OCTOBER 13th, 2025 COLUMBUS DAY (Observed)

Politics - President Trump comments on Tomahawk Missiles

- The Ukrainan Population

Combat Ops - Marginal Russian gains on the ground

- Drone strikes continue, power grid damaged

Economics - Russian oil product shipments fall in September 

Weather

Autumn weather has arrived - cloudy, always a chance of showers, lows at night dropping to around 40, may dip occasionally into the upper 30s, rarely warmer than upper 50s.

Kharkiv

46 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 with partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy all week except Wednesday, which will be sunny. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the upper 50s.  Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

47 and partly cloudy, wind gusting over 35. Showers tonight, cloudy all week. Daily lows around 40, daily highs near 50. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

President Trump once again commented that he may transfer Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, while en route to Israel.

“They’d like to have Tomahawks. We talked about that. And so we’ll see. I might talk to him [Putin]. I might say, ‘Look, if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send them Tomahawks.' The Tomahawk is an incredible weapon, very offensive weapon. And honestly, Russia does not need that. I might tell them [Russia] that if the war is not settled that we may very well do it. We may not, but we may do it.”

There are multiple variants of the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM), with ranges in excess of 1,000 miles, and a warhead weight of about 1,000 lbs. The last nuclear capable TLAM was retired more than ten years ago.

Tymofii Mylovanov, former Ukrainian Minister of Economics and current director of the Kyiv School of Economics, suggests that Ukraine’s population may shrink to 10-15 million people by 2035.

"This will be a bit of a forecast from the air, but my pessimistic estimate is this: 10-15 million Ukrainians may remain in Ukraine. According to the optimistic scenario - if the war stops, we will move to the EU - people will gradually return.” 

"It will be a bit like in Israel. If there is a recovery, a positive vibe, and we cope with the external challenge, become part of the EU, there will be much more meaning to life here.”

His more optimistic forecast is that the population will be in the 30 to 40 million range.

Mylovanov also noted that after the war ends Ukraine will need to attract 10 million workers to rebuild the economy.

In 1991, when Ukraine became independent, it had a population of 52 million. By the start of 2022 it had dropped to 43 million. The population is now estimated at 32 million.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Heavy fighting is reported across this front but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line, nor were there any changes along the border north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues inside Kupyansk and to the west; Russian forces appear to have control of Myrne (Moskovka), just west of Kupyansk; exactly how much of Kupyansk Russian force control isn't clear, but they have progressed nearly to the center of the city (the intersection of the P07 and P79 roadways, and control the north side of the city to a point perhaps several hundred yards north of that intersection, on hte west side of the river.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains just north of the city, pushing into Radkivka, about 3 miles north of the city.

South of Kupyansk fighting continues along most of the front line but there were no confirmed changes all the way to the Donets River.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut - fighting continues in the Siversk area, and imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces pushed into the town of Pereizne, about 5 miles south of Siversk. Pereizne was a small farming town of about 650 before the war, and lies between the rail line that runs into Siversk on the east edge of the town, and the Bakhmutovka River, that forms the west edge of the town; the town was taken by Russian forces in September.

There were no changes noted in the front lines west or south-west of Chasiv yard, or immediately west of Toretsk.

Further west of Toretsk (north-east of Pokrovsk) fighting continues along the perimeter of the August salient and in adjacent sections of the front lines, but there have been no substantive changes in the line. Just to the east of the salient fighting continues in and around Volodymrivka and just south-west of Shakhove; on the west side of the salient fighting continues east of Bilytske.

In and around Pokrovsk imagery confirmed Russian gains in Rodynske (just north of Pokrovsk), and there are multiple claims of Russian gains on the south side of Pokrovsk and just to the east of the city, and there are claims that Russian forces pressed into the city and took control of the railroad station in the middle of the city. This is almost certainly an exaggeration, but it is likely that Russian recon elements are pushing deeper into the city, which suggests some problem with manning or perhaps movement of Ukrainian units and Russian forces operating around these unit moves.

South-west of Pokrovsk, north of the Vovcha River, fighting continued but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, Ukrainian sources are reporting Russian gains in the Poltavka area (9 miles north-east of Hulyaipole) and fighting continues along this entire front as the Russians continue to press westward.

West of Orikhiv, imagery confirms a Ukrainian element has retaken the town of Mali Shcherbaky as of Sunday.

Russian sources claim Russian gains in Stepnohirsk but these have not been confirmed.

Fighting was reported on several islands in the Dnepr River but there are no details on exactly where or the size of the units involved.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of October 12th - October 13th, Russian forces launched 82 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 69  Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Power outages were noted in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad,  Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. As with most power outages, power is restored to most facilities in less than 24 hours. But the damage to the systems accumulates and as winter arrives the recovery times will increase.

Civilian casualties include at least 5 dead and an unknown number of wounded..

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in 8 towns.

Ukrainian drones struck Smolensk airfield and the nearby production facility on the 12th, though the extent of the damage has not been established. The facility makes parts of the Kh-59 and Kh-101 cruise missile. Smolensk is about 30 miles east of the Belarus border, about 150 miles north of Ukraine.

There is an unconfirmed report of a Russian glide bomb striking a target near Vovchansk, approximately 55 miles from the drop point. The US JDAM-ER (Joint Defense Attack Munition - Extended Range) has a range of roughly 45 miles, so this report is credible, depending on drop altitude, drop airspeed and amount of maneuvering required of the weapon.

During the night of October 11th - October 12th, Russian forces launched 1 x Kh-31 cruise missile and 118 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 103 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Odesa oblasts. More than 9,500 homes in the Kyiv area were left without power for about a day.

During the night of October 10th - October 11th, Russian forces launched 78 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 54 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa oblasts. 

As a result of strikes on the 8th and 9th 725,000 households were without power in Kyiv City and Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad and Sumy oblasts; damage from earlier strikes was still under repair in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts. Water was restored in Kyiv on the 10th, but still had not been fully restored in Kirovohrad Oblast.

President Zelenskyy noted the poor weather during the attack and commented that the Russian were taking advantage of the weather, that the weather caused a “20-30% reduction” in the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses.

During the night of October 9th - October 10th, Russian forces launched 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 14 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 12 x Iskander cruise missiles, 4 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 465 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile, 4 Iskander ballistic missiles, 9 Iskander cruise missiles, 1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 405 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Multiple power outages were reported in several oblasts: Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia; much of Kyiv was also left without water; the mayor's office reported water was expected to be restored to everyone by the end of the day.

RuAF tacair struck at least 1 Ukrainian towns, using long range glide bombs to strike deep into Dnipropetrovsk.

Preliminary reports indicate at least 1 civilian killed and at least 20 wounded.

Ukrainian drones struck the Korobkovsky Natural Gas Processing Plant in Kotovo, (about 100 miles north-north-east of Volgograd), on the 8th, but there is no independent damage report yet.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Oct10 Oct11

Brent      94.71    70.44 66.90 67.03 66.18 63.81 63.62

WTI     92.10    68.65 64.29 63.26 62.48 60.08 59.86

NG       3.97         3.35 3.06 3.12 3.44 3.18 3.10

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.18 5.22 5.06 5.04 4.98

Ruble     85          78.47 79.74 84.03 81.28 81.60 80.39

Hryvnia 28.6 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.65 41.60

Urals 91.66 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.15 60.81 58.89

ESPO 94.52 71.58 68.63 68.32 66.74 67.02 63.78

Sokol 99.31 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.95 60.95

Per Reuters, Russian sea-borne exports of oil products dropped from 9.44 million tons in August to 7.58 million tons in September

Thoughts

Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid continued all through summer in 2024, but were less common this past summer. However, the Russian targeting concept appears to have changed; last year the focus appeared centered on the large pieces: the power plants themselves, and only secondarily on the various sub-elements, the transformers, the distribution centers, etc.

This year the Russian strike effort seems to have shifted to these other elements, and while anecdotal (no totals were ever reported out) it appears that the Ukrainians are having more people affected on a daily basis than they did last year.

It remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian power companies have the right mix of trained personnel, support equipment and spare parts to service this much more spread out problem as the strikes continue. My suspicion is that they will need additional support from Europe to be able to rapidly restore power following these attacks.

It looks to be another long winter for Ukraine.

As for Russian oil product exports and the problem of cash flow to support the war effort, the thought occurs to me is “What sort of deal will Beijing twist out of Putin in exchange for keeping his economy moderately healthy?”

v/r pete