September 22nd, 2026 Autumnal Equinox

Politics - Trump In New York for the UNGA

- Duma final count: Putin gets 355 of 450 seats 

Combat Ops - More gains on the ground by both sides

- Strikes continue 

Economics - Ukraine economic damage

Weather

Kharkiv

63 and mostly cloudy. Heavy rain tomorrow and cloudy through the rest of the weekend into the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

67 and cloudy. Heavy rain tomorrow, mostly cloudy through the weekend except Friday, which will be partly sunny. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

56 and partly cloudy. Rain tomorrow, then partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows around 50, daily highs around 60. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Trump chatted with reporters as he entered the UN building this morning and was asked if he had a message for President Putin. President Trump answered:

"Settle the war!" 

President Zelenskyy, also in New York for the UN General Assembly, will meet with President Trump while in New York, but, as I write this, the time of the meeting has not been released.

Zelenskyy spoke with Trump on Sunday, and has said that he is willing to engage in a ceasefire on energy infrastructure and is ready to work on an end to the war.

SecState Rubio commented on the idea of an energy ceasefire, considers it a “great idea…[a] ceasefire in which Ukraine’s infrastructure is not being targeted, Russian energy supplies are not being targeted as well.”

President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda, in New York for the UNGA, commented on a recent statement by President Trump:

“I have just received confirmation that the new rotation of U.S. troops is already on its way to Lithuania. We are grateful to @POTUS Donald Trump and the U.S. administration for this decision, which is important not only for Lithuania, but also for the security of the entire region.”

Shortly thereafter, Estonian Foreign Minister Tsahkna commented on the sustained US presence in Estonia:

"This is a strong signal of Allied unity and important element of deterrence and defence on NATO’s eastern flank.”

The final count in the Duma elections gives United Russia (Putin’s party) 355 of 450 seats, up from 315 in the current Duma. Considered of note is that 49 of the United Russia seats are now held by veterans, strengthening support of the war.

Ground Operations

Imagery confirmed small Russian gains south of Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv)

Ukrainian gains were noted about 6 miles north of Kupyansk, around the town of Zapadne, just west of the Oskil River. It should be noted that the source of this reporting show substantially smaller gains for Ukrainian forces in the region around Lyman, 50 miles further south, and again reinforces the difficulties in establishing a clear picture of the front line.

Imagery confirmed small Ukrainian gains north of Lyman, but the fact of the reports of Ukrainian attacks also confirm that Russian forces remain in the area and have not been pushed back as far as some reports claim. Clarifying who actual controls what terrain in this area remains problematic.

Ukrainian forces report that both sides are slowing the tempo of operations in the general area of Kupyansk and, while there are various reasons claimed, the issue appears to be the weather - the season: the first rains, and the loss of leaf coverage make off-road movement slower, and make movement forward (reduced concealment) more difficult. At the same time, rain and low clouds will reduce reconnaissance drone effectiveness and abet some movement.

Russian drones and artillery strikes continue into Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhivka, and glide bomb strikes were reported in the Kramatorsk and Druzhivka area. Of note, Russian glide bomb strikes have been reported on multiple bridges in the area, key GLOC targets as the autumn rains begin, ending the easy crossing of various rivers using fords rather than bridges.

While there is no reported change around Orikhiv, Russian forces continue to press on Orikhiv from the east and west; this is going to be a long fight, but Ukraine must hold this city. Loss of Orikhiv would destabilize the entire southern front.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Russian forces have launched more than 7,700 jet-powered long range strike drones into Ukrainian air space since they started using them earlier this year. Of those, 1,900 have been launched in the first 3 weeks of September. Ukrainian air defenses had achieved a better than 90% success rate in engaging the propeller-driven strike drones, but have, so far, only achieved a 60% success rate against the jet-powered drones.

Russia continues to expand production of its Geran (Russian made Shahed strike drones); current production is roughly 36,000 per year, but the expansion would add 28,000 more per year - a total of 64,000 per year by 2029.

Commercial satellite imagery shows a construction of a 450,000 square foot underground plant under construction at Alabuga, 125 east of Kazan, about 550 miles east of Moscow.

Ukrainian Forces

During the last 24 hours Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in Samarra.

Russian Forces

During the night of September 21st-September 22nd Russian forces launched Iskander ballistic missiles, Zircon missiles and Kalibr missiles, 8 x Banderol loitering munitions and 212 x strike drones and into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 1 cruise missile, 8 Banderol munitions, and 177 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava oblasts. Targets included the power grid, warehouses, industrial facilities and logistics related targets. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 6 towns with glide bombs.

Civilian casualties included at least 6 killed and 19 wounded.

6 border towns in Sumy Oblast were struck with Russian artillery fire.

During the night of September 20th-September 21st Russian forces launched more than 172 x strike drones as well as an unspecified number of Banderol loitering munitions into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 147 drones and 1 Banderol.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Targets included the power grid, warehouses, industrial facilities and logistics related targets. 

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 towns with glide bombs.

 Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jun8 Jul9         Aug7 Sep4 Sep8 Sep21 Sep22

Brent      94.71   93.82 77.93 81.75 93.69 98.19 99.49 100.00

WTI     92.10   90.59 73.11 76.66 89.17 93.28 95.10 91.32

NG       3.97       3.14 3.12          2.64  2.95  2.95 2.84 2.96

Wheat     8.52           5.82   6.06 6.35          7.45   7.46 7.28 7.21

Ruble     85         73.10 76.31 82.61 86.38 86.21 83.75 84.25

Hryvnia 28.6 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.52 44.63 44.72 44.78

Urals 91.66 86.33 57.80 79.19 86.70 89.44 115.44 107.50

ESPO 94.52 95.51 73.53 78.79 94.52 98.44 126.03 123.40

Sokol 99.31 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.94 94.09 103.83 103.83

The Financial Times reports that the cumulative affect of Russian attacks has resulted in the destruction of half of Ukraine’s warehouses, and virtually all of the country’s steel production.

Oleksandr Vodoviz, Chief of Staff for the CEO of Metinvest (a consortium that owns and operates steel plants in Ukraine Italy, Bulgaria, the UK and the US), commented on the Financial Times report: 

"They knew everything about the plant; they knew exactly where to strike... We don't yet know how long the repairs will take: days, weeks, months, or years.”

Vodoviz noted that, essentially, Ukraine no longer has a metallurgical industry.

And Anton Zhemerdieiev, commercial director of "TAS Agro," a holding company that controls more than 250,000 acres of farmland, notes that farmers are now being forced to store wheat int heir own silos as there is nowhere to ship the wheat and no way to get the wheat out of the country.

"Right now, it feels as if everything is closed off on all sides… Port terminals are closed, and the Danube route is also largely blocked.”

Thoughts

The Duma elections, and the additional number of veterans in the Duma, will, presumably, assure Putin of continued support for the war. Meanwhile, the strikes on each country’s energy infrastructure continue. Diesel prices in the US now sit at around $6.25. The highest spike before this month was June 2022 when it briefly spike to 5.75. 

Prices in Moscow - still subsidized (though sales are rationed) - are around 74 rubles per liter, which translates in $3.70 per gallon. Gasoline prices sit around $3.35 per gallon). As I noted, there is rationing, with various companies selling 40 or 50 or 60 liters (10.5, 13, 15.8 gallons) per vehicle.

The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have caused considerable damage but Russia had a good deal of excess capacity and Ukrainian strikes have caused a great deal of damage to storage tanks, pumping stations and port facilities, but it isn’t clear how much damage to the processing plants themselves, particularly given the excess capacity residing at each refinery; getting a clear picture of damage and repair times remains difficult.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to damage Ukraine’s power grid, as well as other industries, as noted above. 

As noted yesterday, both countries seem to be in a “race to the bottom,” but Ukraine doesn’t appear to have as far to go.

v/r pete