December 1st, 2025
Politics - Comments about the negations, but nothing definitive
Combat Ops - Grind continues, little change on the ground
- Substantial drone and missile strikes over the weekend, power outages
Weather
Cloudy weather continues, temperatures still not cold enough to freeze the fields. Thick fog has been reported in the Pokrovsk area.
Kharkiv
37 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
45 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
37 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows will be in the mid 30s, daily highs in the high 30s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.
Politics
President Zelenskyy talked with UK PM Starmer and Ambassador Witkoff:
Zelenskyy comments to the press followed.
"Together with Emmanuel Macron - Keir Starmer was also in touch - we have just spoken with Rustem Umerov and Steve Witkoff following the talks in Florida. We agreed to discuss more details in person - the teams will agree on schedules for possible further contacts.”
"Frankly, the territorial issue is the most difficult. The issue of funding for recovery, in my view, without the involvement of our European partners, is neither simple nor easy, because the money is in Europe. I do not think this is entirely fair. And the issue of security guarantees, which is very important, specifically from the United States of America and specifically from Europe. So I would say these are the three main topics, the main components and at the same time the triggers. And we need to be very cautious here.”
Pres. Macron (France) and Pres. Zelenskyy spoke. Comments by Macron:
"Today's meeting has allowed us to advance the consultation between all Europeans and to reiterate everyone's commitment to a just and lasting peace…security guarantees cannot be negotiated without the Ukrainians and the Europeans."
"The United States of America, Ukrainians, and all Europeans want peace. Russia must end its aggression.”
"Ukraine is the only one that can discuss territories, they are its own.”
"Peace must become truly reliable. The war must end as soon as possible.”
EU ForPol Chief Kallas:
"I fear that all the pressure will be put on the weaker side, because Ukraine's surrender is the easiest way to end this war.”
Ambassador Witkoff will go to Moscow and meet with President Putin, tentatively on December 2nd.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting was reported in both border areas (north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv), but there were no significant changes in the front lines. Imagery did confirm at least one Russian recon probe into southern Vovchansk.
Fighting was reported along the perimeter of the Russian occupied terrain just north of the Oskil River, near the Russia-Ukraine border, but there were no significant changes to the front lines.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk; the situation remains quite confused, with Russian forces continuing to assert that they have control of much of the city and Ukrainian forces asserting pretty much the same thing. Trying to parse some sort of accuracy out of the various claims leaves this: the fighting is very hard, small Ukrainian and Russian elements are again mixed up in a sort of checker-board arrangement, and both sides are holding on like death to a dead mule. Drone and artillery support will be important, but this fight looks to go to the side that will commit the most men.
Russian forces continue to hold a small Ukrainian element (1 battalion perhaps) in a small pocket (about 2 miles across and a mile north to south) centered on the small village of Nova Kruhlyakivka, about 5 miles north of Borova, The pocket is just east of the P79 roadway (the road that parallels the Oskil river (on the east side of the river in this area)). Again, this is all manicured farmland, and the village has perhaps 25 - 30 houses, all strung out on a single street.
Further south, fighting continues around Lyman and near the south end of the Nitrius river; reporting suggests Russian recon probes into Lyman but there has been no change to the front lines.
BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK
North of Bakhmut fighting continues on the south, east and north-east edges of Siversk, as well as to the north-west of Siversk, just north of the T0513 roadway that runs westward out of Siversk. But there are no confirmed changes in the front line, or in Russian holdings in Siversk, nor any clear indication that Ukrainian forces can no longer run supplies into Siversk along the T0513 GLOC.
South-west of Bakhmut, north-west of Toretsk, Russian forces continue to probe into Kostiantinivka from the south-east and there are unconfirmed reports that Russian probes have reached the rail yard which is crossed by the T0504 roadway. If so, that is of note, and will be watched.
There are indications that Russian forces now have a secure hold on both the east and west end of the Kleban Byk reservoir, which would isolate any Ukrainian elements remaining just south of the reservoir.
North of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces pushed back into Nove Shakhove and claim to now control that town and Ivanivka (immediately south-west of Nove Shakhove). This puts pressure on the Russian forces that are trying to penetrate the Pokrovsk Pocket from the north, as well as Russian forces in Rodynske that are trying to keep the pocket closed. At the same time there are claims that Ukrainian forces have pushed into Rodynske and have regained control of part of that town as well.
In Pokrovsk itself, and in the pocket centered on Myrnohrad, there are a series of conflicting reports again suggesting a patchwork arrangement of Ukrainian and Russian forces. But in this case the Russians seem to have committed more forces; my count places 24 Russian brigades or regiments in Pokrovsk, around Myrnohrad, and in southern Rodynske. A fair number of those forces are facing north, against Ukrainian forces, but the preponderance of force in the city, and in the pocket, is Russian.
That said, Russian forces, contrary to some reporting, appear willing to use artillery and drones (and an occasional 500KG bomb) to work their way into those areas held by Ukrainian forces, keeping Russian casualties lower, even if it takes longer.
Further south and south-west of Pokrovsk, fighting continues around and in Novopavlivka, but there does not appear to have been a change in the front lines in that area. Just to the south-east, north of Dachne and east of Filiia, Russian forces continue to gradually straighten their lines and seize open farmland.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
From the Vovcha River southward Russian forces remain on the offensive. There were no confirmed gains (again, in large art due to the weather), but reports suggest Russian forces north of Hulyaipole continue to work westward to the Haichur River and small elements appear to have reached the town of Varvarivka. East of Hulyaipole Russian forces continue to grind forward, trying to clean out small pockets of Ukrainian forces; Russian probes continue into Hulyaipole itself.
Fighting also continues along the front line westward to the Dnepr River, There were no significant changes and again Ukrainian elements continue to hold onto positions as Russian forces push up on either side of them, leaving a series of small salients along the line west of Orikhiv. Assisting in this, reporting suggesting that fog has been very dense over the past several days.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of November 30-December 1st, Russian forces launched at least 89 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 63 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv and Odessa oblasts. Targets included the power grid; there were power blackouts in Kyiv, and a partial blackout in Odessa.
At least 4 civilians were killed and 40 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes.
RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.
From the night of November 25th-November 29th Russian forces launched at least 7 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 27 cruise missiles of various types and 932 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 4 Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile, 14 various cruise missies, and 817 drones.
Damage was reported across virtually all of Ukraine, with multiple blackouts in major cities. At one point 400,000 homes in the Kyiv area were without power
Casualties included at least 3 killed and 52 wounded.
Some data on Ukrainian air and air defense activity in November:
Shot down or defeated 9,707 targets (compared to 11,269 in October):
- 26 x Ballistic missiles
- 93 cruise missiles
- 9,588 drones of various types
UAF flew 368 total sorties, to include 200 air defense (anti drone), and 70 strike and air support missions.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Nov26 Dec1
Brent 94.71 66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.27 63.38
WTI 92.10 64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 57.25 59.54
NG 3.97 3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.60 4.82
Wheat 8.52 5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.39 5.36
Ruble 85 79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 78.58 77.72
Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.28 42.33
Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 53.78 54.42
ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 59.22 56.88
Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.30 60.43
Thoughts
The negotiations grind on, the fighting grinds on, and Europe looks and sounds less than competent. The comments by President Macron seem to be blindingly obvious, but don’t seem to advance the ball an inch down the field.
Ditto for Starmer, Merz, von der Leyen and Kallas.
Some observers suggest that Ukraine’s small successes show Russia’s victory isn’t given and Ukraine can still win. Yet Russia’s economy is not breaking. Still we are told Ukraine still can win, but no one says how.
A few months ago I sat down with one of my real smart Army pals and we talked about what Ukraine would need to militarily defeat Russia, particularly in light of Russia’s very slow, risk averse way of war, as well as their new “combined arms” concept that integrates drones, aircraft with stand-off weapons, 4th generation air defense assets, very good electronic warfare and cyber warfare, and a grinding artillery and infantry force. To defeat the Russians the Ukrainians have to develop a force that can defeat that.
I won’t go into the details, but a minimum force would be on the order of 300,000 and a combat support force of at least 200,000. That’s one planner’s take on the problem.
This is In Addition To the current army, who are needed to hold the line.
And this force would require advanced unit training for brigades and divisions. And so, the following - best - time line: training begins March of 2026. Force fully trained and ready: January 2027. The attack starts when the ground hardens - March or April 2027 - best case. Could Ukraine last that long?
And note, Russia get’s a “vote.” They could fully mobilize. They could invite in a Korean or Chinese army. They could use nuclear weapons…
In the middle of 2022, as Russia struggled to transition to a new war plan, one of attrition, I commented that “If Russia solves its manpower problem, they’ll win this war.” By the end of 2022 it seemed that they had, even as Ukraine was pushing them back. It was the high tide of the war for Ukraine. A friend commented Ukraine needs to “sue for peace right now. After this, it will get worse.”
It has. Three years later it seems Europe and Ukraine are out of ideas, and Ukraine is slowly but surely running out of manpower; Ukraine is running out of time.
v/r pete
