December 12th, 2025

Politics - Zelenskyy visits troops in Kupyansk

- Umierov meets with FBI

- Rutte: No Sense of Urgency

Combat Ops - Kupyansk quiet

- Siversk - Russian gains

Weather

Cloudy weather and thick fog continues to be reported across much of Ukraine and much of the terrain remains covered in mud. Rain and snow-to-rain conditions over much of the front, with temperatures in the upper 30s into the weekend but much colder next week - ground should begin to freeze. 

Kharkiv

42 and mostly cloudy, more rain tonight. Temperatures falling tonight as the sky clears, tomorrow morning in the 20s, by Sunday morning temperature will be in the high teens, and will stay below freezing until Tuesday; snow likely in Monday, wind chills could drop to single digits Saturday night. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

43 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow, temperature falling all day tomorrow, 23 and snow by dawn on Sunday. Temperatures will stay below freezing until morning on Tuesday. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

44 and light rain, gusting to 40. Tomorrow colder, partly cloudy, snow on Sunday and Monday. From Saturday through Monday, temperatures may not get above freezing, and lows will be in the low 20s with wind chills in the low teens. Winds variable, 20, gusting to 40 today, then 5-10kts Sunday and all next week.

Politics

President Zelenskyy commented on his conversation Thursday with SecState Rubio and SecWar Hegseth and others, noting that it was “Constructive and in-depth,” but gave no substantive details.

The EU voted early today to permanently freeze 210 billion euros ($244 billion) of Russian assets, rather than revisiting the issue every 6 months; this is viewed as a first step towards seizing the assets.

The Washington Post reports that National Security Council Secretary Umierov, who is also lead Ukrainian negotiator, has held talks with the FBI Director Patel; the Post report noted that this was confirmed by the Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN. The Ambassador commented that the meetings were strictly concerned with Ukrainian national security issues, but speculation is that it concerns amnesty from any possible future corruption charges. 

The White House noted that:

"US officials regularly communicate with world leaders about national security issues of shared interest.”

NATO SecGen Rutte said that NATO members need to increase defense spending and defense industry efforts to avoid a war: “on the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured.”

He commented that many NATO countries do not feel the urgency of Russia’s threat to Europe and are not doing what must be done to increase defense production.

Responsible Statecraft is reporting that an employee at a highly regarded think tank made a change in an interactive map in November as bets were being placed on when the Russians might or might not seize the city of Myrnohrad. After some bettors received their payments, the map was reportedly changed, and the edits disappeared from the map. The individual involved was fired the day after this was discovered.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting also continues north of Kharkiv City and along the border north of the Oskil River, and Ukrainian forces are reporting increased Russian drone and glide bomb attacks in the Vovchansk area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along most of the line contact but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. President Zelenskyy visited the troops in Kupyansk this morning and was photographed inside the city taking a “selfie” in front of a large sign reading “KUPYANSK” (in Cyrillic). Russian forces were said to be roughly a city block away.

Reporting reflects that Russian presence in the city has dropped over the past week or so to less than a battalion, and some blogger maps are showing a Russian withdrawal from the city. Of interest, Ukrainian General Staff reports noted no Russian ground activity in the city in the last 24 hours.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Disregarding Russian MOD propaganda, Russian forces did, in fact, make some gains in and around Siversk, but the city is not in Russian hands. Russian forces appear to have pushed further into the north-east and east sides of the city, and are pushing northward from Svyato-Pokrovske (the small town just south-west of Siversk). Current front line maps however, do not show the Russian forces as having taken the high ground just north of that town, nor have they gained any ground north-west of Siversk. Taking the high ground west of Siversk is necessary to control the city, and will require gains from the north-west.

North-west of Toretsk Russian forces continue probes into Kostiantinivka, but there were no changes to the front lines in this area.

West of Toretsk - north of the Pokrovsk pocket - fighting continues in the area of Ivanivka, but there were no changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces retook terrain in eastern Myrnohrad. Gen. Syrskyi noted that Ukrainian forces had been pushed out of the Pokrovsk but have now fought their way back in. 

At the same time, Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad are slowly withdrawing to the north and north-west. Fighting appears to have again devolved to street-to-street, house-to-house fighting. At the same time, it isn't clear how large a force remains in Myrnohrad, and there are some reports that Ukrainian  troops have been able to both evacuate some wounded and to reinforce some units in Myrnohrad. To what extent that is so is not at all clear.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues between the Vovcha River and Hulyaipole, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues around Hulyaipole, though there were no confirmed changes in the lines in the immediate area of the city. Various reports note that Russian forces can strike all roads leading onto Hulyaipole with artillery and drone fire, but this has been the case for more than a week. 

Fighting continues in Stepnohirsk and along the coast toward Prymorske, but there were no changes in the lines. Imagery showed that Ukrainian forces continue to hold a small facility about 3 miles east of Kamyanske - what appears to be a small farm.

Fighting was again reported up river from Kherson near the Antonovskiy bridge.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 11th-December 12th, Russian forces launched at least 1 x unidentified ballistic missile and 80 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 64 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and a temporary blackout was reported in Kyiv. At least one ballistic missile struck Odessa, reportedly damaging a ship that was pier-side in the port facility.

Civilian casualties include at least 6 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 5 towns.

During the night of December 10th-December 11th Ukrainian drones struck an oil platform in the Filanovsky Oil Field in the Caspian Sea (offshore of Astrakhan in the north-west “corner” of the sea). The Filanovsky oil field is estimated to have 1.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil and currently produces about 160,000 barrels per day. Pumping has been temporarily suspended following the strike.

During the night of December 10th-December 11th, Russian forces launched at least 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 151 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 2 ballistic missiles and 83 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and a temporary blackout was reported in Kyiv.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 5 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Dec11 Dec12

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.06 61.00

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.31 57.33

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 4.33 4.09

Wheat     8.52          5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.31 5.31

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 79.51 79.56

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 42.24 42.20

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 52.34 51.94

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 60.41 54.56

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 58.29 58.23

Reuters is reporting that, as of Monday, Russia was offering ESPO crude to China at $5 below Brent, despite the listed bid above. 

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy visited troops in Kupyansk this morning and sent out a picture of himself standing in front of a large sign labeling the city. Reporters were later told that Russian forces were 1 city block away, although some reports suggest that Russian forces have withdrawn from that area of the city.

The picture will raise Ukrainian troop morale, though one might also note the city behind Zelenskyy is beaten up.

There is also the issue that Russian boasting and propaganda, claiming that the city was in Russian control, led to the movement of Ukrainian forces to that city, weakening the line elsewhere, and that Russian forces are now pressing hard on Siversk, Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.

There are also some interesting comments on tactical developments among various analysts, noting that the Russians are only making "tactical gains” and that there is no point along the line where the Ukrainian forces are going to collapse. But I think that misses the point of the Russian’s ponderously slow and deliberate “way of war;” there is no effort to make anything other than a daily, tactical, grind. This is a slow, painful war of attrition, the real effort is to cause casualties, and, after ugly, street-to-street, house-to-house fighting (as we now see in Siversk and Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk and Huylaipole), only as the Ukrainian army withdraws, do they occupy - not a city, but ruins. The Russians now have a long list of Ukrainian cities and towns pounded into rubble. They aren’t really trying to capture cities, they’re trying to inflict casualties.

v/r pete