OCTOBER 2nd, 2025 YOM KIPPUR

Politics - Slovakia: resumes relations with Belarus, comment on sanctions 

- Chancellor Merz: “No longer at peace.”

Combat Ops - Russian gains in the north and the south

Economics - Gasoline Prices up in Russia

- ZNPP shifting to Russian Grid…

Weather

Rains continue over much of the country - will impact mobility and there has already been a reduction in the tempo of operations in some sectors of the front.

Kharkiv

56 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, except partly sunny on Sunday. Rain showers Saturday night and Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

60 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, except sunny on Sunday, rain showers on Monday. Daily lows upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the 60s.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

44 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers on Sunday. Daily lows mid 40s to 50, daily highs in the 50s. Winds easterly, 10kts.

Politics 

Slovakia has stated it intends to improve relations with Belarus, with Ambassador Migas (Slovakian ambassador to Minsk) announcing that the two countries are renewing relations after a 5 year break. Migas commented during an interview on Tuesday:

“At the current stage, sanctions are a very limiting factor in Slovak-Belarusian relations, not only in trade and economic areas, but also in interpersonal, tourist, and cultural ones, i.e. in key avenues. Our intention is to give momentum to Slovak-Belarusian cooperation and friendly relations."

“We are going to restart our relations after five years of stagnation, which began in 2020.”

As for sanctions:

“These abnormal, unhealthy, lawless, and illegitimate modern practices with sanctions continue to exist to this day; in some areas of interstate and interpersonal relations, they are even deepening. This has nothing in common with civilized development at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century. It is time to put an end to this. The sooner, the better! It will be better for everyone.”

Slovakia has been a NATO member and EU member since 2004.

German Chancellor Merz, last Sunday, at a news conference in Dusseldorf, when asked whether Europe and Russia were at war:

“We are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either.”

The EU will provide a 4 billion Euro ($4.68 billion) aid package to Ukraine, drawn for interest on seized Russian assets.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues but there were no changes in the front lines either north of Sumy city or north of Kharkiv, though there are unconfirmed claims of marginal Russian gains on the south side of the Vovcha River, north-east of Kharkiv.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There were no confirmed changes in the frontlines as they run through Kupyansk, but Ukrainian sources continue to report multiple Russian recon probes through Ukrainian lines.

Just north of the Donets River, on the west bank of the Zherebets River, Russian forces appear to have pushed westward through Zarichne, and through the last hard defensive positions in that town. This leaves relatively open terrain between Russian forces and the defensive positions just outside of Lyman, about 5 miles to the south-west.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Russian reports suggest more incremental gains both north and south of Siversk, but these have not been confirmed.

Fighting continued west of Chasiv Yar, and immediately west of Toretsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Further west of Toretsk, just on the east and north side of the town of Poltavka (between the August salient and the T0504 roadway, 15 miles north-east of Pokrovsk), credible reporting suggests Russian forces have made gains in this area and are closing the gap between them and Russian forces in the salient to the west. The small Ukrainian salient south of Shakhove (around Pankivka), which pushed into the base of the Russian salient from the east, is being squeezed and is mostly gone (confirmed in imagery), and the small Ukrainian salient east of Bilytske has also been attacked and has been reduced in size to perhaps half of what it was several days ago. Along the road that runs through Pankivka, Shakhove and Sofiivka there is roughly a brigade (3,000 +/-) troops, elements of several Ukrainian regiments, and there are small fortification in Shakhove and Sofiivka, but the rest of the terrain is open. The Russians are now trying to squeeze that terrain.

Fighting continues around Pokrovsk and to the west and south-west, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Russian forces continue to grain ground. 

In the vicinity of Myrne (5 miles south of the Vovcha and 4 miles east of the Vovcha after it turns south) the small Ukrainian salient has been reduced in area by half and Russian attacks continue.

Further south-east, Russian forces have taken Verbove (about 15 miles north-east of Hulyaipole), and appear to have taken the east side of the town of Poltavka, (about 10 miles east-north-east of Hulyaipole).  Taking Verbove places Russian forces 6 miles from a major ground line of communication that runs into Hulyaipole from the north, and if they take Poltavka they will be between the two major east-west defensive lines, and can approach Hulyaipole over mainly undefended terrain. Hulyaipole is the major logistics and command and control center for the south-east corner of Ukrainian controlled terrain.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of October 1st-October 2nd, Russian forces launched 86 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 53 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernohiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Sumy oblasts. There were partial blackout in Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns.

At least 1 civilian was killed and 11 injured.

Both Ukrainian and Russian sources indicate that some newer versions of the Shahed drones have “night vision” cameras. 

During the night of September 30th-October 1st, Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Onyx cruise missile, and 49 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 44 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and  Kyiv oblasts. There were partial blackout in Chernihiv and Kyiv oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 Ukrainian towns.

At least 1 civilian was killed and 30 injured.

On October 1st Ukrainian drones struck a Russian oil refinery at Yaroslavl, (150 miles north-east of Moscow).

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct1 Oct2

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 65.52 64.81

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 61.88 61.30

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.36 3.49

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.03 5.14

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 81.24 81.46

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.17 41.28

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 62.28 61.24

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 68.89 66.51

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 62.85 61.71

Damage to Russian oil refineries has reportedly resulted in a significant decrease in gasoline production, with various reports noting 6, 8, 14.5, 18 and 38% reduction in refining capacity. Some gasoline hoarding has been noted, most stations are limiting the amount of gasoline any single customer can purchase, and prices are up. The official price is 57 rubles per liter ($2.66 per gallon), average reported prices have risen from 61 rubles per liter to 64.1 rubles per liter; but there are reports of prices as high as 97 rubles per liter ($4.52 per gallon).

Russia has extended the hold on gasoline exports through October, and there are reports of efforts to buy gasoline from China.

The Ukrainian Intelligence Service reported yesterday that Belarus has resumed sale of gasoline to Russia. Belarus is not a major refiner of gasoline, producing a total of 3.4 million tons in 2024; Russian gasoline consumption is on the order of 25 million tons per year.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid since September 23rd in preparation for it being attached to the Russian Power grid, and the safety systems are currently being powered by auxiliary diesels. The reactors themselves have been in a “shutdown” status since April 2024.

Hungary signed a contract to purchase LNG from France, purchasing 400 million cubic meters of natural gas per year between 2028 and 2038, reducing its demand for Russian energy. This equates to about 5% of Hungary’s energy needs.

Thoughts

It seems to be a small tactical issue, but the two small Ukrainian salients into Russian controlled terrain on either side (at the southern end) of the August salient, have been gradually eaten away. Similarly, the salient west of Myrne (south of the Vovcha River in southern Ukraine) has also been slowly eaten away.

This is of note in that it suggests that there is no real change in the course of the fighting on the ground: Russian forces grind down Ukrainian positions, moving slowly, taking little risk. Ukrainian forces, have better mobility and can exploit seams between two units at the tactical level, and open up small salients. But these units can only push so far, and once they stop the Russians gradually bring forces up and squeeze the salients.

This process has slowed a bit in some areas in the past week as the autumn rains - and chillier weather - have arrived. There have been heavy rains across southern Ukraine, and some rain pretty much all over the country, and the temperatures have begun to drop into the 50s and even 40s at night - not horrible, but certainly not pleasant, particularly if you are wet. But, reporting has not reflected traffic being “pushed” off fields and back onto roads but scattered imagery has shown more and more mud and presumably that has already happened along most of the front lines.

Meanwhile, the Russia gains just north and south of the Donets River (east of Lyman, and near Siversk), as well as the gains in the south, show that Russian ground operations retain the initiative. 

Meanwhile, the statements of the Slovakian ambassador and Chancellor Merz would suggest, at least to me if I were sitting in the Kremlin, that the EU and NATO hardly represent a united front and that added pressure will continue to produce political gaps between the various nations of Europe.

v/r pete