February 16th, 2026

Politics - Negotiators to meet in Geneva tomorrow (17th)

- Zelenskyy warns of large strike, 1200 homes still without heat

Combat Ops - Ukrainian Counter-offensive gains ground

Economy - China on pace to buy 2.1 million barrels of oil per day

 

Weather

Kharkiv

25 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Cloudy all week, rain - snow mix Wednesday through Saturday. Daily lows will be in the upper teens, daily highs in the 20s, windchills could drop into single digits. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

32 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain-snow mix tomorrow, continuing into Thursday morning. Some sun Thursday afternoon, otherwise, cloudy. Daily lows upper 20s to low 30s, daily highs upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

17 and cloudy, gusting over 20, windchill 5. Cloudy for the next week, snow Wednesday night through Friday. Daily lows in single digits, daily highs upper teens to low 20s all week. Windchills during the day in single digits, well below zero at night. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelensky: Russia is preparing for a large-scale strike

President Zelenskyy posted that there are indications that Russia is preparing another" large-scale strike.”

"I instructed the commander of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Anatolii Kryvonozhko, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov and the head of Ukrenergo Vitalii Zaichenko to prepare the necessary additional protection measures during the day, taking into account the information from the intelligence service about Russia's preparation of a massive strike.”

"Every Russian missile is the aggressor's answer to their calls to end the war, which is why we emphasize: only with sufficient pressure on Russia and clear security guarantees for Ukraine can this war realistically be brought to an end."

Zelenskyy also commented on the Munich Security Conference.

"Over the next few days, we need to implement the agreements already reached. We are also working to expedite the delivery of missiles for air defence – this remains an unchanged priority. The task of all relevant institutions of our state is to help accelerate air defence support from our partners.”

Mayor Klitschko posted that some 1,200 houses in Kyiv are still without heat, as are 153 schools.

Strikes on the power grid continue to affect civilians across Ukraine; following the strikes last Wednesday night, 300,000 people in the Odessa area were left without power or water, and 200 apartment buildings and no heat.

The Ukrainian delegation has arrived in Geneva for the next round of talks, scheduled to begin tomorrow, February 17th. Rustem Umierov, the Ukrainian lead, noted:

"The Ukrainian delegation has already arrived in Geneva. Tomorrow, we begin the next round of negotiations in the trilateral format. The agenda has been agreed and the team is ready to work. We expect constructive engagement and substantive meetings on security and humanitarian issues in order to move towards a dignified and lasting peace."

President Zelenskyy spoke with SecState Rubio as well as Ambassador Witkoff and Mr. Kushner about, among other things, security guarantees. Zelenskyy wants a 20 year security guarantee, the White House favors a 15 year guarantee, and he called for the guarantees to be in place before any peace agreement.

EU Foreign Policy Director Kallas commented that the EU governments are not prepared to give Ukraine a hard date fro membership, and Latvian President Rinkevics added that “there is no readiness to accept a date.” 

President Zelenskyy commented that Russia is currently holding 7,000 Ukrainians as POWs, while Ukraine is holding 4,000 Russian soldiers as POWs.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV

Fighting continued north of Sumy City, as well as north of Kharkiv city; imagery confirmed Russian gains south of Vovchansk, and have probably reached the northern edge of the town of Symynivka, even as Ukraine forces have pushed back into the town of Vilcha.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian clearing of northern Kupyansk, but there were no confirmed gains elsewhere in this front except well to the south, with small Russian gains around Lyman.

In the area between Slovyansk and Siversk there were multiple claims of Russian gains but these were not confirmed.

Russian forces do appear to be holding their position to the south-east of Nykyforivka.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

A good deal of reporting of Russian strikes, and Russian gains, in the Kostiantinivka, and a good deal of conflicting reporting, suggesting that another “patchwork” of forces - Ukrainian and Russian - has developed in south-eastern Kostiantinivka. Further, there is more reporting of Russian probes into the city north of the T0504 roadway, as well as Russian forces reported in the “dacha’ area (residential area) immediately north-east of the city.

Fighting also continues further west, north of Pokrovsk, as well as in the Pokrovsk area (on the north-west edge of the city), but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Ukrainian forces made more gains at several spots along the line north of Hulyaipole. Ukrainian forces operating near Vidradne (about 15 miles due north of Hulyaipole) have over the last few days pushed south-east almost six miles and reached the small town of Rybne, retaking the 4 small towns located north-west of Rybne on the Yanchur River. Ukrainian forces appear to be following the Yanchur River, and now have a salient about 7 miles long and about a half mile wide. This is all flat farmland, but they are mainly on the river line so any small local high ground will, in fact, be higher ground they will want to take. 

This southern half of this salient is about 3 miles long and about a half mile wide, a narrow salient to hold without reinforcements.

Ukrainian forces also pushed south and west from Sosnivka (about 18 miles north-north-east of Hulyaipole). To the south they have advanced about 2 miles and pushed into the small towns of Ternove and Berezove; to the south-west they have pushed into the town of Olesiivka.

Further south, the salient opened last Thursday, due east of Dobrypillia, does not appear to have changed, though reporting is lacking. This salient, which saw a Ukrainian force advance due east down a 2-lane road about a mile-and-a-half and then push a bit more than a half mile down a small river bed. This salient - if reporting is accurate, is not much wider than the road and river, a 2 - 3 mile long salient that is perhaps 300 - 400 yards wide.

Note, the size of all the Ukrainian elements in each salient is unknown, but there are reports of two full Ukrainian brigades - a mechanized infantry brigade and a straight infantry brigade, involved in this advance, and spotty reporting suggests other forces. It is not clear how much they are being reinforced so as to hold their positions. At the same time, it is unknown what response the Russians have pushed at these salients so far, if any. Within 10 miles of the salients, Russian forces have at least 6 regiments - infantry or mechanized infantry, but it isn’t clear who has been committed to what.

Further to the south, imagery confirms Ukrainian forces still hold positions west of Hulyaipole on the west edge of the village of Svyatopetrivka, about 4 miles west-north-west of Hulyaipole. This position appears to be holding on one tree line and the end of the single road that forms most of the village. At the same time, this reporting suggests that the Ukrainian elements can advance no further, that the rest of the town and the terrain immediately to their east is, in fact, controlled by Russian forces.

Air and Maritime Operations

President Zelenskyy posted that Russian forces launched 1,300 strike drones, 1,200 glide bombs and 50 missiles (mostly ballistic missiles) during the week of February 8th - February 14th)

Zelenskyy also noted that a Russian strike destroyed a Ukrainian production line for the FP-5 Flamingo missile, but the task has been relocated and production has resumed.

This is an unusual admission by Zelenskyy or the Ukrainian MOD which is very wary of releasing any hard data on the results of Russian strikes, except for impact on civilians.

During the night of February 15th-February 16th Russian forces launched at least 4 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-31P ARM, and 62 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, both Zircon missiles, and 52 drones.

Damage was reported in Kirovohrad and Kyiv oblasts,

There were no casualty reports as I wrote this.

RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.

During the period from February 11th through February 15th Russian forces launched at least 26 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 568 x strike drones strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 15 ballistic missiles, 1 cruise missile, and 454 drones.

Damage was reported in across much of Ukraine, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.

Ukrainian strikes hit an oil terminal near Volna (just east of the Kerch Strait) on the night of the 14th, dragged at least one storage tank and started a fire.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb12 Feb16

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 68.95 68.24

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 64.28 63.40

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.27 3.03

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.40 5.43

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.20 76.82

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.05 43.20

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 57.66 55.36

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 61.05 59.09

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 64.60 62.87

Russian oil exports to China reached 1.7 million barrels per day in January and are on pace to reach 2.1 million barrels per day in February.

Thoughts

Walks like a duck, quacks like a duck…

I think we have a small counter-offensive taking place and Ukrainian forces continue to retake ground along, and east of, the Haichur River, in an area about 10 - 15 miles north of Hulyaipole. Hard numbers on the forces involved on each side are lacking, but it appears that this, as noted in the past, reminiscent of the differences in the two armies. The Russian army, more concerned with inflicting casualties and on preventing glaring mistakes, moves very slowly and does not respond quickly to a Ukrainian gain. The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, is substantially more nimble and can exploit seams in the Russian line.

A question mark here is whether the Ukrainian army’s strategic reserves in infantry units, as well as logistic support are adequate to exploit a breakthrough at anything other than tactical depths. A thrust can be made that will penetrate 5, perhaps even 10 miles, but to date they have not shown that they (the Ukrainian army) can punch through the permanent Russian defensive lines. So, after perhaps a 10 mile gain, the advance then stops.

This is what happened after the Russian salient north of Pokrovsk in August: Russian forces found a seam, exploited it, Ukrainian forces counter-attacked and retook much of the salient within weeks, but they counter thrust was unable to maintain momentum and bogged down near the Russian defensive lines, and then the Russian began to once again grind forward.

If the Ukrainian army has an adequate strategic reserve (perhaps by shifting forces and taking more risk elsewhere), and if they committed it now, north of Hulyaipole, they might be able to push deep into the Russian lines, but that is a higher risk operation. If the Russian line held, the Ukrainian army would run the risk of losing its reserves, and placing the whole line at risk.

It is of note that a large share of the Ukrainian success is being placed at the feet of the Russian loss of Starlink as a command and control (C2) system. Russian forces were making great use of Starlink to conduct deeper drone strikes on Ukrainian ground lines of communication. Without that, Ukrainian units are able to move more forces forward, faster. Russians forces are now scrambling to set up a replacement system of their own design, which includes use of a high-altitude aerostat, operating above 60,000 feet. 

v/r pete 

 Fixing Shipbuilding

February 15th, 2026

In 2010 I had reason to go onto Navy Base, Little Creek, and while there I noticed one of the LSDs (a “Landing Ship, Dock,” an amphibious warfare ship) on the pier; it looked like the devil: rust stains everywhere, netting on the edges of the hangar deck needed to be replaced, overall it looked filthy, no rat guards on the mooring lines, etc. I remember thinking “they must have just come back from a long, painful deployment.”

Later, I asked around; the ship had been in port for more than a month.

Since then I’ve noticed, repeatedly, US Navy ships often - too often - look like maintenance is being ignored. And when examined, the record supports that conclusion. 

When a submarine - USS Boise - can pull pier side and sit idle long enough to loose dive certification and then - 9 years later - still hasn’t had the necessary maintenance to go back to sea, something is horribly wrong. Boise was commissioned in 1992; in October 2015 she finished a deployment and returned to the US. She has been pier-side since.

We’re told the Navy is working on a plan to fix these sort of things, to fix the backlog in maintenance, to speed up the construction of destroyers and submarines, etc. My guess is that really, they aren’t. How can I say that? 

The Navy bought 10 Nimitz class carriers, with Nimitz being commissioned in 1975 and Bush in 2009 - 44 years. Or, 1 every 4.4 years. Nimitz is now being retired so we’re down to just 10 aircraft carriers. Carriers are designed to last 50 years (as did Nimitz). Simple math says that if you want to keep 10 aircraft carriers, you need to make one every 5 years. JFK is the designated replacement for Nimitz. It will - hopefully - be commissioned in 2027, So, for 2 years we operate with a fleet of 10 aircraft carriers. (JFK reportedly did very well on her recent sea trials so hopefully she’ll make her dates.)

Still, the point is we’re dancing around with 10 aircraft carriers. The law says we are supposed to have 11. And Fleet schedulers will tell you the right number should be 12 - 15. (Which speaks to why we need another means of projecting combat power, like a task force centered on a DEFIANT class battleship, with the right mix of unmanned ships and subs and aircraft.)

But why are we still stutter-stepping into the future despite the President’s obvious affinity for ships, as well the efforts of the Secretary of War and the Secretary of Navy? Why is this? For a host of reasons. 

But, it’s worth noting that inside the system the same people are in charge now who were in charge 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14… years ago. The same senior civilians, or their successors, carefully groomed by their now retired mentors, and junior officers who are now senior officers, handpicked by the people who got us here. Congressman and Senators are still, for the most part ignorant of the real mess and caught up in the never-ending chaos of Capital hill, and behind it, contractors who are very concerned with market cap, but not so much with delivering on time and on budget (just addressed by the President last week).

And so, a year after the administration came into office there has been no substantive change in how, in the shipyards, or pier side, how we do business. The budget has grown, but the “system” and various supporting staffs, are still playing by the same rule book, confidant they can wait it out and stay in their jobs and all these annoyances will have little real impact on them.

It is illustrative that we have so little flexibility in our ship schedules that FORD has been sent back across the Atlantic, and will, it appears, have a 10 month deployment - and miss a yard period - that is, her yard period will have to be pushed “to the right.” 

What is the plan to fix it? Thing is, we not only don’t need a perfect plan, we don’t want one - even if they existed (which they don’t). We certainly don’t want the plan crafted by the big service staffs - they caused the problem. We need an 80% solution - now. We can get an 80% solution in a matter of days, then aggressively execute it.

I have been reading a great deal about how artificial intelligence has improved in the last several years and continues to improve; that tasks that would take people months or even years to complete can be done now in days or in some cases even hours. 

Consider the blueprints for a ship. The rules of ship design, and the lessons of what works best and what doesn’t work well, are well known. Why can’t a ship design be produced by AI? We aren’t trying to do something new with most ships, they are simply platforms, platforms for carrying cargo, or carrying weapons and sensors, platforms for Marines. It would seem that, instead of spending 4 years, as one “expert” suggested, to design a new ship, why can’t we get it done in 4 weeks with the help of AI? My guess is we could. We know what weapons we want, what sensors, what speed and range, what compartmentation, crew size, survivability, armor (depending on the ship class), etc., etc.

Further, why aren’t ships being built by “robots,” by AI driven machinery. It takes 51,000,000 “man-hours” to build a FORD class carrier. Why can’t some of those “men” be machines? Machines don’t need time off, Newport News ships yard should be building ships 8760 hours per year.

AI could be used to fine-tune the assembly plan to not only standardize each ship but to simplify construction - a la Henry Kaiser and the simplification of the Liberty Ship at the start of WWII.

And why couldn’t we have 5,000 robots working on a FORD class carrier? Who say we can’t build a carrier in less than 2 years? Maybe the long pole in the tent would be the reactor, and the rest of the ship would take less than 2 years to assemble.

A DDG takes about 4 million “man hours” - 1,000 robots, and the right construction plan, working round the clock… make a DDG in 5 months? Why not? 

Let’s take a hard turn on our various ship designs and each “assembly plan,” have AI “crunch the numbers” and see what we can do to make it better.

Then, SecWar and SecNav ask the key House and Senate figures - House and Senate Arm Services committee chairs and ranking members, and the seapower subcommittees chairs and ranking members, the presidents of the appropriate unions, the presidents of the major shipyards, and several representatives from the world of AI and automation, along with the CNO and Lant and Pacflt - to sit down for 1 long weekend - Thursday night to Tuesday morning. And build the 80% solution to fix ship maintenance and ship building - and then execute it.

 February 12th, 2026 Next Summary February 16th

Politics - Negotiations next week - still tentative

- Mrs. Trump assists in return of children

- Small generators for Kyiv

Combat Ops  - Little change on ground

- Another CHPP damaged in Kyiv

 

Weather

Kharkiv

35 and light rain. Cloudy for the next week, rain Saturday through Monday morning, rain may turn into snow Sunday night. Temperatures in the 30s through Monday morning, then the cold weather returns. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

38 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, daily rain or snow showers possible Friday through Wednesday. Daily low temperatures in the 30s, daily highs in the 40s, through Monday, then cold weather returns. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

34 and cloudy, gusting over 20, fog. Cloudy for the next week, snow or rain showers Saturday through Monday. Warmer temperatures through Sunday morning, low to mid 30s. Sunday temperatures will start to fall, back into the teens by Monday night, single digits by Tuesday. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Another round of negotiations have been tentatively scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday (February 17th and 18th) in the US (Miami) but Russia has yet to officially agree.

The White House reports that Mrs. Trump helped in returning kidnapped Ukrainian children to their families, the third time that she has provided this assistance. In this case it involved 7 children being returned to their families in Ukraine. In October and December Mrs. Trump helped return 15 children to their families. Mrs. Trump has also been involved with the return of Russian children to ther families, though there are no further details. 

"I appreciate that Russia and Ukraine are dedicated to bringing back the children who have been displaced because of the circumstances surrounding this conflict. Although all parties are cooperating and our communications remain robust, I urge Russia and Ukraine to intensify their efforts to ensure the safe return of every child to their families and guardians.”

More small generators have been turned over to Mayor Klitschko from the EU, bringing the total to 500 x 20 and 22KW generators.

Mayor Klitschko:

"Kyiv has received the second batch of 323 more generators from the European Union. They were handed over to the capital by EU Commissioner for Preparedness, Crisis Management and Equality Hadja Lahbib, with the participation of First Deputy Minister of Communities and Territories Development of Ukraine Aliona Shkrum. In total, Kyiv received 500 autonomous power sources from the EU. In particular, 438 generators with a capacity of 20 kW and 62 generators with a capacity of 22 kW… The first batch (177 generators), which was received earlier, has already been sent by the city to connect to individual heating stations in buildings where there is such a possibility. The second batch will also be used mainly to power the heating stations. We are grateful to our European partners for this much-needed assistance in the context of the energy crisis in Ukraine and Kyiv!"

CHPP - 6 (Combined Heating and Power Plant 6), located in the Troieshchyna area of Kyiv (north-eastern Kyiv), was damaged during the Russian drone and missile strike last night.

Maksym Bakhmatov, Head of Desnianskyi District State Administration in Kyiv, commented:

"Another hit on the CHP plant. Heating in Ukraine's largest district has stopped again. If we don't start thinking now about de-centralized heat and power generation, the Desnianskyi district will freeze next year.

"There are 130 small boiler houses in Kyiv, and they are providing heating right now. That is the right bank [the city west of the Dnepr River]. We don't have that. By 15 September, we must build 100 MW of electricity capacity and 300 MW of heating. Or more. That volume will definitely give us a chance to get through the next heating season. Without an alternative for electricity and heating, there won't even be a chance in the years ahead.”

2,600 apartment blocks in Kyiv had no heating following attacks last night, in addition to the 1,100 buildings with no heating from earlier strikes.

The United Kingdom has said it will provide 1,000 “Lightweight Multirole Missiles” to Ukraine to improve defense against drones and missiles. The missile, also known as the “Martlet,” is a 29lb, laser-guided missile with a 5 mile range, and can be launched from used as an air-to-air, air-to-surface, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface weapon.

The missile has been in development or initial production since 2011 but was not declared fully operational until October 2025. Initially the UK said it would provide 5,000 Martlet’s to Ukraine.

The UK also announced that it will transfer Nightfall hypersonic missiles to Ukraine.

Nightfall is planned to be a short-range (400+nm), hypersonic ballistic missile with a 660lb warhead. However, MODUK has not yet awarded a development contract (scheduled for March 2026). 

The CEO of Hypesonica, one of the companies involved, said deployment will take place before 2030.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Imagery showed Russian forces moving into terrain just north of the small town of Nova Sich (about 12 miles north-north-east of Sumy city. This is mainly open farmland and two small forested areas just to the north-east and north-west of the town. The town had a population of 373 before the war started.

This represents the furthest south Russian forces have pressed along this front since they withdrew at the end of 2022.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv City but there were no changes to the lines.

East of Kharkiv city, north of the Oskil River, Ukrainian forces pushed eastward and have retaken the small village of Chuhunivka. Russian forces had pushed into the town from the east over the weekend, but had been stopped by Ukrainian forces from getting past the center of the town. Ukrainian forces have now pushed past the town center and appear to control the entire town.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues east and south-east of Kupyansk, but there was no change in the lines. Fighting appears to have finally ended inside Kupyansk, suggesting the last small Russian elements have been cleared - about 60 days to clear 60-80 troops.

Further south, imagery confirmed Russian gains north-north-east of Borova (about 5 miles) as Russian forces pushed into the town of Bohuslavka (a town of perhaps 1300 before the war) from the south-east, and appear to have reached the P-79 roadway and the rail line, that both run in from the south. There is a Ukrainian unit, probably less than a battalion in size, that has been operating just north of this town since late December; Russian control of the road will make resupply difficult.

Just south of the Donets River, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, Russian forces continued to push westward and north-westward from the Bondarne area, across open farmland and pushing north-west up Zarichna street, and have entered the south-east edge of Nykyforivka.

Attacks continued elsewhere, with Russian probes again noted both near and inside Lyman.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Multiple Russian probes, and multiple attacks were noted from north of Chasiv Yar, through south-eastern Kostiantinivka, to north of the Pokrovsk pocket, and north-west Pokrovsk, and on past Novopavlivka to the Vovcha River but there were no confirmed changed in the line in that entire stretch.

However, Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) maps appear to show just a small corner of the very north end of Pokrovsk as not under Russian control. Myrnohrad, Rivne, and Svitle - all east of Pokrovsk, are shown to be under Russian control.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Reporting and imagery show Ukrainian gains at multiple points west and north-west of Hulyaipole, with Ukrainian forces pushing into Ternuvat and Tsvitkove, north-west of Hulyaipole, west of the Haichur river. Ukrainian forces also pushed into Staroukrainka (west of Hulyaipole) and pushed as much as a kilometer into Zaliznychne (south-west of Hulyaipole). 

Russian forces were also attacking along much of this line; Ukrainian commentators suggest that this is not part of some Ukrainian counteroffensive, but rather part of an aggressive clearing operations, and the Russian presence in these area were mainly large probes.

Further west, imagery confirmed both small Russian gains and losses north-east of Stepnohirsk, as Russian forces continue to try it advance up the southern road from Stepnohirsk to Lukyanivske; Russian forces now appear to be just to the west and south-west of Lukyanivske.

Air and Maritime Operations 

There was warning of an IRBM missile launch into Ukraine this morning, but it appears the launch did not take place.

During the night of February 11th-February 12th Russian forces launched at least 24 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 219 x strike drones strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 15 ballistic missiles, 1 cruise missile, and 197 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Poltava oblasts; the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses, with at least one large transformer in Kyiv struck in the strikes, damage assessment pending.

There are reports of at least 2 civilians killed and 19 wounded..

RuAF tacair struck targets in 17 towns.

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Ukrainian Flamingo missiles struck two Russian military faculties, to include an arsenal, in the vicinity of Kotluban, Volgograd, about 150 miles east of Ukraine.

The UGS also reported a successful strike onboard the LukOil facility in Ukhta, Komi Republic, about 800 miles north-east of Moscow.

During the night of February 10th-February 11th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missile and 129 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, both Kinzhals and 112 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Lviv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.

There are reports of at least 7 civilians killed and 26 wounded..

RuAF tacair struck targets in 16 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb11 Feb12

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 69.87 68.95

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 64.98 64.28

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.16 3.27

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.29 5.40

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.17 77.20

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.03 43.05

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 56.54 57.66

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 60.41 61.05

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 64.27 64.60

Thoughts

Tip of the hat to Mrs. Trump… well done.

Russian glide bomb strikes appear to be slowly but steadily increasing, as do the number of towns struck on a daily basis. 

The smallest of the Russian glide bombs was a FAB-250, a 250KG (550lb) weapon (analogous to the US Mk-82 500lb bomb), but in fact, the more common weapon is the FAB-500, a 500KG weapon (1100lbs - the US Mk-83). These are far more destructive than drones, or artillery; a 152MM howitzer - with a 40KG (88lb) shell. Even Russia’s largest battlefield MLRS (similar to HIMARS), a 300MM in diameter rocket, carries a 250KG warhead, half the size the FAB-500.

The combination of more fiber optic FPV drones, with longer ranges, and the deep strike glide bombs - now up to 180 KM 100nm (some sources say 200 KM), as well as improved Russian reconnaissance and intelligence, means Ukrainian army assets and faculties are being struck deeper and deeper in Ukrainian controlled territory, and when they get hit by an 1100 lb bomb the level of damage is simply that much greater. 

While Ukrainian forces are quite proficient at hitting Russian targets in the area immediately behind the front lines, it does appear that Russian forces are more destructive, simply because of the use of more, heavier ordnance, and that currently the Russians have a clear edge in deep strike and in disruption to the ground lines of communication, as well as in the more rapid reduction to a strong point in any given town or city.

v/r pete