OCTOBER 15th, 2025

Politics - 1,000 Ukrainian men heading to Germany per week

Combat Ops - Mandatory Evacuations vic Kupyansk

- Emergency power outages across Ukraine

Weather - See note

Weather

Of note, cloud cover and rain showers are interfering with commercial satellite imagery of most areas, resulting in fewer confirmed changes on the ground, while also limiting effectiveness of reconnaissance drones and allowing more aggressive Russian operations.

Kharkiv

46 and cloudy. Cloudy all week and into next week. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

51 and partly cloudy, wind gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, except Friday, which will be sunny; rain on the weekend. Daily lows upper in the 30s, daily highs in the upper 50s.  Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

45 and cloudy, wind gusting over 25. Cloudy through the weekend, rain on Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, gradual warming, daily highs in the upper 40s rising to the mid 50s by the weekend. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

According to Die Welt, following the August lifting of the travel ban on Ukrainian men 18 to 22 years of age, the number of Ukrainian men arriving in Germany has increased from 100 per week to 1,000 per week, according to the German government’s Ministry of the Interior.

They also report that the Ministry stated that the total number of Ukrainians traveling to Germany has also increased, from 7,961 in May to 11,277 in August and 18,755 in September.

As of October 4th, 1,293,672 Ukrainians had fled Ukraine and entered Germany after February 2022. Some 450,000 are no longer registered as residing in Germany though not all of them are known to have left Germany.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces pushed into the center of Oleksiivka due north of Sumy city, while fighting continues along essentially the entire front line in the Sumy Oblast.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and Russian reports claim small gains on the south side of the Vovcha River, but these are not confirmed. Nor were there any confirmed changes in the front lines along the border just north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There are multiple reports of Russian forces attacking essentially the length of the line of contact north of the Donets River but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

It is of note that Ukrainian sources now reflect that the “gray zone” or "no mans land" inside Kupyansk now extends south past the intersection of the P07 and P79 roadways and at least several hundred yards into southern Kupyansk.

Also of note, mandatory evacuations were ordered for 40 towns and villages in the Kupaynsky area: Velyky Burluksky community: Ambarne; Balka; Buryakivka; Velyky Burluk; Holubivka; Horyane; Doroshenkove; Zhukiv Yar; Zamist; Zeleny Gay; Kanivtsevo; Krasnoyarske; Kupyevakha; Lebedivka; Lytvynivka; Malakhove; Mantsivka; Mykilske; Mykhailivka; Novoselivka; Pidseredne; Ploske; Siry Yar; Sonino; Chervona Khvylya; Yuriivka; Yayechne. Vilhuvatsky community: Prykolotne; Hohyne; Fedorivka; Dovzhanka; Kurhanne; Slizneve. Shevchenkove community: Baranove; Berezivka; Duvanka; Spodobivka; Starovirivka; Novomykolaivka; Fedorivka.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines north of Bakhmut, in the Siversk area, west of Chasiv Yar, or immediately west of Toretsk.

Russian forces - and the Russian MOD - however are making some specific claims:

Russian forces claim to have taken control of Predtechyne (just south-west of Chasiv Yar, just north-east of Kostiantinivka) and have begun to probe into Kostiantinivka from the north-east, releasing pictures of a Russian recon element and claiming they had entered the city (there was no way to prove it - the image showed nothing but several men and trees, with no embedded locating data).

West of Toretsk, Russian force also claimed that they had finally cleared the terrain south and east of the Kleban Byk Reservoir and were pressing on to invest the towns of Pleshchiivka and Ivanopillia, just east of the reservoir. Again, this is not confirmed, and contradicts confirmed reports that Ukrainian troops had pushed into Shcherbynivka (just west of Toretsk) as of Monday, though they could obviously have been pushed out yesterday.

Further west, Russian forces did have confirmed gains just east of the August salient, taking terrain just east of the town of Shakhove; this was the most recent company sized operation (see my thoughts below).

On the west side of the salient there were no confirmed changes but anecdotal reporting suggest that the Ukrainian gains just east of Bilytske have been retaken by the Russians and the “bottom” of the salient is probably stiffening.

A good deal of fighting was reported just east and north-east of Pokrovsk and Russian sources claim gains in several towns just east of that city, but none of this has been confirmed.

Russian sources also claimed gains in and around Novopavlivka, but again, these remain unconfirmed with no confirmed changes to the front line from Pokrovsk west and then south to the Vovcha River.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues on the roughly north-south line south of the Vovcha River but with no confirmed changes in this area. Russian forces did claim gains west of Piddubne, pushing up to the east bank of the Vovcha and entering the town of Iskra (also called Andriivka Kletsove), but again these are most likely recon probes.

From this area southward to Verbove (about 15 miles south-south-west) Russian forces continue to probe westward,, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Further west, west of Orikhiv, imagery confirmed small Ukrainian gains on the southern edge of Stepnohirsk, pushing back into the cluster of apartment buildings just south of the town.

Fighting was also reported just upriver from Kherson, along the Dnepr River near the Antonovskiy bridge, but as usual there are no details.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of October 14th - October 15th, Russian forces launched an unknown number of ballistic missiles and 113 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 86 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk (missile strike) and Sumy oblasts.

Power outages were noted in parts of Dnipropetrovsk.  

At least 2 civilians killed and 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in 4 towns.

Emergency power outages have begun for most of Ukraine as repair work continues on the results of the attacks of the last several days.

During the night of October 13th - October 14th, Russian forces launched 96 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 69 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad and Sumy oblasts. The strike was primarily directed at the power grid. Power outages were noted in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kyiv oblasts. 

Civilian casualties include at least 4 dead and 60 wounded..

RuAF tacair conducted strikes in 3 towns, to include a glide bomb that struck a hospital in Kharkiv (and remarkably injured 57 but killed no one).

Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in Feodosia oil terminal and two electric grid substations on Crimea, reportedly damaging 11 fuel tanks and leaving the facility on fire.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Oct14 Oct15

Brent      94.71    70.44 66.90 67.03 66.18 62.40 62.66

WTI     92.10    68.65 64.29 63.26 62.48 58.65 59.07

NG       3.97         3.35 3.06 3.12 3.44 3.04 2.98

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.18 5.22 5.06 4.96 4.96

Ruble     85          78.47 79.74 84.03 81.28 79.72 78.46

Hryvnia 28.6 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.79 41.61

Urals 91.66 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.15 58.84 56.58

ESPO 94.52 71.58 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.12 63.42

Sokol 99.31 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.91 59.57 58.81

Thoughts

One of the groups that produce detailed analysis of the war commented on the recent (last week) assault Russian forces conducted just east of the August salient, noting that over the course of a week, at several different points on the front line they conducted attacks with company-sized units (120+/- men, and if an armored unit, given losses, between 5 and 10 tanks and 5 - 10 IFVs), and in one case with a battalion sized unit (3 or 4 companies). In the case of the battalion attack the Russians attacked with 35 armored vehicles (and lost 3 tanks and 16 IFVs in the attack). It was noted that part of this was taking advantage of poor weather (rain and fog and windy conditions that reduce the effectiveness of drones both as attack assets and as reconnaissance assets).

Strictly speaking, they are correct and I don't disagree with that assessment. But I think it reinforces several other points:

The war remains overwhelmingly a small unit infantry war supported by artillery and, on any given day, hundreds of drones - recall that Russia is producing 50,000 small, fiber optically controlled drones per month, plus a similar number of radio controlled drones. Ukraine’s numbers on drone production (not fiber optically controlled) are probably similar. By small unit I mean Russian attacks on 3 - 5 troops moving forward in tree lines or under some other cover, finding and attacking Ukrainian positions, whether single or after meeting up with several other teams, normally with the support of drones and artillery. These company sized assaults had already become rare by early 2024 and nearly disappeared last year. They now happen perhaps once or twice a month, and larger assaults - a full battalion (3 or more companies) - are seen so rarely that they stick out like a sore thumb.

This reinforces the attrition nature of the war: capturing large swaths of a land when running small unit infantry assaults isn’t going to happen. Rather, the troops move forward quietly in very small teams (sometimes 1 at a time), assemble, find a Ukrainian position, call in artillery and dozens, then assault it. Then they often withdraw, regroup, and do it again the next day. The object is to find those small groupings of Ukrainian soldiers and inflict casualties.

I suspect the larger groupings (a company or two, or perhaps a battalion) is only moved when there are the right environmental elements (bad weather, so no drones) a an assessment that the Ukrainians are few in number.

More broadly, it supports the assessment that the Russians retain the initiative. It also hints that Russian forces are more confident in their operations, that they sense they have some small amount of momentum on their side, at least in several areas: near Kupyansk, in the Chasiv Yar to Pokrovsk area, and north-east of Hulyaipole.

At this point, Russian forces need to keep the initiative, keep pushing forces forward, and keep adding pressure where there are any sings of the Ukrainian line weakening.

Ukraine, on the other hand, needs to find a way to stop the Russian attack, take the initiative away, which given the Russian way of war as it has developed over the past two years, will be very difficult.

v/r pete