OCTOBER 14th, 2025
Politics - Zelenskyy to meet with Trump in Washington on Friday
- Lecornu - France’s new (and old) PM, begins selecting new ministers
Combat Ops - Some small gains by both Ukrainian and Russian forces
- More damage to power grid
Weather
Autumn weather has arrived - cloudy, always a chance of showers, lows at night dropping to around 40, may dip occasionally into the upper 30s, rarely warmer than upper 50s.
Kharkiv
47 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
53 with cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy all week except tomorrow, which will be sunny; rain on the weekend. Daily lows upper 30s to 40, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
44 and cloudy, wind gusting over 20. Cloudy all week, warming by Friday, showers on the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s by the weekend. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.
Politics
President Zelenskyy will meet with President Trump on Friday the 17th in Washington. A delegation led by PM Svyrydenko is arriving in Washington today and will meet with members of the Trump administration, members of Congress, and weapons contractors.
Among the topics to be discussed are air defense assets and Tomahawk missiles.
On Friday President Macron of France reappointed Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minster and on Sunday Lecornu began the process of appointing new ministers and begin the work to produce a new budget. Lecornu resigned on October 6th after 27 days as Prime Minster.
Parties on both the left and right are calling for Macron to resign; Macron has said he will not. He faces several “no confidence” votes this week, both La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) on the left, and Rassemblement National (National Rally) on the right filed no-confidence motions on Monday in the National Assembly.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no changes to the front lines.
Fighting continues north of Kharkiv City but there were no changes to the front lines, nor were there any changes to the border region north of the Oskil River.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting continues the length of the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.
However, in Kupyansk Russian recon elements continue to probe into the city and probes have now reached perhaps a half miles south of the P07 roadway - pushing into southern Kupyansk and threatening any supply flow into eastern Kupyansk or to Ukrainian forces immediately east of Kupyansk.
North-east of Borova Russian forces claim to have taken control of Borivska Andriivka, but this has not been confirmed.
BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK
There were no changes in the front lines north of north-east of Bakhmut.
North of Chasiv Yar, imagery showed Russian forces had crossed the canal and have pushed into the terrain south of Novomarkove (a small farming village of fewer than 100 people). Russian forces probed into Markhove (just west of Novomarkhove) in September but did not hold it. This is probably another probe, not an effort to hold this small town.
Further south, just west of Toretsk, imagery showed Ukrainian forces in the northern edge of Shcherbynivka, about 3 miles south of (behind) the front lines. It’s not clear as to the size of the Ukrainian element, and this too may simply be a probe, so, holding this position may be problematic.
Fighting continued around the perimeter of the August salient, with Ukrainian forces confirming that Russian forces have taken control of Dorozhnie, on the west side of the salient, just north-east of Bilytske. Imagery also confirmed small Russian gains east of Pokrovsk.
Further to the west and south-west imagery confirmed Russian gains west of Kotlyarivka (about 15 miles south-west of Pokrovsk; on the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border) and further south, north of the Vovcha river, near Dachne; and in the terrain south and east of Novopavlivka. It isn’t clear that the Russians have full control over the terrain, both they are simply pushing recon elements into the area.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
South of the Vovcha River there are claims of Russian gains west of Verbove area, but these have not been confirmed. It would appear that Russian forces are now trying to get through the last Ukrainian defenses just outside Verbove; if they succeed, there is an open stretch of terrain to the west for about 50 miles with essentially no defensive positions.
There are also unconfirmed claims of Russian gains in and around Poltavka.
Further west, Ukrainian forces Ukrainian forces claimed that they have pushed into Shcherbaky, west of Orikhiv and now control that town.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of October 13th - October 14th, Russian forces launched 96 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 69 Shahed drones.
Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts.
Power outages were noted in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kyiv oblasts.
Civilian casualties include at least 4 dead and 3 wounded..
RuAF tacair conducted strikes in 3 towns.
Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in Feodosia oil terminal and two electric grid substations on Crimea, reportedly damaging 11 fuel tanks and leaving the facility on fire.
During the night of October 12th - October 13th, Russian forces launched 82 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 69 Shahed drones.
Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Power outages were noted in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. As with most power outages, power is restored to most facilities in less than 24 hours. But the damage to the systems accumulates and as winter arrives the recovery times will increase.
Civilian casualties include at least 5 dead and an unknown number of wounded..
RuAF tacair conducted strikes in 8 towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Oct13 Oct14
Brent 94.71 70.44 66.90 67.03 66.18 63.62 62.40
WTI 92.10 68.65 64.29 63.26 62.48 59.86 58.65
NG 3.97 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.44 3.10 3.04
Wheat 8.52 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.06 4.98 4.96
Ruble 85 78.47 79.74 84.03 81.28 80.39 79.72
Hryvnia 28.6 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.60 41.79
Urals 91.66 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.15 58.89 58.84
ESPO 94.52 71.58 68.63 68.32 66.74 63.78 65.12
Sokol 99.31 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.95 59.57
The Financial Times is reporting that Russia’s coal industry has lost $2.8 billion in the period between January and July 2025. World-wide, coal prices are down 78% since 2022.
Thoughts
There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian units are being shifted to the Sumy area in an effort to push Russian forces out of the would-be buffer zone north of Sumy city, and that Ukrainian forces will conduct a thrust into Kursk oblasts (Russian terrain), just to the west of the current Russian salient.
At the same time, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian units being moved to the Pokrovsk are, just south of Pokrovsk (focused on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and that both sides are pushing forces into the Kupyansk area. Fighting in all these areas are being described as fierce.
Of particular note is that Russian sources say that in the past few days Russian forces have pushed into south-east Pokrovsk and fighting is now taking place over industrial faculties in the south-east sector of the city. Fighting is also reported in Rodynske, just north-east of Pokrovsk, and if the reporting is even a little bit accurate, Russian forces are making gains in Rodynske, which could threaten the entire Ukrainian pocket east of Pokrovsk. Again, fighting was described as fierce.
What is also of note to me is that the ferocity of the fighting, it doesn’t seem to have abated even as the rain and cooler weather has arrived. As I said, much of this is unconfirmed, but what really strikes me is that neither side is slowing.
v/r pete
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