OCTOBER 8th, 2025

Politics - Poland will not extradite Nord Stream suspect

- Atlantic Monthly says Ukraine has the initiative

Combat Ops - Poor weather, marginal gains 

- Damage to power grid “significant”

Weather

The Autumn rains appear to have arrived. This will complicate logistics, and also reduce drone performance and degrade sensors.

Kharkiv

61 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Cloudy all week, showers possible daily through next Monday. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

64 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy through the weekend, rain showers possible daily through the weekend. Daily lows upper 50s, daily highs in the low 60s.  Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

53 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, rain showers daily through the weekend and into next week. Daily lows upper 40s, daily highs mid 50s. Winds north-easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

The Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian Legislature) adopted a resolution yesterday affirming that holding elections during martial law is impossible.

Poland’s PM Tusk commented that it is not in Poland’s interests to extradite to Germany a man accused of attacking the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022

Tusk noted that the problem with the pipelines was not their destruction, but that they were built.

The pipelines were “against the vital interests not only of our countries, but of all of Europe.”

"My role is not to investigate why a Ukrainian citizen came to Poland again, despite knowing there was a European arrest warrant issued against him, but our position has not changed. It is certainly not in Poland's interest to charge or hand over this citizen to another state. The decision will be made by the court."

A Polish court has ruled that the man, who has not been publicly named (he is referred to as Volodymyr Z. And is believed to be Volodymyr Zhuravlov), will be held for 40 days and then released.

The Atlantic Monthly is reporting that Ukraine’s strategy of a war of attrition is showing unexpected positive results, that Ukraine now has the initiative on the battlefield, and they have now created the conditions for victory in the long term.

The author, Robert F Worth, credits the success to the better use of drones, precision artillery, better planning and better leadership, and regular rotation of units, and notes that Russian losses have reached a level that cannot be sustained in the long term.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continued along the perimeter of the would-be Russian buffer north of Sumy but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting was reported in the vicinity of Hlyboke and Vovchansk, and Russian sources claimed martial gains, but there were no confirmed changes to the line of contact.

Further east, along the border north of the Oskil River, fighting was reported in 6 different towns but there were no changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There are Russian reports of some minor gains inside Kupyansk and in the immediate area but these have not been confirmed. 

Fighting was also reported along most of the line of contact south to the Donets River, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, imagery confirmed Russian gains just south-east of Siversk, as Russian forces pushed further up the rail line between Vyimka and Siversk, have advanced on both sides of the reservoir south-east of the city and now appear to be within a mile or so of the south-east edge of the city.

Due south of Siversk Russian forces also appear to have full control of the town of Fedorivka.

Fighting continues west of Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Between Toretsk and Kostiantinivka, imagery confirmed Russian forces had made some gains in the area of Ivanopillia. And there were unconfirmed gains around the Kleban Byk Reservoir.

West of Toretsk and north-east of Pokrovsk, fighting continues along the perimeter of the August salient, with fighting reported in 7 different towns, but there was no change in the front line in this area.

In the Pokrovsk area, imagery confirmed Russian gains just east of Myrnohradm and there were unconfirmed claims of small Russian gains on south edge of Pokrovsk. 

Further to the south and south-west, between Pokrovsk and the Vovcha River, both Russian and Ukrainian forces had small gains around Muravka (west of Pokrovsk, along the Solane River.)

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Just south of the Vovcha River, imagery confirmed Russian gains around Ivanivka, Russians apparently clearing the area around the town, and east of the Vovcha River, of Ukrainian elements.

Further south, imagery confirmed earlier reporting that Ukrainian forces have retaken Sichneve, while further south Russian reporting claims that Russian forces have taken Novohryhorivka, a small town (perhaps 100 homes) about 5 miles west of Temyrivka, and about 12 miles north-east of Hulyaipole.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of October 7th - October 8th, Russian forces launched 183 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 154 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kryvyi Rih, Kyiv, Sumy  oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports note 4 killed and 2 wounded civilians.

Ukraine’s Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk commented that Russian strikes have caused “significant” damage to Ukraine’s gas production capacity and wants to increase Ukrainian imports of natural gas by 30%.

Hennadiy Ryabtsev, the director of the Ukrainian Psychea Scientific-Technical Center, suggests that Russian energy targeting has shifted to regional electric power companies that have less funding, face long and difficult repair efforts and hence will have a greater impact on nation power availability as winter approaches.

Ukrainian forces reported that their drones struck the Tyumen Oil Refinery (1100 miles east of Moscow) during the night of October 6th-7th. A Russian opposition news firm reported two drones struck the refinery and caused a fire. The extent of damage is unknown.

During the night of October 6th - October 7th, Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 152 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 88 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy  Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and pwoer grid damage was reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltavea nd Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 8 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports note 2 killed and 5 wounded civilians.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct7 Oct8

Brent      94.71      66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 65.36 66.18

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 61.63 62.48

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.47 3.44

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.10 5.06

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 81.93 81.28

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.35 41.48

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.33 61.15

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 67.29 66.74

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.97 61.91

Thoughts

The fighting has slowed down to a very hard grind. There are several possible explanations but, while this is speculative, they are all probably partly true:

The weather has turned a bit cool and their is rain and more rain… 

• Unprepared roads will be very difficult to travel, slowing logistics support and troop movement 
• Leaves falling off of trees has already been commented on multiple times by troops, making working toward the front line slower and more dangerous
• Both sides appear to be rotating out troops
• There is speculation that Russia (and perhaps Ukraine in a more limited sense) are preparing for a new offensive, and are therefore marshaling troops and not committing them to the front lines

At the same time, the rain and lousy weather reduces the effectiveness of the drones - both recon and strike drones, making movement less risky in some cases. Note also that some of the drones on both sides use IR imagers to find enemy. Cooler weather will make contrast greater and as the trees drop their leaves, it will be more difficult to hide from IR - in most cases. On the other hand, rain and fog degrade IR sensors. At the same time, Ukrainian forces have already noted that many more Russian soldiers are now equipped with IR masking blankets and clothing and that it is more difficult to find Russian soldiers using IR imagers.

As for the suggestion that Ukraine has captured the strategic initiative, perhaps, though it is difficult to see from where I sit. 

v/r pete