OCTOBER 1st, 2025

Politics - Russian Oil Purchases by European nations

- EU to provide money for Drone Production 

Combat Ops - Marginal gains on ground, poor weather affecting mobility

Weather

A short, intense storm system struck Odessa yesterday, dropping between 6 and 8 inches of rain in 7 hours. The resulting flooding killed at least 9 people, and so far 362 people had to be rescued by city fore and rescue personnel. More severe weather is predicted for Thursday.

Rains continue over much of the country - will impact mobility

Kharkiv

49 and cloudy, gusting to 25. Rain tonight and again on Sunday, cloudy all week. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs around 60. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

52 and rain,  gusting over 25. Cloudy all week, rain possible on the weekend. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 60s.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

51 and cloudy, gusting to 25. Rain tonight and tomorrow, then cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, highs rising into the 60s by Sunday. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Spain have sent more money to Russia - purchasing energy - since 2022, than they have provided Ukraine aid. THe purchases have primarily been of LNG.

The four countries have purchased $40.1 billion in in LNG from Russia, while providing $24.8 billion in aid to Ukraine.

In addition to the four countries named above, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, and Slovakia continue to buy energy from Russia.

Nor should it be missed that Russian oil is sold to middle men who mix it with other oil, then sell it - legally to other nations where it is refined and then refined products are purchased by European countries, and that this loop hole has been known since the first sanctions were leveled against Russia.

EU Commission President von der Leyen announced the EU will provide 2 billion euros ($2.34 billion) to Ukraine for drone production, with some funds to be turned over immediately.

European nations are also involved in talks to build a “drone wall” - a defensive network to defend Ukraine and Europe from drones, recognize that the network or “wall” must recognize that shooting down drones that cost thousnads of dollars with missiles that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars is not the correct approach.

President Zelenskyy commented that the US is currently working on the 5th and 6th armaments package under the NATO Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List initiative (PURL). Zelenskyy said that the goal is 1 $1 billion of weapons per month through PURL

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy but there were no changes in the front line.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city, and there are claims of marginal Russian gains around Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. Further east, along the border north of the Oskil River, there are also more unconfirmed reports of minor Russian gains near Ambarne.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk with numerous reports of marginal gains by both sides. The fight has once again settled into something seen again and again in this war, brutal short range fights, block to block, sometimes house to house, see-sawing back and forth a street at at time, small elements - usually less than a squad in size (less than 10 soldiers), heavily supplemented with drones and artillery. But there are large numbers of troops in the city and reportedly elements of the Azov Corps have been committed to the defense of the city in an effort to hold it.

Of interest, reporting suggests that Ukrainian drone operators primarily target individual soldiers, while Russian drone operators target vehicles.

Further south, south-east of Borova, imagery showed both Ukrainian and Russian forces making gains in the Druzhelyubivka - Hrekivka area. 

This is repeated further south, with Ukrainian forces making gains around Karpivka and Russian forces appearing to gain control of Zarichne.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut, in the Siversk area, imagery confirmed Russian gains north of Siversk in the Dronivka area (a town of perhaps 500 before the war), they may have gained control of Maly Siversk - a small village (perhaps 50 homes) about a mile east of Dronivka, and imagery confirmed they made small gains south of Siversk in the Zvanivka area.

Fighting continues north-west and west of Chasiv Yar, but there were no changes in the front lines.

West of Toretsk there has been a good deal of fighting but no changes in the front lines until you get out to the area north of Poltavka, where Russian forces continue to push north along the small river and string of reservoirs and have reached a point about 3 miles north of Poltavka.

Further west, fighting continues on both sides of the base of the August salient - south of Shakhove, and east of Bilytske, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Elsewhere, the only confirmed charges was in the area of Udachne (west of Pokrovsk), where imagery showed Ukrainian forces have control of most of that town.d

There are multiple claims of Russian gains around Pokrovsk, but none of them can be confirmed and many probably reflect recon probes, not actual control of terrain.

Further to the south-west, down to the north bank of the Vovcha River, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River and west to Orikhiv and the Dnepr River, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, though Russian forces continue to conduct probes and strikes.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 30th-October 1st, Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Onyx cruise missile, and 49 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 44 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk and  Kyiv oblasts. There is a partial blackout in Chernihiv oblast.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports have not included casualty reports.

During the night of September 29th-September 30th, Russian forces launched 65 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 46 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, and  oblasts. Power was out in parts of Chernihiv.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports confirm at least 4 killed in Kyiv, and 29 injured..

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep30 Oct1

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 67.13 65.52

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 62.54 61.88

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.31 3.36

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.17 5.03

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 82.43 81.24

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.26 41.17

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 63.04 62.28

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 68.89 68.89

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 63.64 62.85

Thoughts

Two thoughts:

First, I am, perhaps, beating a dead horse here but the path to weaken Russia was well discussed in the 2019 Rand Studies (“Overextending and Overbalancing Russia" and “Extending Russia”) pointed at Russia’s economy, and specify rally Russia’s energy industry, as the optimum area to apply pressure, and specifically stated that increasing US energy production and thereby holding down prices - and hence Russian revenues, was the single most significant step course of action to weaken and thereby contain Russia.

Yet, there are still 8 countries in Europe buying energy from Russia. Europe has a plan to end these purchases, but the plan was just completely this past March (3 years into the war), with final purchase not slated until 2028.

It is perhaps of note that US crude oil production and total “liquid energy” production just hit all time highs.

The Rand Study also noted that a military option played to Russia’s greatest strength in the long run.

Second, a study this past week shows that 45% of Ukrainian men aged 18-22 plan to stay in Ukraine.

On the other hand, 23% definitely plan to go abroad, and presumably the remaining 32% are considering it.

Demographic studies show that there were 700,000 Ukrainian males aged 18-22 remaining in Ukraine when the travel restriction was lifted in August, and a net outflow of 27,000 has already taken place.

At the same time, it is now openly discussed that there is a shortage of foot soldiers - infantry - in the army and there are reports of further stripping of rear echelon units in the army and air force, and turning them into riflemen. 

v/r pete