon, and another ballistic missile struck Chernihiv. It was noted that there wrecked casualties but the numbers have not been released.

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

There have been no reroots of civilian casualties yet.

Ukrainian naval drones (USVs) struck the Russian Black Sea harbor of Novorossiysk this afternoon. Casualties reported include at least 2 killed and 3 wounded. 

During the night of September 22nd - September 23rd Ukrainian forces more than 130 x drones into Russian airspace, striking oil facilities in Bryansk and Samara oblasts, and attacking targets in the Moscow area. 

Russian air defenses claimed it shot down “more than 130” drones. There were no independent reports of damage to oil facilities, but fire was imaged at one pumping station.

During the night of September 22nd-September 23rd, Russian forces launched 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 115 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 103 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 Ukrainian towns.

At least 6 civilians were killed and at least 20 were wounded as a result of strikes. 

 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep23 Sep24

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 67.19 68.44

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 62.98 64.20

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 2.79 2.84

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.10 5.21

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 83.63 83.78

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.38 41.39

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.35 62.51

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 68.97 70.03

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 63.43 64.08

Thoughts

President Trump’s words speak for themselves. 

I assume there is also a large "bag of carrots” that are also on the table. I pray it succeeds.

That said, the Ukrainian Amy could be developed into a force capable of driving the Russians out of Ukraine, but they will still need to overcome a tremendous manpower problem, not least of which is in excess of 6,000 desertions per month. 

v/r pete