September 24th, 2026

Politics - Zelenskyy comments on Trump’s efforts

- CIA warns of drone attacks?

- Putin invited to G20

Combat Ops - Ground grind continues, marginal changes

- Missile and drone strikes continue 

- Unusual drone activity 

Weather

Kharkiv

57 and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy to cloudy through the rest of the week and through the weekend, more rain starting Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

58 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers Monday and Tuesday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

53 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the mid 60s. Winds south-westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy commented on three points that President Trump is emphasizing in his effort to move toward peace in Ukraine:

- Energy ceasefire

- Reopen the Black Sea grain corridor

- Trilateral talks

Zelenskyy commented:

“On the table now there is a proposition: energy ceasefire. We are ready.” 

As for talks, he noted:

“We are open – any country, any format.”

And on the grain corridor he added:

“Everybody wants ceasefire. The corridor has to work again. We support [it].”

Anonymous sources in the Lithuanian government claim that the CIA has warned  European nations that Russian forces will conduct drones attacks into Spain, France or Italy, launched off ships operating in the Mediterranean.

Lithuania, per the sources, learned of these Russian plans after DCIA visited Moscow at the end of August. 

At the same time the Danish Intelligence Service is reporting that it expects Russian Hybrid warfare efforts to expand in the near term. 

“In the coming months, Russia will further intensify its hybrid warfare by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and Nato, with greater consequences for the affected countries than in the past.”

The US has officially invited President Putin to the G20 Summit (in Florida) December 14th-15th.

SecState Rubio stated:

“We’ve invited President Putin to the G20. We think it’s an opportunity for him to engage not just with the president but with other world leaders. We hope that’s an invitation he’ll accept.”

Putin last attended a G20 summit in 2019 (Osaka, Japan).

Trump commented:

“I don’t know that he’s coming. I doubt he’d come, to be honest with you. If he came, it would probably be very helpful. I’m of the opinion that you talk to everybody.”

Ukraine has transferred 2 North Korean POWs to South Korea, per President Zelenskyy’s speech in the UN.

“Recently, we sent two North Korean prisoners of war to the Republic of Korea. These guys are not easy to capture alive. One of them, when he realized he was going to be taken prisoner, tried to kill himself. And he was shocked that fate did not let him die. Kim Jong Un uses them like currency and gets something in return,” noting that “countries across Asia have likely already noticed North Korea’s enhanced ballistic missiles and significantly advanced drone capabilities.”

A Croatian district court has approved the extradition of Volodymyr Zhuravlov to Germany, where he is accused of being involved in the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.

Ground Operations

Reporting increasingly notes infiltrations and counter-attacks by both sides and also small gains, suggesting a resulting front line (along virtually all of the front line) that really is a broad gray zone, an irregular checkerboard of intermixed Russian and Ukrainian positions that is slowly widening, and in most areas, slowly (very slowly) spreading generally westward or northward. Nevertheless, there are some small gains confirmed here and there along the line.

North of Kupyansk, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces holding their position in the village of Kalynove (about 6 miles north of Kupyansk, on the west side of the Oskil River).

What appears to be quite intense fighting continues in the arc north-east to east to south-east of Lyman, but there does not appear to have been any changes in the line in the last day or two.

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces remain in the gray zone north of Kostiantinivka, near the towns of Stinky and Molocharka, but also showed Russian infiltrations north and north-west of those positions, as well as continued Russian actions into terrain north-west Kostiantinivka, and imagery confirmed more Russian probes north and north-east of Pokrovsk in the Dobropillia area.

Further to the south-west, Russian forces retook Fillia, as Ukrainian forces pushed into the open terrain east of that town, near Horikove. And similar activity was noted east and south-east of Oleksandrivka, Russian and Ukrainian forces both with small, confirmed gains.

Ukrainian forces continue to hold southern and south-eastern Orkihiv, despite repeated Russian assaults.

  Again reiterating the small unit nature of all these actions, a “mechanized” Russian assault near Hulyaipole was singled out by Ukrainian army spokesman - that consisted of 2 x BTRs (a type of armored personnel carrier) and 20 troops, again underlining the small unit nature of all this fighting.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

There was no significant long-range Ukrainian drone or missile strike actions reported in the last 24 hours.

Russian Forces

During the evening of September 24th, per President Zelenskyy, there was an additional attack on Kyiv that consisted of “approximately 50 missiles,” in three waves,  later clarified to mean ballistic missiles, and Zelenskyy stated that the UAF had shot down “60%” (or 30 missiles.) The 20 missiles that struck killed 2 and wounded 4. 

During the night of September 23rd-September 24th Russian forces launched several Iskander ballistic missiles, several Zircon missiles, multiple Banderol loitering munitions, and at least 282 strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 3 ballistic missiles, 4 zircon missiles, 1 Banderol munition, and 219 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Rivne, and Sumy oblasts. Targets included the power grid, warehouses, industrial facilities and logistics related targets.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 towns with glide bombs.

Civilian casualties included at least 8 killed and 22 wounded.

During the night of September 22nd-September 23rd Russian forces launched at least 161 strike drones and multiple Banderol loitering munitions into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 3 Banderol munitions, and 119 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Poltava, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included the power grid, warehouses, industrial facilities and logistics related targets.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns with glide bombs.

Civilian casualties included at least 6 killed and 61 wounded.

Other Air Activity 

Berlin’s Brandenburg Airport reported drone activity near the airport late last night and suspended flight operations for 45 minutes (from 2020 - 2105 local), resulting in 6 canceled flights and 193 delayed flights. One aircrew reported sighting 3 drones. The airport has resumed normal operations. 

There is no finding by authorities as to who controlled the drone (or drones) or their intent.

A drone - apparently a Russian strike drone - crashed in an open field in northern central Romania this morning. No one was injured and there was no damage to any buildings. The Ministry of Internal Affairs is investigating. 

Another Russian strike drone was found on the ground near Floresti, Moldova (north-east Moldova). The police have taken the drone and are investigating.  

A Russian Mi-8 Hip helicopter, operating out of Russia’s Kaliningrad, briefly violated Polish airspace (for a total of 42 seconds) yesterday, before returning to Russian airspace.

 Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jun8 Jul9          Aug7 Sep4 Sep8 Sep23 Sep24

Brent      94.71   93.82 77.93 81.75 93.69 98.19 101.40 107.20

WTI     92.10   90.59 73.11 76.66 89.17 93.28 91.89 95.80

NG       3.97      3.14           3.12   2.64 2.95           2.95 2.98 3.16

Wheat     8.52           5.82   6.06   6.35   7.45   7.46 7.11 7.06

Ruble     85         73.10 76.31 82.61 86.38 86.21 84.43 85.00

Hryvnia 28.6 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.52 44.63 44.92 44.95

Urals 91.66 86.33 57.80 79.19 86.70 89.44 107.23 109.69

ESPO 94.52 95.51 73.53 78.79 94.52 98.44 101.75 105.58

Sokol 99.31 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.94 94.09 103.83 105.28

Thoughts

I’m not sure we should be surprised about increased Russian “hybrid warfare” activity, though I think they would try something other than a strike on specific targets. Rather, I would suspect, much as was seen regularly during the Cold War, they would engage in regular, frequent probes and minor provocations. The difference is only that the means are different - and easier to execute. Drones and cyber are “new,” but provocations aren’t.

I would think there would still be much more of an effort to be ascertain how various countries might respond before potentially tripping off an Article 5 incident. 

v/r pete