December 10th, 2025

Politics - Starmer, Macron, Merz speak with Trump

- Zelenskyy “Ready for elections”

Combat Ops - Fierce fighting continues

- Strategic Reserve committed?

Weather

Cloudy weather and thick fog continues to be reported across much of Ukraine and much of the terrain remains covered in mud. Rain and snow-to-rain conditions over much of the front, with temperatures in the upper 30s into the weekend but much colder next week - ground should begin to freeze. 

Kharkiv

35 and cloudy. Rain Thursday night and again Friday night, snow on Sunday. Cloudy for the next week, except Saturday morning. Temperatures in the 30s through Friday night, but inot the 20s by Saturday morning, followed by 4 days of highs in the mid 20s, lows near 20, wind chill in the teens. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

37 and cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, rain - snow mix on Sunday. Highs and lows through Saturday will be int eh 40s, then colder, lows in the 20s, highs in the low 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

42 and cloudy. Rain Thursday and Friday, temperatures will be in the mid 40s all day, both days. Then colder, highs near 30, lows in the mid 20s all next week, wind chills in the teens.. Snow Sunday and Monday. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Macron, PM Starmer, and Chancellor Merz held talks with President Trump today from the Elysee Palace. An anonymous source says that they discussed the lates version of the peace proposal and that they all greed that this is now a critical moment for Ukraine (which seems to be pretty much a BFO).

The Financial Times, also quoting anonymous sources, reported that President Trump gave President Zelenskyy “only a few days” to respond to the latest proposal.

President Zelenskyy commented on holding elections:

“I’m ready for elections, and moreover I ask… that the US help me, maybe together with European colleagues, to ensure the security of an election, And then in the next 60-90 days, Ukraine will be ready to hold an election.”

Per Ukrainian law there are no elections under martial law.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues both north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv City, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, nor were any changes noted along the border north of the Oskil River.

On December 7th Russian battlefield rockets struck the Pechenihy Reservoir Dam (about 25 miles east of Kharkiv, at the south end of the reservoir), on the Donets River. If the dam fails approximately 13,000 people will need to be evacuated and it will complicate logistics support for the Ukrainian army in eastern Kharkiv oblast.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There were no confirmed changes in the lines in and immediately surrounding Kupyansk.

Just south-east of Kupyansk imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces still controlled terrain just east of Pishchane.

Further south, north of Borova, fighting was reported around the pocket centered on Bohuslavka, and some reporting suggests Russian forces have made gains in squeezing that small pocket, but that has not been confirmed in imagery.

And in the generał Lyman area, imagery confirmed Russian gains near Zarichne and near Yampil, while further to the west Russian forces continue to slowly push westward from the Nitrius River area. Further recon probes into Lyman continue. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, fighting continues on the eastern and northern edges of Siversk, as well as in the southern quarter of the city, but there were no changes in the front lines. The exact line through the city also remains unclear with some sources insisting that Ukrainian forces still control the city center while other sources suggest fighting is ongoing in the immediate vicinity (200 yards east) of the central train station.

There are multiple reports of troops in contact immediately south-east of Kostiantinivka, but there are again no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Further west, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, imagery confirmed that Russian forces gained ground in the Rodynske area.

Imagery continues to show Russian forces at various position in northern and north-eastern Pokrovsk, but reporting also confirms that Ukrainian elements continue to hold small lodgments across the city. How many positions are held by Ukrainians isn’t reported, not is there any sense of how many Ukrainians forces remain inside the city.

There is similar reporting for Myrnohrad. Gen. Syrskii told reporters that Ukrainian units in southern Myrnohrad have been ordered to fall back to more defendable positions in the center of the city. Russian forces now claiming they control a third or more of that city, and other reports note that Ukrainian forces are digging in and holding, presumably in response to Syrskii’s order. Several sources note that the fighting is “fierce.” It was noted that Russian AF assets conducted more than 20 glide bomb strikes in Myrnohrad yesterday. Glide bomb attacks are normally targeted against very hard positions that can survive a direct hit from 152MM howitzers.

Anecdotal reporting suggests that logistics support to Ukrainian forces inside the pocket has been reduced to UAVs (drones) and that efforts to get to the city by ground, to include UGVs, have been unsuccessful for several days.

Fighting continued south and south-west of Pokrovsk, north of the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. However, anecdotal reporting suggests the Russian presence in the small city of Novopavlivka is tenuous, with only a single Russian infantry company (presently estimated at 100 troops) holding the city.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along most of the front line south of the Vovcha River, and particularly around Hulyaipole, though there were no confirmed gains in the immediate Hulyaipole area.

North of Hukyaipole there are several developments. Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces had pushed through Russian lines just north-east of Verbove, and have penetrated perhaps 3 - 4 miles on a narrow front (a mile or so wide). Just west of this small salient credible but not yet confirmed reporting notes that Russian forces have pushed into the small town of Ostapivske (population of about 125 people before the war, located about 15-16 miles north of Hulyaipole).

The village is not of great significance, but it lies on the north side of the Yanchur River and lies north of ("inside”) the second - and last -  major defensive line across southern Ukraine. Just south-west of the town the defenses turn south and westward is largely unprotected fields. Presumably the Russians will make an effort to establish full control of this town in the next few days.

Across the southern lines, fighting continues south and south-east of Orikhiv, with multiple claims of Russian forces gaining ground around Mala Tokmachka and also that Russian forces control Novodanylivka, but none of this has been confirmed.

Further west imagery confirmed Russian gains on the south side of Stepnohirsk and it appears that Russian forces now control the apartment complex (the Dacha area) just south of the  center of the city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 9th-December 10th, Russian forces launched at least 80 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 50 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and a temporary blackout was reported in Kyiv.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 civilian killed and 5 civilians injured.

During the night of December 8th-December 10th Ukrainian drones struck a facility making satellite antennas and receivers in Cheboksary (about 350 miles east of Moscow). There is no independent damage report.

During the night of December 8th-December 9th, Russian forces launched at least 110 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 84 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and temporary blackouts was reported in Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 civilian was killed and 3 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Dec9 Dec10

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 62.40 62.05

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 58.79 58.38

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 4.75 4.55

Wheat     8.52          5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.32 5.28

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 77.04 78.09

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 42.25 42.39

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 53.72 52.90

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 55.99 60.14

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 59.02 59.70

Reuters is reporting that, as of Monday, Russia is now offering ESPO crude to China at $5 below Brent, despite the listed bid above. As you may recall, contracts from August and September had been listed as $1 above Brent.

Thoughts

Unconfirmed but credible reporting suggests that fighting around Hulyaipole has slowed in the last two days after the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) moved the bulk of 4 brigades into the general area of the city to stiffen the defense. This reportedly includes most of the Presidential Guards Brigade. All told, if accurate, this represents the bulk of the Ukrainian army strategic reserve. Meanwhile, Russian forces have reportedly been plussed up around Pokrovsk and around Hulyaipole. If correct, the implications are obvious: Ukrainian forces need to stop the Russian assault now, there is “no one left on the bench.”

As for specifics, if Russian forces have taken the small town of Ostapivka, north of Hulyaipole, they can move south and south-west more easily and fairly quickly isolate Hulyaipole.

Again, it is worth remembering that there will be no great "cavalry charge” or turning movement like the panzers cutting through Luxembourg in 1940; the Russian army is not organized that way and they can not and will not attempt any large, fast movement. They are a “very low risk of loss” army. They will pay the penalty for failing to act quickly, taking extra casualties, but they will not maneuver into a situation that has a higher risk of battlefield defeat. Accordingly, assuming that the Russians have taken this little town and are now “inside the defense line,” this places Hulyaipole at greater risk, and increases risk for other terrain across southern Ukraine, which would justify the use of the strategic reserves by the UGS. But it also highlights the somewhat precarious situation of the Ukrainian Army.

v/r pete