September 30th, 2025

Politics - European Leadership to talk about air defense over western Ukraine 

- Putin signs decree for conscripts

- Arrest made in connection with Nord Stream pipeline

Combat Ops - Russian gains near Siversk, west of Toretsk, in the south

- Air strikes: power outage, civilian casualties 

Weather

Kharkiv

53 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Cloudy all week, rain Thursday, and Friday morning, and again on Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

54 and cloudy, gusting to 30. Cloudy all week, rain possible Thursday and again on the weekend. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 60s.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

53 and cloudy, gusting over 30. Cloudy all week, rain possible Wednesday night and Thursday, more rain next weekend. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

The Telegraph is reporting that European leaders will meet in Denmark at the end of this week to discuss setting up a European (not clear if this is NATO or EU or ad hoc) air defense net over western Ukraine. The rough boundary would be front eh mouth of the Dnepr River northward to just east of the city of Kiev. East of that line would be the Ukrainian Air Force area of responsibility (AOR), west would be the European AOR.

President Putin signed out the decree for the fall (semi annual) conscription cycle (begins tomorrow (October 1st)), with a target of 135,000 conscripts between now and December 31st. Conscripts have not served in the war directly. After 12 months, however, conscripts enter a reserve status and can then be called up for service into the war. 

This number (135,000) is consistent with the last 7 conscription cycles, which have averaged just over 135,000, with eh low being 120,000 and the high 150,000.

A man identified as “Volodymyr Z” has been detailed by Polish authorities in regard to the strike on the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022. The man, a Ukrainian diver, is being held in anticipation of extradition to Germany.

In 2023 a German investigation concluded that the explosion was the result of a Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian group. 

The man’s lawyer is contesting the extradition.

This is the seconds man who has been arrested in regard to the sabotage of the pipeline. In August “Serhii K” was arrested in Italy, and the courts ordered his extradition to Germany earlier in September. His extradition is also being challenged.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the edge of the would-be Russian buffer zone north of Sumy city, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, along the border, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

East of Kharkiv, along the border, north of the Oskil River, imagery confirmed Russian gains in the mostly open terrain north of the small town of Ambarne. How much terrain the Russians really control isn’t clear, with some sources suggesting they are just north-west of Ambarne, while others suggest they have pushed within a mile of Khatnje (the next town to the west) and that Russian forces now control the terrain to the north, east and south of Ambarne.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines around Kupyansk, but some pro-Ukrainian sources are suggesting Russian forces have reached the P07 Roadway just south-west of Kupyansk. Fighting and probes continue inside the city.

Further south, at the southern end of the Zherebets River, imagery confirmed that both Russian and Ukrainian forces had made small gains in and around Yampil, once again a sort of Yin - Yang maneuvering in Yampil and the nearby Serebrianske forest.

To the west, imagery confirmed Russian gains in Shandryholove, along the Nitrius River.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut, Russian forces pushed north-west along the line from Vyimka to Siversk and imagery confirms Russian forces are now about 2.5 miles south-east of Siversk proper. The terrain between their current position and Siversk is open farmland, with a reservoir about a mile up the rail line, the north end of the reservoir about a mile outside of Siversk.

Other reporting suggests Russian forces are now at most 1.5 miles due east of the center of Siversk.

Fighting continues west of Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

In the broad area between Pokrovsk and Toretsk, imagery confirmed Russian gains north of Rusyn Yar, as Russian forces continue to push north of the T0504 roadway. Further west, around the Russian salient north-east of Pokrovsk, fighting continues at the base of the salient with no gains by either side, either due east of Bilytske or just south of Shakhove. Ukrainian reporting suggests Ukrainian gains just north-east of Bilytske, but this has not been confirmed.

Fighting continued at multiple sites immediately east and north-east of Pokrovsk but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

South-west of Pokrovsk, Russian forces had confirmed gains along the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk oblast border.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, Russian forces continue to press westward and imagery confirmed that, as of Sunday, Russian forces had pushed into the center of the village of Verbove. Other reporting suggests that Russian forces have pushed through Verbove and are within 1 mile of the next town to the west Vyshneve.

Along the Dnepr River, Russian forces were active raiding across the river near the Antonovskiy bridge (just up river from Kherson).

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 29th-September 30th, Russian forces launched 65 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 46 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, and  oblasts. Power was out in parts of Chernihiv.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports confirm at least 4 killed in Kyiv, and 13 injured..

A Ukrainian missile strike (using Neptune missiles) struck the Elektrodetal plant in Karachev (a city in Bryansk oblast, about 75 miles east of Belarus, and 75 miles north-east of the Ukrainian border) on the 29th, damaging the facilities boilers and an assembly facility and the plant has reportedly been forced to suspend operations.

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck an oil depot in Crimea on the 29th, in the Feodosia area, and reportedly left the site on fire. The strike, and damage, has not been independently confirmed.

During the night of September 28th-September 29th, Russian forces launched 32 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 23 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports confirm at least 4 killed in Kyiv, and 13 injured, and another 40 wounded across the country.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep29 Sep30

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 68.19 67.13

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 63.70 62.54

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.18 3.31

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.19 5.17

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 82.81 82.43

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.29 41.26

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 65.89 63.04

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 71.82 68.89

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 65.65 63.64

Thoughts

NATO certainly has the technical and tactical ability to set up an air defense grid over western Ukraine; this has been done before (over the Balkans, over southern and northern Iraq, etc.) 

Nor will Rules of Engagement (ROE) be a major issue in the simple sense, as all the incoming targets in western Ukraine will be drones or missiles; there will be no issue of shooting at manned aircraft.

But it does, of course, raise several issues.

First, there is the basic question of what assets will be used? Whose aircraft and aircrew, and how long will it be sustained? Which surface-to-air and air-to-air weapons inventories are going to be further depleted? Basing, rotations, etc., can all be worked out, but in the end, this is a real expense and someone will need to pay: in operating budget, ordnance, and wear and tear on the aircraft and all the supporting infrastructure. And it imposes an opportunity cost on NATO nations.

But the second issue is simply whether this represents NATO nations becoming active combatants with Ukraine, against Russia. Russia right now is at war with Ukraine, but not with NATO. Would Russia interpret this as NATO deciding to go to war with Russia?

v/r pete