December 9th, 2025

Politics - Zelenskyy: 20 point proposal to Trump tonight 

- Zelenskyy: No Legal or Moral authority to cede land

Combat Ops - Russian gains near Pokrovsk

Weather

Cloudy weather and thick fog continues to be reported across much of Ukraine and much of the terrain remains covered in mud. Rain and snow-to-rain conditions over much of the front, with temperatures in the upper 30s into the weekend but much colder next week - ground should begin to freeze. 

Kharkiv

32 and cloudy. Snow tonight and tomorrow, but rain Thursday and into Friday morning, then more mostly cloudy weather. Temperatures at or slightly above freezing through Friday night, then colder, with daily highs for the following week in the mid 20s, lows near 20. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

35 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, rain on Wednesday and again on Friday. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the low 40s through Saturday, then colder, with highs around freezing. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

34 and rain, gusting over 30. Cloudy tomorrow, then rain Thursday nd Friday, but then snow Sunday and Monday. Daily lows through Friday in the upper 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. After Saturday morning daily highs will be in the upper 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy commented that a revised, 20 point peace proposal is being prepared and will be presented to President Trump in the next day or two (reportedly to be sent tonight):

"We are interested in real peace and are constantly in touch with America. And as the partners in the negotiating teams rightly note, it all depends on whether Russia is ready to take effective steps to stop the bloodshed and prevent the war from flaring up again. In the near future, we will be ready to send the finalized documents to the United States.”

Zelenskyy also commented that neither he nor the Ukrainian government has legal authority or moral right to cede land to Russian in any peace deal.

Following his meeting with Zelenskyy yesterday, UK PM Stalmer commented that:

“The leaders all agreed that now is a critical moment and that we must continue to ramp up support to Ukraine and economic pressure on Putin to bring an end to this barbaric war.”

After his meetings in London and Brussels yesterday, Zelenskyy flew to Rome and met with Pope Leo XIV and then with PM Meloni.

The Vatican reported that Zelenskyy and the Pope had a “candid conversation” and the Pope expressed hope for a diplomatic end to the war.

President Trump commented yesterday that Ukraine needs to hold elections. President Zelenskyy responded saying:

“I am ready forever.”

The Netherlands announced that it will provide 700 million euros ($812 million) to Ukraine for weapon purchases in the first quarter of 2026.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy noted that Ukraine is $800 million short on planned funding to purchase more weapons from the US.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKLIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. Poor weather is being blamed for the lack of significant activity in the area.

North of Kharkiv imagery confirmed Russian recon probes continue into Ukrainian controlled terrain but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, nor were there any changes to the front lines along the border north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues inside Kupyansk. Imagery yesterday confirmed Ukrainian forces control a block in the center of Kupyansk, a piece of terrain about 200 x 400 yards with perhaps 30 houses on it. What is not clear is whether there is an unobstructed logistics line into the terrain; in all likelihood there is not; just as the Ukrainian forces keep interdicting Russian supplies going into the city, Russian forces will keep striking at logistics support for Ukrainian forces inside the city. As it now stands it does not appear that either side has committed the forces necessary to fully sweep the other force from the city, nor are they likely to while the fight continues for Pokrovske and Hulyaipole.

Further south, about 15 miles south-east of Borova, imagery confirmed Russian gains west of Novovodiane. This terrain is mostly manicured farmland but with several large patches of dense woods.

Further south, in the general area around Lyman, fighting was reported across the entire front but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues in an arc from north-west of Siversk, around to the east and south and south-west, with Russian forces on the north-east, east and south-west edges of the city. But there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

That said, one very conservative, pro-Ukrainian site is showing Russian forces having penetrated into the center of Siversk and have taken the train station in the center of the city.

West and south-west of Chasiv Yar - north-west of Toretsk - there continues to be a good deal of fighting and claims of Russian gains, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines. Russian forces do continue to conduct recon probes into Kostiiantinivka.

Further west, north of Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk pocket, imagery confirmed Russian gains in Rodynske,

In the fight for Pokrovsk itself and for the pocket and Myrnohrad, imagery confirmed multiple Russian gains inside Pokrovsk and just north-east of the city, inside Rivne. There were also Russian gains in and around southern Myrnohrad and overall reporting suggests that Ukrainian forces are slowly backing northward from southern Myrnohrad into central Myrnohrad.

South and south-west of Pokrovsk to the Vovcha river fighting continues along the length of the front line, but there were no confirmed changes.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces continue to attack the eastern and northern approaches to Hulyaipole but there were no confirmed changes to the front line around the city or to the north-west of that city, or along the south side of the Vovcha River.

Further west, in the area just south of Orikhiv, Russian sources claim that Russian forces have seized Novodanylivka, about 4 miles south of Orikhiv. Novodanylivka was a town of about 1,000 before the 2022 invasion. If this report is correct it would allow Russian forces to flank Ukrainian forces in Mala Tokmachka (just south-east of Orikhiv) and simplify the assault on Orikhiv.

Fighting was agin reported near the Antonovskyi bridge, but there are no details.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 8th-December 9th, Russian forces launched at least 110 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 84 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and temporary blackouts was reported in Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 civilian was killed and 3 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.

During the night of December 7th-December 8th, Russian forces launched at least 149 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 131 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and a temporary blackouts were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties include at least 2 civilians killed and 31 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 3 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Dec9

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 62.40

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 58.79

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 4.75

Wheat     8.52          5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.32

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 77.04

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 42.25

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 53.72

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 55.99

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 59.02

Thoughts

As noted yesterday, President Zelenskyy sees a significant difference between what he will accept and what the Trump peace proposal is suggesting, commenting that Washington must “make serious, I would say, radical changes to their papers.”

Presumably, that will be detailed in his 20 point counter-proposal.

When added to his comment about not having the legal or moral authority to cede land, there is clearly a serious gap between the minimum needed for the peace plan to be accepted by Moscow and what Zelenskyy and the EU leadership are willing to accept; specifically, the question of ceding of territory. 

This reduces to simply this: Kyiv, with the moral backing of EU leadership, will continue to resist ceding any territory, and therefore fight on. The question, of course, is whether that is enough.

The presumption is that Ukraine, with Europe’s help, can outlast Russia, that Russia will either economically quit before Europe does, or the Russian army will break  or the Russian government will be forced to end the war by an angry people. Russia suffered a serious economic crisis in 1998. Will the projected economic collapse be that much greater than 1998? Perhaps they are right. I hope they are right and this war will simply end, and Russian forces will simply go home. But, how do they know that?

On paper, Europe, with 3 times as many people and more than 10 times the GDP as Russia, should be able to sustain this war far longer than Russia. On top of that, there are the conventional forces of the EU nations: 1,600 tactical aircraft, 1,100,000 soldiers on active duty and another 2 million in reserve. Russia has perhaps 700 tactical aircraft and an army of perhaps 1,500,000 soldiers and a reserve force of about the same size (Russia’s numbers are in a state of flux). If push came to shove, couldn’t Europe just moves force into Ukraine and take up the fight? But the EU isn’t going to fight Russia, never mind the worry of nuclear weapons. 

Because the reality is different: France has had difficulty twice in the past 6 months trying to deploy a single heavy brigade from France to Romania. Germany has problems keeping its tanks combat ready, the UK has readiness issues across the army, the RAF and the navy, etc., etc., etc.

And across Europe efforts to increase ordnance production continue to lag demand, and continue to lag Russian weapons production. And there are the manpower issues in the Ukrainian army. 

In late fall 2022, after a series of battlefield successes, Ukraine had solid positions from which to negotiate, and Russia was reeling. Arguably Ukraine should have negotiated then. Three years later, after tremendous numbers of casualties suffered on  both sides, but proportionally far greater on Ukraine’s side, Ukraine, urged on by the EU, is choosing to fight on, with a war plan whose cornerstone is the idea that Russia will politically or economically collapse someday in the next year or two. This has the feel of Hope as a plan.

v/r pete