December 8th, 2025

Politics - European leadership meets in London

- No movement on frozen Russian assets 

 

Combat Ops - Pokrovsk has not yet fallen 

- Hulyaipole has not yet fallen

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, thick fog continues to be reported. Rain and snow-to-rain conditions, temperatures in the upper 30s means the ground will stay muddy and restrict off-road mobility.

Kharkiv

32 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Tomorrow cloudy and cold, below freezing all day, snow Wednesday, then warming into the upper 30s and rain showers Thursday and Friday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

34 and light rain, gusting over 20. Cloudy all week, rain on Wednesday. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

33 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tomorrow and tomorrow night, rain again Thursday and Friday mornings. Daily lows remain in the 30s, daily highs will push into the low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy met with several European heads of state at 10 Downing Street today. At the meeting were Zelenskyy, UK PM Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz. There was no official statement following he meeting. Zelenskyy and Starmer then meet privately. 

After that meeting, Zelenskyy flew to Brussels to meet with NATO SecGen Rutte, EC President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen. Zelenskyy will fly to Rome tomorrow for more meetings.

Following the meetings several individuals commented to the press.

President Macron:

"We all support Ukraine, we all support peace and peace talks to achieve a lasting, reliable peace. And I think we have many cards in our hands."

"It is a fact that Ukraine is putting up resistance in this war, and it is a fact that the Russian economy is starting to struggle, particularly following our latest sanctions and those imposed by the United States. The main issue now is to reconcile our common positions, those of Europe, Ukraine and the US, in order to conclude these peace talks and begin a new phase under the best possible conditions for Ukraine, for Europe and for our collective security.”

Chancellor Merz:

“Ukraine’s fate is Europe’s fate. We’re here to see how we can step up our efforts. No one should have any doubt: our support will not falter.”

At the same time, France is refusing to transfer to Ukraine an estimated 18 billion euros ($21 billion) of frozen Russian assets, despite pressure from the European Commission.

Belgium which has the largest amount of frozen Russian assets (185 billion euros ($215 billion)) is also hesitant about the release of these assets.

As for talks over the weekend, the following comments seem to sum up the current status of talks:

Zeelenskyy after talks with Ambassador Witkoff and My Kushner:

“The American representatives know the basic Ukrainian positions,” Zelenskyy added.

Ambassador Kellogg - a deal is “really, really close” … “The last 10 metres is always the hardest”

President Putin’s aide Ushakov:

“… territorial problems have been discussed…”

Washington must “make serious, I would say, radical changes to their papers” 

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continued north of Sumy City over the weekend but there wrecked no confirmed changes to the front lines. Reporting continues to reflect that poor weather (clouds, fog and mud (the ground hasn’t frozen) has slowed combat operations.

Fighting continued north of Kharkiv; unconfirmed reporting suggests some Russian gains in the terrain between the town of Starytsa and the Russian border (all west of Vovchansk about 6 miles), terrain that is a mix of farmland and multiple patches of forest.

Further east, in the border region north of the Oskil River, there were reports of engagements but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There are some claims of Russian gains just east of Kupyansk, and fighting continues along the entire front lines in this area, particularly inside Kupyansk; Ukrainian sources report an increased number of Russian drone strikes on the roadways - ground lines of communication (GLOCs) - leading into the area, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines over the past 4 or 5 days.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut fighting continues around, and inside, the city of Siversk. Imagery confirmed Russian forces have moved into the small town of Svyato-Pokrovske, just south-west of Siversk, as well as having gained some ground on the south-east edge of Siversk, and in advancing on both the west and east sides of Yampil (6-7 miles north-west of Siversk), and bringing more firepower to bear on the T0513 roadway, a key GLOC into Siversk. As long as the ground has not frozen this would seem to cut any resupply into Siversk.

Imagery also confirmed more small Russian units (recon elements) active inside Siversk and unconfirmed reporting suggests some Russian gains near the center of the city.

North-west of Toretsk there are multiple claims of Russian gains, though they remain unconfirmed. Nevertheless, most of them probably equate to multiple Russian recon elements probing several miles or more into Ukrainian terrain. Of note, however are reports of Russian probes pushing up the M03 roadway from the Bakhmut area and reaching Minkivka and Pryvillia, as well as again pushing west and reaching Klynove. The Russian recon elements are getting lots of practice but they all seem to be able to more easily push past the front line and get into Ukraine’s "near rear."

At the same time, Ukrainian forces continue to counter-attack and imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces have pushed deeper into the western edge of Ivanopillia.

Further west, the fight continues for Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk pocket. Just to the north of the pocket it appears that Russian forces made gains just north of Shakhove. Ukrainian forces inside the pocket continue to hold their ground. In Pokrovsk itself it now appears that the city is in Russian control, but the city has not been cleared and Ukrainian elements remain in scattered sites across there city. Russian forces are using drones, mortars and air strikes to clear these positions. Russian forces in the Rivne area are claiming to made some gains into Mirnohrad but these area not confirmed. Russian forces also claimed gains in southern Mirnohrad, but these also are not confirmed. 

At the same time, Ukrainian forces continue to report that logistics support continues to move into Myrnohrad for the Ukrainian units remaining in the city.

There were no confirmed changes to the front line south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha river.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

From the Vovcha River southward to Hulyaipole fighting continues and Ukrainian forces retook some terrain in the Danylivka area and in the Novooleksandrivka area (about 15 and 18 miles north of Hukyaipole, respectively), even as Russian forces expanded their footprint in the Dobrypillia area (just south of Danylivka). In Hulyaipole and the surrounding area Russian forces continue to probe into the city and to strike hard points with drones, artillery and glide bombs. It is of note that the Hulyaipole fight has advanced to the point that Russian glide bombs are being directed towards Ukrainian hard points inside the city, which has become more common, with Russian forces using heavy ordnance to break the hardened positions rather than trying to use infantry to take those positions.

Fighting continues along the southern front line but there were no substantive changes over the weekend.

Small unit engagements continue along the Dnepr River up river from Kherson, but there continues to be no substantive details,

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 7th-December 8th, Russian forces launched at least 149 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 131 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and a temporary blackouts were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties include at least 2 civilians killed and 31 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 3 towns.

UAF 39th brigade, out of Ozerne Air Base, Zhytomyr oblast (about 75 miles west of Kyiv) lost a SU-27 Flanker and yesterday while “conducting a combat mission in eastern Ukraine.” The pilot, LtCol Ivanov, was killed in the crash.

During the period from December 4th through December 7th Russian forces launched at least 6 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 16 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 34 x cruise missiles, and 1,319 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 3 Iskander ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles, and 784 drones.

Virtually every oblast in the east half of the country was struck, targets again focused on power grid infrastructure.

Casualty reports are not complete but at least 2 civilians were killed.

During the night of December 2nd-December 3rd, Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, and 138 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Mikolaiv oblasts.

Civilian casualties include at least 4 civilians killed and 7 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 3 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec4 Dec8

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.99 62.94

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.31 59.26

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.94 4.96

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.36 5.38

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 76.82 76.52

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.18 42.15

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.32 54.92

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 56.67 61.95

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.84 60.62

Thoughts

There is a good deal of reporting on Russian forces gaining ground from Siversk to west of Chasiv yar, to the Pokrovsk pocket to the Hulyaipole area but it remains for the most part unconfirmed due to the poor weather. There are, however, common threads in all of the reporting: multiple deep recon probes, drone strikes up to 10 miles behind the lines striking both fixed positions and vehicles on GLOCs bringing supplies forward (in a few cases further than 10 miles), the more aggressive use of Russian Air Force glide bombs to hit hardened Ukrainian positions, and the continued missile and drone strikes on the power grid and train lines.

All put together, it seems that the Russian interdiction of GLOCs has finally begin to synchronize with the Russian ground effort. 

At the same time, Google Earth imagery reveals new Ukrainian defensive positions - trenches, fighting positions, and dragon teeth anti-tank lines - as the Ukrainian army has built new, in-depth defenses to complicate and slow further Russian movements.

That said, Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad seem unlikely to hold out through the end of the year, and it is possible Siversk could be taken soon after the start of the year. Hulyaipole will likely take a little longer. 

All together, the Ukrainian army continues to show incredible grit, but the Russians retain the initiative and continue to inflict casualties and slowly gain ground. 

v/r pete