December 2nd, 2025  

Politics - Witkoff meeting with Putin

Combat Ops - Pokrovsk 95% controlled by Russia

- Myrnohrad surrounded 

- Russian gains north of Hulkyaipole

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, temperatures still not cold enough to freeze the fields. Thick fog continues to be reported in the Pokrovsk area.

Kharkiv

38 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows in the low to mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds easterly, 5kts.

Melitopol

43 and cloudy. Cloudy through Thursday, some sun possible on Friday. Daily lows in the low to mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

36 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows will be in the mid 30s, daily highs around 40. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff began a meeting with President Putin around noon EDT today. As I write this they are still in the meeting.

The Netherland and Ukraine have agreed to a joint drone production effort, with the Netherlands agreeing to buy 250 million euros ($290 million) worth of weapons from Ukraine.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv; Russian sources claim the city of Vovchansk is now under Russian control but this seems to be at best an exaggeration, and should be seen at part of a Russian disinformation effort to hurt Ukrainian morale, and weaken European support for Ukraine. Russian forces do have a firm grasp of most of Vovchansk, but activate elves ahve decreased.

In both the lodgment north of Kharkiv City and that north of Sumy city, both sides have stripped out assets and shifted them southward and the lack of movement on any given day is nothing more than an indication that the main efforts are elsewhere. Russian forces will continue to conduct recon probes into Ukrainian controlled terrain, and to a lesser extent the Ukrainians will reciprocate. But on any given day activity will be limited to such probes, plus drones and artillery “plinking."

Fighting was reported just inside Ukraine, north of the Oskil River, but there was no confirmed change in the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk; the only confirmed change showed Ukrainian forces control Kurylivka (about 4 miles south-east of Kupyansk) despite claims by some Russian bloggers. 

South of Kupyansk (about 6 miles north of Borova), there are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian force that was in a small pocket centered on Nova Kruhliakivka, have pushed west and retaken the town of Bohuslavka. There an also unconfirmed reports that Russian forces just to the south of this area have pushed further west. A few days of clear weather are needed to clear this up - but that is unlikely to happen until, perhaps, this coming weekend.

Further south, imagery confirms Ukrainian forces hold Stavky (about 4 miles north of Lyman), while unconfirmed reports claim Russian gains east of Lyman - which appears to be supported by Ukrainian General Staff reports, and also possible gains west of Lyman. At the same time, there are claims that despite Russian gains, the major GLOC into Lyman from the west, the C051018 roadway that runs through Drobysheve, remains open for Ukrainian logistics trucks. Given Russian drone and artillery fire, this must be quite a sporty drive.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues around Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues west of Bakhmut along the entire forward line of troops, in particular on the east and south-east edge of Kostiantinivka, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. Russian sources claim that Russian forces have taken control of Maiske (3 miles north-west of Chasiv Yar) and Klynove (6 miles west of Chasiv Yar), but this has not been confirmed.

West of Toretsk, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces pushing northward from the Shakhove area into Sofiivka, and fighting continues west of this area in Dorozhnyi and Rodynske, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

In and around Pokrovsk there is a great deal of fighting reported, characterized as fierce, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines. Ukrainian sources continue to insist that logistics support is reaching the Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad, and that Russian forces do not have full control over Pokrovsk itself.

That said, a senior, unnamed NATO official commented that Myrnohrad is now “virtually encircled.”

"There is a narrow corridor through which the Ukrainians can withdraw certain forces, but it is a very narrow corridor, itself under hostile fire control. Overall, this is an encirclement, though not yet a complete encirclement."

"Ukrainian forces are still conducting defensive actions inside the city, but as supply routes have been almost completely cut, Ukrainian troops are dependent on resupply by drones, which is becoming increasingly difficult.”

The same official commented on Pokrovsk, noting that:

”Russians control over 95% of the city… There are only isolated pockets where Ukrainian forces continue to resist."

This is almost certainly true; but the actual measure of Ukrainian presence is unknown. It is probable that Russian forces have isolated a number of Ukrainian elements inside Pokrovsk, and that Ukrainian forces continue to push into the northern edge of the Russian line, which is the northern edge of Pokrovsk itself. But there are credible sources that Russian forces pushing north from Pokrovsk have made contact with Russian forces pushing south from Rodynske, which would mean they had cut off the Pokrovsk pocket and Myrnohrad. There are some reports that some vehicles, carrying ammo and supplies are still making it through. Again, that would be a very sporty ride.

At the same time, there are reports of Russian air strikes in Myrnohrad, using FAB 500 (500KG (1100lbs) and FAB 1500 (1500KG (3300lbs)) precision glide bombs, which the Russian have used to destroy heavily built bunkers rather that trying to dig out the soldiers inside, and thus more easily move through defended urban areas. This tactic has allowed the Russians to take a number of cities with substantially reduced casualties  (Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Marinka, etc.)

Fighting continues south and south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed charges to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reporting notes Russian gains in the towns just east of Hulyaipole; it appears that all of these those towns are now occupied by Russian forces. Of interest, Russian forces took the high ground east of Hulyaipole in about a week of fighting, but whether that means the Ukrainian force was overwhelmed or the Ukrainian forces withdrew to better ground is not known.

North of Hulyaipole Russian forces also were confirmed to have pushed the line west; the front line now runs from the east edge of Hulyaipole north-west to a point just east of Zelene and northward, just east of the T0401 roadway, to the vicinity of Nove Zaporizhzhia, on the Haichur River. Hulyaipole logistics support is now reduced to trucks moving into the city on the T0814 roadway from the west.

Fighting was reported south and south-east of Orikhiv, and further west of Orikhiv near Stepanohirsk, but there was no confirmed change to the front lines. 

Fighting was again reported near the Antonvoskiy bridge, up river for Kherson city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 1st-December 2nd, Russian forces launched at least 62 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 39 drones. 

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

There are no casualties reports yet.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 2 towns.

During the night of November 30-December 1st, Russian forces launched at least 89 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 63 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts. Targets included the power grid; there were power blackouts in Kyiv, and a partial blackout in Odessa.

At least 4 civilians were killed and 40 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.

Ukrainian naval drones struck the Russian flagged tanker MidVolga-2 about 75 miles off the northern Turkish coast as the ship carried sunflower oil to Georgia. The 13 man crew was reported to be unharmed.

The ship was proceeding under own power to Sinop, Turkey.

This is the third Russian tanker to be struck.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec1 Dec2

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 63.38 62.23

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.54 58.44

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.82 4.91

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.36 5.33

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 77.72 77.18

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.33 42.32

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.42 54.22

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 56.88 56.88

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.43 60.05

Thoughts

Russian forces can be expected to clear Pokrovsk in the next few weeks, Myrnohrad will take longer. But there is little reason to expect some sort of change in the trend line; Pokrovsk will be cleared, Myrnohrad will fall.

Further north, the development north of Kostiantinivka, is worrying. Given the disposition of forces over the past several weeks, the report on Maiske (North-west of Chasiv Yar, north-east of Kostiantinivka) is credible, but the claim that Russian forces have taken Klynove (5 miles north-north-west of Kostiantinivka) would be unusual and would require that a Russian element had pushed past the front line and penetrated at least 5 miles past the Ukraine forward line of troops. If so, it would suggest Kostiantinivka could be at greater risk than all earlier estimates.

This rapid, fairly deep, penetration is what happened in August that resulted in the Salient that pushed some 12 miles into Ukrainian controlled terrain, and was the result of holes in the line due to insufficient numbers of Ukrainian infantry on the line. If this has happened again, given the level of importance of Kostiantinivka, this would suggest the manpower “crunch” is getting worse. If this has happened, I would expect Ukrainian forces will move rapidly to cut off this Russian element and reclaim control of Klynove. But it raises the obvious question: where would they find those troops, and what section of the line would be stripped?

v/r pete