OCTOBER 10th, 2025

Politics - Zelenskyy on the attacks on the Power Grid 

Combat Ops - Russian giant in Kupyansk

- Ukrainian preparations for another Kursk attack?

Weather

Kharkiv

57 and light rain. Cloudy all week, showers possible Sunday night. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

57 with light rain, gusting to 20. Cloudy into next week, rain showers possible daily through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 40s to 50, daily highs in the upper 50s.  Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

53 and cloudy. Showers tonight, cloudy all week, rain showers Sunday night and again on Tuesday. Daily lows upper 40s, daily highs mid 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics 

President Zelenskyy commented that strikes earlier in October destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s natural gas production capacity (no forecast repair date) and Ukraine will need to buy 4.4 billion cubic meters (BCM) of natural gas over the next 6 months. Industrial prices of natural gas are on the order of 0.64 euros ($0.75) per cubic meter (but prices fluctuate); the cost will be on the order of 2 billion Euro ($2.3 billion).

Ukraine has Europe’s largest underground natural gas storage facility, with a capacity of 31 BCM, but it currently has only 13 BCM in it, of which 4.7 BCM are identified as “strategic reserves” and are not readily tapped.

Although unconfirmed, reportedly Russian targeting has now shifted to include more transformers and distribution elements of the power grid, in addition to power generation assts.

My understanding is that transformers (which step up or step down power - to a higher or lower voltage) are expensive and last a very long time (no moving parts) and as a result few power grids keep large numbers of spare transformers. The result is that when more than a few are taken off line, there can be significant delays in replacing the down transformer.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

North of Sumy City the see-saw fight continues with reliable reporting suggesting that Ukrainian forces have taken control of Andriivka (on the west end of the would-be buffer zone), and Russian forces have taken Varachyne (4 miles east of Andriivlka). One observer noted that the very high use rate of Ukrainian drones in the Sumy area has been key to Ukrainian forces holding their terrain from the Russian assault. There is no reporting suggesting actual drone use rate, so it is hard to otherwise judge, but anecdotal reporting supports this.

Russian reporting claims that Ukrainian forces have begun to move into the border region near Tetkino - north-west of Sumy city, in preparation for another attack into Russian territory; there are no non-Russian reports to support this.

North of Kharkiv, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, nor were there any changes noted along the border, north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Imagery confirmed (and Ukrainian reporting noted) that Russian forces had made ground in central Kupyansk; Ukrainian reporting confirmed what the imagery showed: Russian forces have advanced at least as far south as the intersection of the P79 and P07 roadways, while also pushing deeper into Myrove. This would mean that the Ukrainian brigade that had been holding the pocket northwest of the city-center has either withdrawn (probable) or been overrun. Russian forces now control the roadway west of the main bridge into eastern Kupyansk, and the main supply route into the pocket east of the river controlled by Ukraine - about 10 miles north to south and 7 miles east to west.

Russian strikes have already dropped all the bridges except the one for the P07/H26 roadway through central Kupyansk. The Ukrainians have been setting up pontoon bridges across the Oskil River, and the Russians keep striking them. Meanwhile, Russian recon elements continue to probe deeper into the city, with Ukrainian reports of these elements operating in the Ukrainian rear in the southern section of the city. 

Further south, Ukrainian forces had confirmed gains around Zarichne and possibly gained ground near Yampil.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, fighting continues around Siversk, but there are no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues west, south-west and south of Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

West of Toretsk, there are reports of Russian gains around the Kleban Byk Reservoir and just east of the Reservoir, clearing the last Ukrainian elements south of the reservoir, but these reports have not been confirmed.

North-east of Pokrovsk, between the August salient and the Russian advance around the T0504 roadway, Russian forces continue efforts to close the would-be Ukrainian salient that runs from the Pankivka area (10 miles north-east of Pokrovsk) to the town of Torske (about 18 miles north-east of Pokrovsk), roughly following the line of the Kezenyi Torets River. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed into Volodymyrivka - a mile north-east of Pankivka.

At the same time, Russian forces held the west side of the salient against Ukrainian efforts to drive into the base of the salient. There are reports of Russian gains at the north end of the salient but these have not been confirmed.

Imagery confirmed Russian gains just south of Pokrovsk, and probes continue into the southern edge of the city.

West and south-west of Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed some Russian gains north and north-west of Udachne. Fighting continues south of that area to the Vovcha river, but there were no changes in the front lines in this area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces remain in control of Oleksiivka (north of Verbove) and probably made some gains just north of that town in the area of Sosnivka.

Fighting was reported across the south, from the Hulyaipole area to the Dnepr, and also just up river from Kherson near the Antonovskiy bridge, but there were no changes in the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of October 9th - October 10th, Russian forces launched 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 14 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 12 x Iskander cruise missiles, 4 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 465 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile, 4 Iskander ballistic missiles, 9 Iskander cruise missiles, 1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 405 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Multiple power outages were reported in several oblasts: Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia; much of Kyiv was also left without water; the mayor's office reported water was expected to be restored to everyone by the end of the day.

RuAF tacair struck at least 1 Ukrainian towns, using long range glide bombs to strike deep into Dnipropetrovsk.

Preliminary reports indicate at least 1 civilian killed and at least 20 wounded.

Ukrainian drones struck the Korobkovsky Natural Gas Processing Plant in Kotovo, (about 100 miles north-north-east of Volgograd), on the 8th, but there is no independent damage report yet.

During the night of October 8th - October 9th, Russian forces launched 112 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 87 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts; with strikes focusing on the power grid, and left 30,000 homes temporarily without power.

Ukraine Rail reprots that Russian drones strikes on rail lines has increased. 

There were no reports on civilian casualties.

During the night of October 7th - October 8th, Russian forces launched 183 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 154 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kryvyi Rih, Kyiv, and Sumy oblasts. 

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports note 4 killed and 2 wounded civilians.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   July8 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Oct10

Brent      94.71    70.44 66.90 67.03 66.18 63.81

WTI     92.10    68.65 64.29 63.26 62.48 60.08

NG       3.97         3.35 3.06 3.12 3.44 3.18

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.18 5.22 5.06 5.04

Ruble     85          78.47 79.74 84.03 81.28 81.60

Hryvnia 28.6 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.65

Urals 91.66 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.15 60.81

ESPO 94.52 71.58 68.63 68.32 66.74 67.02

Sokol 99.31 64.38 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.95

Thoughts

The reporting on the ground sounds dire, but it’s important to remember that the Russian forces simply do not move quickly. Assuming there has not been a collapse in available Ukrainian manpower, Ukrainian forces should be able to respond both at Kupyansk and north-east of Pokrovsk and in neither case will this turn into some sort of rout.

Nevertheless, the Russian gains are of note; I don’t expect a precipitous loss of Kupyansk or any other city, but the Russians continue to grind down Ukrainian units and keep moving slowly forward.

Once again there is the issue of how this war has evolved around fixed defensive positions: when present, forces advance very slowly, if at all. Further, the Russians, after their losses in 2022, learned their lesson and have steadily built defenses as they have advanced. Ukraine on the other hand, has been unwilling to cede terrain or give the appearance of ceding terrain, as would be necessary if they built improved defenses far enough behind their lines that they could finish them before the Russians pushed them back - and then fall back into the defenses and cede “No mans land” to Russian forces. But the Ukrainian policy of ceding no ground prevents this approach.

v/r pete