OCTOBER 6th, 2025

Politics - Angela Merkel blames Poland for the war

- Czech Election results - Babis wins

- France - PM Lecornu steps down

Combat Ops - Marginal gains, weather may be slowing the fight

Weather

The fall rains appear to have arrived. This will complicate logistics, and also reduce drone performance and degrade sensors.

Kharkiv

54 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, rain starts Thursday, continues in next week. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 60s until Thursday; after that lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

57 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy all week, rain showers starting Thursday morning, continuing into the weekend. Daily lows upper 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

51 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, rain showers daily starting Tuesday night, continuing into next week. Daily lows around 50,  40s, daily highs around 60. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Former German Chancellor Angel Merkel, in an interview with the Hungarian online news firm “Partizan” blamed Poland and the Baltic states for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Her argument is that Poland’s and the Baltic states breaking of diplomatic ties with Russia in 2021, and Poland’s non-support of the Minsk Agreements, pushed Russia to invade in 2022.

While the Minsk Agreements nominally called for withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, Merkel has said before that the real purpose was to give Ukraine time - with European support - to rearm, and asserted that if done properly, Russia would not have attacked. 

Andrej Babis and ANO (“Yes”) won 34.5% of the vote and 80 seats into h 200 member parliament. “Together” received 23.4% and “STAN” 11.2%. The Pirate Party received 9%,  Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) 7.8%,  and “the Motorists” 6.8 %.

Turnout was just short of 69%.

Babis was to hold talks with Czech President Petr Pavel and begin to form a new government.

"I have promised Mr President to meet him and show him a solution that will be in line with Czech and European laws. We are helping Ukraine through (the) EU, and (the) EU is helping Ukraine... and this is the way... we will continue to help. … We will definitely lead talks with the SPD and the Motorists and seek a single-party government led by ANO.”

When asked if he would support Ukraine’s admission into the EU, he answered:  “[Ukraine} is not prepared for the EU. We have to end the war first.”

France’s Prime Minister Lecornu has stepped down, after announcing his cabinet. Lecornu became PM on September 6th. He was the 29th PM of the 5th Republic.

Ukraine will begin to receive the new “Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) from the US. This was first announced in late August, before the weapon had entered production. The weapon was just developed in the last 2 years, and is a low cost (about $500,000 per weapon), 250 nm, 35 foot CEP weapon with a 500 lb warhead. The original goal was to produce 1,000 per year, and the first 10 will be delivered to Ukraine this month, and a further 830 weapons by the end of the 2026 fiscal year. Ukraine is scheduled to eventually receive 3,550 ERAMs.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv City but there were no changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues north of the Oskil River just inside the Ukrainian border; the Russian MinDef claims that Russian forces have taken control of the town of Odradne, about 8 miles north of the Oskil River, about 2 miles inside Ukraine. Odradne is a small farming village of perhaps 20 - 25 houses.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the north end of Kupyansk, and to the west of the city, but there does not appear to be any change in lines in and around the city.

Further south, the only changes over the past several days are just west of the Zherebets River, where Ukrainian forces appear to have made marginal gains just north of Yampil, pushing eastward along the rail line.

Elsewhere in the general area, Reporting now confirms that Russian forces took Shandryholove last week, and have also moved a bit further south and are now just north and north-east of Dobrysheve.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north of Bakhmut, focused on Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines over the last several days. However, blogger reports form several pro-Ukrainian sources have adjusted their maps of the situation around Siversk suggesting that Russian forces are in clear control of terrain immediately north of the city, less than 2 miles to the east of the city, and less than a mile to the south-east of the city.

Fighting continues west and south-west of Chasiv car, and between Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines in this area or in the terrain immediately west of Toretsk.

North and north-east of Pokrovsk fighting continues around the August salient; on the east side imagery confirmed that Russian forces had pushed into the south side of the town of Volodymyrivka. At the same time, Ukrainian forces appear to have been stopped east of Bilytske, though there is one report claiming marginal Ukrainian gains in this area. Nevertheless, it appears that the Russians have strengthened the base of their salient. Meanwhile, at the north end of the salient Russian sources claim that Russian forces pushed north and have taken control of Zolotyi Kolodiaz.

In and around Pokrovsk there are multiple claims of small gains but there were no confirmed changes to the front line around the city. Reporting does note continued recon probes and drone and artillery strikes on Ukrainian GLOCs into the Pokrovsk area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along much of the line of contact south of the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Ukrainian General Staff reporting of troops in contact outside Verbove (about 20 miles north-east of Hulyaipole), supports the assessment that that town is now controlled by Russian forces.

Fighting was again noted just up river from Kherson, around the Antonovskiy Bridge, but again, no details are provided.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of October 5th - October 6th, Russian forces launched 116 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 83 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Sumy oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

At least 2 civilians were killed and 13 were injured.

During t nheight go October 5th - 6th, Ukrainian drones struck a military facility in Dzerzhnzk, Nizhniy Novgorod, and an oil facility in Feodosia, Crimea, and a power substation near Belgord.

During the night of October 4th - October 5th, Russian forces launched 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 42 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 9 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 496 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 1 Kinzhal missile, 22 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 6 Kalibr cruise missiles, and 439 drones.

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Lviv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

At least 5 civilians were killed and 18 injured.

During the night of October 3rd - October 4th, Russian forces launched 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 109 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 73 Iskander cruise missiles.  Note that again, all the ballistic missiles reached their targets.

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. 

At least 1 civilian was killed and 30 were injured.

Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil refineries during the night of the October 3rd-4th, hitting the Kirishinefteorgsintez Oil Refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast. Fires were reported in and near the refinery, but there is no independent damage assessment.

During the night of October 2nd-October 3rd, Russian forces launched 7 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 21 x Iskander cruise missiles, 7 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles  and 381 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 12 Iskander cruise missiles, 5 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 303 Shahed drones. Note, per initial reports, all 7 ballistic missiles reached their targets.

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in  Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava and Sumy oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

At least 6 civilians were injured.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct3 Oct6

Brent      94.71      66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 64.35 65.23

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 60.68 61.47

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.38 3.37

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.16 5.17

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 82.05 83.18

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.28 41.29

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 59.99 60.37

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 NA 66.44*

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 60.76 61.41

*The price for ESPO oil seems to have fallen out of reporting, but there was one report that it was being selling in Shandong at $1.70  above Dubai. That is the price noted above.

Thoughts

It may be that the front is in some sort of stalemate, but I think it is the adjustment to the weather. There has been on and off rains for the last week or so, and pictures taken at ground level have show a good deal of mud. Obviously, this will drive vehicles off of fields and onto roads where they will be more easily targeted. So, what was harder, will now get harder. Given the expanded Russian drone use in the past several months, particularly the longer range (in some cases over 30 miles) fiber optic drones, this will negatively impact Ukrainian resupply efforts. But Russian movements will still be slow; there won’t be any “breakthroughs,” though there is always the possibility of gaps in the line due to Ukrainian manpower shortages.

Russian strikes on Ukrainian power grid elements will expand and become once again the major focus. The ability of Russian ballistic missiles to penetrate Patriot defenses will be a problem as the larger elements of the power grid come under attack.

v/r pete