December 15th, 2025 Happy Hanukkah! (14th-22nd)

Politics - Zelenskyy, Witkoff meting in Berlin

- Zelenskyy will drop NATO if US gives article 5 guarantee 

Combat Ops - Ukrainian forces gain ground in Kupyansk

- Grind continues in Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole

Weather

Kharkiv

28 and cloudy, snow showers possible tonight. Cloudy all week. Daily highs in the mod 30s, daily lows near freezing, except Thursday, which will see highs near 40. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

30 and cloudy, showers possible tonight. Cloudy all week. Daily highs through Wednesday in the upper 30s, daily lows in the lower 30s. Thursday through Saturday daily highs in the 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

35 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy or mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily highs will be in the mid to upper 30s, daily lows near freezing, wind chills in the low 20s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy and Ambassador Witkoff met today in Berlin

Following the meeting the Ukrainian National Security Council released the following:

Over the past two days, Ukrainian-US negotiations have been constructive and productive, with real progress achieved. We hope we will reach an agreement that will bring us closer to peace by the end of the day. There is a lot of noise and anonymous speculation in the media right now. Please don’t fall for rumors and provocations. The American team led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working extremely constructively to help Ukraine find a way to a peace agreement that lasts. The Ukrainian team is enormously grateful to President Trump and his team for all the efforts they are putting in.

Earlier, President Zelenskyy commented that Ukraine is prepared to end requests for NATO membership in exchange for a security guarantee from the US and Europe similar to article 5 of the North Atlantic Alliance.

“From the very beginning, Ukraine’s desire was to join NATO; these are real security guarantees. Some partners from the US and Europe did not support this direction.”

“Thus, today, bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the US, Article 5-like guarantees for us from the US, and security guarantees from European colleagues, as well as other countries – Canada, Japan – are an opportunity to prevent another Russian invasion. And it is already a compromise from our part.”

Zelenskyy had also commented on the differences between negotiating positions held by the US and Ukraine 

"We and Russia have different positions as regards territory… I believe the US, as a mediator, will propose steps to find at least some consensus. I hope the US will continue to play a mediating role in these matters."

"Of course, not all the issues are simple; some are particularly complex, especially regarding territories. Obviously, everyone raises this issue, and it's important that we all work to ensure these matters are handled fairly. There has been extensive dialogue on the territories, and it seems we still hold different positions, but I believe my counterparts have listened to my personal stance.”

Chancellor Merz feels that there is now a chance for peace.

"We'll walk the path to peace together with you, with Ukrainians, with our European neighbours, and also with the United States. I believe that today we've taken a good step on this path and will take the next one."

"This will not knock us off our path. We're pursuing five goals that we, Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans, have agreed upon together.”

-  a ceasefire that preserves Ukraine's sovereignty.

• the ceasefire must be secured by legal and material security guarantees from the United States and the Europeans - US proposed legal guarantees he viewed as: ”This is real progress, which I very much welcome.”
• developing the ceasefire together – the Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans
• the ceasefire must preserve Ukraine's European perspective and contribute to Ukraine's recovery

"Yesterday and today we made important progress in agreeing on a joint negotiating position. In confidential conversations, we explained our positions in detail and listened to one another. I hope that this evening we will make the next step forward to close ranks between Ukraine, the United States and Europe."

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting grinds on but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines north of Sumy city.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines here or in the border region north of the Oskil river.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk, with Ukrainian forces appearing to have retaken much of the previously occupied sections of the city, and only several small Russian elements appear to be isolated in the center and south center of the city.

What is also of note is that the Russian force presence in general area has seemed to decline even as the Ukrainian presence has increased, with Ukrainian forces plussing up the forces by one or two brigades beginning in November and Russian forces over the past week or so (perhaps longer) appear to have withdrawn several brigades, essentially giving up the fight for the city. 

It has not been clear how big a force the Russians had actually pushed into the city; with reporting running from “less than 200” (a comment made by President Zelenskyy several weeks ago) to about two battalions (from multiple sources, which seemed reasonable), to “1 or 2 brigades,” based on Russian bloggers. 

Today, the assessment was there were perhaps 150 Russian remaining inside Kupyansk.

In any case, the Ukrainian forces moved into the area by early November and managed over the past 2 weeks to sever Russian lines of communication into their forces in the center of the city, cutting off some, forcing others to withdraw, and Ukrainian forces now seem to once again control the city.

Nevertheless, Russian forces continue to probe into the city, suggesting that any withdrawal was simply battlefield necessity and they remain committed to taking the city, but currently lack the assets to do so.

Further south there was a reduced number of engagements reported and no changes in the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut, hard fighting continues around Siversk, and the actual front line around Siversk remains difficult to exactly define. Some reporting suggest Russian forces control most of Siversk, having pushed up to the banks of the Bakhmutovka River as it snakes through the city, with just the north-west quarter of the city held by Ukrainians; other reporting suggests Russian forces have progressed no further west than the rail line that cuts the city into an eastern and western half, and further reporting suggests Ukraine forces still retain parts of Sviato-Pokrovske just to the south-west.

That said, the Russians appear to have at least 5 brigades engaged in taking Siversk and Sviato-Pokrovske with an artillery brigade in support.

North-west of Toretsk fighting continues in the eastern end of Kostiantinivka. Imagery confirmed that on Thursday Ukrainian  forces retook some terrain on the very east end of the city. But, Russian probes into the city and Russian efforts to take and hold some terrain on the edge of the city have been more successful than was expected, given that Kostiantinivka is the first of the major cities on the “fortress belt,” and suggests to me that Russian tactics continue to evolve and become more successful at penetrating defensive positions.

West of Toretsk, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, there was a good deal of fighting reported along the front lines but there were no confirmed changes to the line.

Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk pocket continues to be the center of a good deal of fighting and reporting, but sorting out exactly what is happening remains difficult.

Inside Pokrovsk itself there are several reliable reports of at least one Ukrainian element holding a position inside the city - surrounded by Russian forces, and a similar situation exists in the city of Rivne (just north-east of Pokrovsk). As for the pocket, that has been squeezed to roughly the north half of the city of Myrnohrad. Russian forces have pushed into the east side of the city and fighting is now being reported about a half mile east of the center of the city.

Also of note, some reporting suggests that Ukrainian forces have reopened at least one road into the city from the west, though it would seem that the gap, which is at most 3,000 yards across, would easily be covered by artillery and drones. And some reporting continues to show that the mouth of the pocket has, in fact, been closed. Ukrainian forces continue to attack from the north-west and and there is a Ukrainian force of unknown size on the north-west edge of Pokrovsk.

Fighting continues southwest of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha river, but there were no confirmed gains along the line in this area. Anecdotal reporting continues to suggest that Russian forces are slowly occupying the terrain north of Dachne, east of Filliia and that Russian forces have now reached the immediate vicinity of Novopavlivka from the north-east.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There was fighting just south of the Vovcha River, but there are no confirmed changes in this area. Further south, in the terrain north of Hulyaipole, Russian forces appear to have pushed down the T0401 roadway and entered Varvarivka. Whether they have control of that town or not is unclear, though it appears that they do. If so, this gives Russian forces an advantage in attacking Hulyaipole, as they will be able to attack it from west of the Haichur River; behind nearly all defensive positions in the city.

As for Hulyaipole itself, fighting is taking place in eastern Hulyaipole and along most of the north-east edge of the city, but Ukrainian forces are currently holding.

Further west, fighting was reported on some islands in the Dnepr River and near the Antonovskiy bridge, but there were, as normal, no details given.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 14th-December 15th, Russian forces launched at least 153 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF has yet to report on numbers engaged.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and the Ukrainain General Staff is reporting that the Astrakhan gas processing plant in Kyiv has been struck.

Civilian casualties include at least 6 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 6 towns.

During the three nights of December 11th-December 14th, Russian forces launched at least 4 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 6 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x Iskander cruise missiles, 16 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 683 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace, targeting the power grid and transportation assets across eastern and central Ukraine. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 13 cruise missiles, and 591 drones.

Civilian casualties include at least 14 civilians injured. More than 1 million households suffered blackouts over the weekend. 

For the week of December 7th - December 14th Russian forces launched more than 1,500 Shahed drones, 500 glide bombs and 46 missiles into Ukrainian airspace. 

Over the weekend Ukrainian forces again struck an oil and gas platform in the Caspian Sea; there is no current damage assessment.

A Ukrainian sea-borne drone (a “Sea Baby” USV) struck a Russian Kilo class submarine in Novorossiysk. Independent damage assessment pending.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Dec12 Dec15

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.00 60.65

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.33 56.90

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 4.09 4.01

Wheat     8.52          5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.31 5.23

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 79.56 79.25

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 42.20 42.10

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 51.94 51.53

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 54.56 59.12

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 58.23 57.84

Urals oil is now at its lowest price since March 2023

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy’s compromise - dropping NATO membership request in exchange for an Article 5 guarantee from the US - would seem to be too big an ask. The US - and at least 5 other NATO countries - have repeatedly spoken against NATO membership for Ukraine precisely because of Article 5 guarantees. 

And while article 5 says that “an attack against one is an attack against all,” it is not an automatic commitment; each country’s laws and constitutions remain in effect and the various governments must decide how they will react.

Nevertheless, the understanding is that an attack on a member - or a country with such a guarantee, would mean the others, in this case the US, would go to war in support of the attacked country - Ukraine.

Not only is the US unlikely to accept that, Russia is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire that is predicated on that point.

Said differently, the words sound good, but they translate into: the war goes on.

v/r pete