September 4th, 2025

Politics  - Comments by Trump, Trump, Zelenskyy et al - video teleconference 

- Zelenskkyy talks about the Korean model

 

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Drone strikes, more power outages

 

Weather

Kharkiv

70 and sunny. Partly cloudy through the weekend.  week. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

79 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny all week, daily lows around 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

79 and sunny. Mostly sunny weather all week. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics 

President Trump commenting to reporters who asked about the negotiations:

“I have no message to President Putin. He knows where I stand, and he’ll make a decision one way or the other. Whatever his decision is, we’ll either be happy about it or unhappy. And if we’re unhappy about it, you’ll see things happen.”

Trump also commented on US troop strength in Poland:

“We’ll put more there if they want. We’re with Poland all the way, and we’ll help Poland protect itself. Those relations for me, for Poland, for Poles, are very important.”

President Trump, President Zelenskyy and other NATO and EU leaders began a video conference around 0930 EDT.

President Zelenskyy, in an interview with “Le Point,” referenced Korea as as scenario that might be possible.

"Are you asking me whether such a scenario could occur in Ukraine? My answer is that anything is possible. It should be noted that South Korea has a major ally: the United States of America, which will not allow North Korea to capture it. So everything is relative: the South Koreans are still taking risks."

"To be frank, Ukraine is determined to obtain reliable security guarantees, such as the Patriot systems that South Korea has. But the comparison with South Korea has its limitations: the population of North Korea is just over 20 million, while the population of Russia is over 140 million. These threats cannot be compared. The threats from Russia are five, six, or even ten times greater.”

"An identical reproduction of the South Korean model is unlikely to suit Ukraine in terms of security. However, its economic model is a good example."

President Macron of France offered thoughts on plans for a security guarantee for Ukraine, following a peace agreement.  

"Thanks to the input prepared, documented and confirmed this afternoon at the level of defense ministers in strict secrecy, we can now say: this work is completed and ready for political approval.”

“The Coalition of the Willing” said after meeting in August that they are willing to place security forces in Ukraine after a ceasefire.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy and it appears that Ukrainian forces pushed back into terrain north of Andriivka, and west of Varachyne, but this has not been confirmed.

North of Kharkiv fighting continues, with the Ukrainian General Staff UGS) noting engagements near Vovchansk and Krasne Pershe, but there were no confirmed or even claimed gains of terrain by either side. 

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

In the fighting for Kupyansk, Russian sources claim Russian forces made small (marginal) gains into the center of the town.

This now appears to have settled into the standard pattern of city fighting: Russian forces move forward very slowly, in very small teams, concentrations of Ukrainian troops are sited and attacked, and when and if destroyed, the Russian slowly move forward. Ukrainian Troops dig in, make themselves very hard targets, and force the Russians to dig them out. The city of Kupyansk is already badly beaten up, but this process will reduce most of it to rubble, with a few harder buildings left standing, though uninhabitable.

That said, Russian forces have a hold on the a slice of the north-west part of the city; the rest of the activity in Kupyansk consists of multiple, small (2-4 men) recon teams moving into and then withdrawing from the city. The attack on Kupyansk itself has begun but it is a long way from being over.

In addition, there continues to be mixed reporting as to whether the Russians control Myrove (Moskovka), just west of Kupyansk; my best guess at this point is that they do. Russian flags have been reported at several sites in that town, which doesn’t mean the Ukrainians couldn’t have moved back in, but there is no evidence right now that they have.

Further south, Russian forces continue to push to the south and south-west from the area just west of Koldazi, and reporting suggests (again, not confirmed) that some elements of Russian forces have entered Shandryholove, and that they are closing on Novoselivka. In addition, the UGS reported an engagement about a mile-and-a-half north of Drobysheve, supporting the assessment that the Russian forces are gaining ground as they push south-west.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north and east of Siversk but there were no confirmed changes to the line of contact.

West of Bakhmut, Russian forces just north of Chasiv Yar have pushed westward, and now occupy terrain south and south-west of Maiske. This is all open farmland and the Russian forces appear to have reached a north-south tree-line about a mile-and-a-half east of Virolyubivka (a town of about 600 before the war).

Fighting continues in the Torestk pocket but there were no confirmed changes.

In Pokrovsk, fighting continues in the south-west quarter of the city as Russian forces try to push into the city center from their jump-off position in Pershe Travnya (the village on the south-west edge of the city), pushing up Shevchenko street. How far they have reached is not clear, but there is conflicting reporting: there are claims that Russian recon elements are “near” the central train station, and also claims that there are no more than a handful of small recon teams inside the city.

There is again, little change to note in the “August salient” north-east of Pokrovsk and the Russians seem to have stabilized that line, though there are reports of fighting along virtually the entire line of contact, with 18 towns named in UGS reports - not to include Pokrivsk.

Further to the south-west, just north of the Vovcha River, there are no changes, and Ukrainian forces continue to hold the small town of Filiia.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha, reporting suggests Russian forces have pushed through Zelenyi Hai and are pressing westward, presumably to close up the terrain bounded by the Vovcha River (as an immediate goal). The terrain is all open farmland with the town of Andriivka Kletsove to the south-west and two small forests due west from Zelenyi Hai.

Further south, just south of Oleksandrohrad, Russian forces have pushed west and are closing on Novoselivka and Sosnivka.

Russian forces were active along the entire line further south but there were no other claims of ground gained, with the possible exception of just south of Orikhiv, with one of the pro-Ukrainian sites now showing Russian gains into Ukrainian held territory, supporting earlier assessments that Russian forces are approaching Novodanylivka - the town just south of Orikhiv.

Ukrainian sources are also suggesting that Russian forces have pushed north from Plavni, along the Dnepr River, and now control the Prymorske railroad station, though this is, again, unconfirmed.

Air Operations

During the night of September 3rd-September 4th, Russian forces launched 112 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 84 Shahed drones; the power grid was the key target in the strikes.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnitsky, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; at least 40,000 homes were left without power in Kharkiv Oblast. Unusually, a repair estimate was given, with a worst case of “at least a week” for return of power.

In andiron, all of Sumy City and parts of Sumy Oblast had power outages in the past 24 hours due to strikes. It isn’t clear how many still have no power.

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian towns.

At least 13 civilians killed, and 35 wounded.

During the night of September 2nd-September 3rd, Russian forces launched 16 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 8 x Kh-101 cruise missiles and 502 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, 7 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 430 Shahed drones. Energy infrastructure was again targeted.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnitsky, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Rivne,  Sumy, Zaporozhzhia oblasts; 

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian towns.

At least 11 civilians killed, and 17 wounded.

The report several days ago of a ship, just upriver from the mouth of the Danube, being damaged after striking an object in the water, has been clarified; it was not a mine, it was, a Russian USV (surface drone).

This is consistent with the attack on the Ukrainian ship Simferopol on August 28th, which was also a Russian USV attack.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep3 Sep4

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 68.06 66.80

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 64.43 63.23

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 3.11 3.10

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.27 5.17

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 80.99 81.66

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.37 41.32

Urals 91.66 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 62.21 60.88

ESPO 94.52 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 71.34 69.80

Sokol 99.31 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 65.32 63.39

German Gref, CEO of Sberbank (1/3rd of all deposits in Russia, assets of $626 billion), commented yesterday that the Russian economy moved into “technical stagnation” in the 2nd quarter of 2025.

"The second quarter can, in fact, be considered technical stagnation. July and August show quite clear symptoms indicating that we are approaching zero marks.”

"It is important to move out of this period of controlled cooling of the economy so that it does not turn into stagnation, because reviving the economy will be much more difficult than cooling it down.”

"At current inflation levels, the rate that could allow us to hope for an economic revival is 12% or lower. So once we reach those levels, most likely we will see the economy revive.”

Thoughts

The reference to Korea and the 72 year old armistice is of note; though President Zelenskyy’s comments on the differences with Korea may be less important than the similarities, but consider first some raw numbers: 

• the war lasted 37 months (43 months in Ukraine)
• A very long “backstory” to the war that goes back decades
• Huge casualties (these numbers can vary widely depending on the source):
• South Korea 70,000+ KIA (mil)
• US 33,000 KIA 
• S Korean Civilians 1+ million dead
• N Korean army - 300,000 - 400,000 KIA
• Chinese Army - 400,000+ KIA
• North Korean Civilians 1.5+ million dead

Note that this all took place in a “battlefield” that covered much, but not all of the Korean Peninsula, so an area of less than 86,000 square miles (the entire peninsula), so of the same magnitude as eastern Ukraine.

It also involved constant awareness of the issue of nuclear weapons - both US and Soviet. And, in fact, ended following President Eisenhower’s threat to use nuclear weapons.

And there was no formal alliance between the US and the ROK until after the war.

It is also worth noting that the front line of June 1951 is very close to the final DMZ - hundreds of thousands died over the following 2 years but little changed. 

v/r pete