December 4th, 2025   Next Summary December 8th

Politics - European leadership warns Zelenskyy of the US

- Turkey warns Ukraine and Russia

Combat Ops - War grinds on, both sides make gains  

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, thick fog continues to be reported.

Kharkiv

37 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through Friday, then three days of partly cloudy weather, then more clouds. Temperatures Friday through next Wednesday colder, daily highs around freezing, daily lows in the upper 20s, wind chill dipping into the low 20s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

40 and mostly cloudy. Some sun possible on Friday and the weekend, then more clouds. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

39 and cloudy, gusting to 20. More rain showers tonight, cloudy for the next week. Daily lows and highs in the low 40s through Friday, then colder, temperatures hovering around freezing Saturday through Tuesday. Winds south-easterly, 10kts.

Politics

Der Spiegel Reports that in a conference call among President Macron (France) Chancellor Mer (Germany), President Stubb (Finland), NATO SecGen Rutte, and President Zelenskyy, Merz and Macron warned Zelenskyy that the US may abandon Ukraine.

“There is a chance that the US will betray Ukraine on territory without clarity on security guarantees,” Macron said.

Merz commented that Zelenskyy must be “very careful”… “They are playing games with both you and us.”

Stubb then added: ”We can't leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys,” and Rutte agreed with Stubb.

General take in Europe on the talks in Moscow on Tuesday is that there was no progress; President Putin commented that all of Russia’s territorial claims must be met.

“It all boils down to this: either we will liberate these territories by force, or Ukrainian troops will leave these territories and stop fighting there.”

Ambassador Witkoff and Mr. Kushner are to meet with Ukrainian negotiations team lead Umerov in Florida this afternoon.

SecState Rubio commented that Putin seems to be the “most difficult” person in the negotiations.

The Turkish Government summoned Ukraine’s Ambassador and Russia’s chargé d'affaires and expressed concern over the attack on shipping in the Black Sea.

ForMin Hakan Fidan called the Ukraine attack on MidVolga 2 as “very scary” and said it threatens Turkey. The strike took place in Turkey’s Exclusive Economic Zone.

In a related development, the Romanian Navy blew up an USV 36 miles from the port of Constanta. They identified it as a “Sea Baby,” a Ukrainian unmanned naval drone. Ukraine denied it was their drone.

Norway, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Poland will provide $500 million to Ukraine for the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL - the NATO funded purchasing of US weapons for Ukraine).

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no changes in the front lines.

North of Kharkiv, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces regained ground in Synelnykove, the town just south-west of Vovchansk, just west of the T2104 roadway. 

There was no change in the front line near the border, north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued along virtually the entire front lines but there were no confirmed changes in the lines. Reporting on the situation in Kupyansk remains contradictory, and the earlier assessment that this has devolved to another street-to-street, house-to-house fight in several sections of the city seems to be the best guess at this point.

In the south Ukrainian reporting notes a good deal of Russian activity, with a claim of as many as 40 Russian recon probes into the city of Lyman per day. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, in the Siversk area, imagery confirmed Russian gains north-east and east of the city, and at the same time imagery confirmed that Russian forces south of Siversk had already pushed westerly and have taken the east side of the town of Sviato-Pokrovske (a small town of 500, about 2 miles south-west of Siversk) and control the T0513 roadway that runs through that town into Siversk. Just north of the town is a bluff, about 200 feet higher than the town; the Ukrainians will obviously try to hold the high ground, and the Russians will try to take it.

The GLOCs into Siversk are all now controlled by Russian forces; logistics support to Siversk now waits on the ground freezing so that the Ukrainians can move over the fields.

North-west of Toretsk there are multiple claims of Russian gains but they have not been confirmed. Imagery did confirm that Ukrainian forces made an incursion into the west side of Ivanopillia.

Further west, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, there were no changes in the front lines.

In the Pokrovsk area and the Pokrovsk pocket, fighting continues, with both sides claiming tactical gains. Ukrainian forces insist that they still have access to the Pokrovsk pocket and Myrnohrad and that the Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad are not trapped. 

West of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces made gains north of Udachne, retaking the coal mine about a mile north of the town.

Further to the west, Russian forces were confirmed to have taken control of the small village of Molodetske.

South-west of Novopavlivka, Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed back through the small town of Ivanivka and into Zelenyi Hai (which the Russian occupied last week).

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha, Ukrainian sources claim Ukrainian forces holding ground about 2 miles south-east of Velykomykhailivka - which would leave them with Russian forces to their south, east and west. 

In the Hulyaipole area and in terrain to the north of that town, there are multiple reports of Russian attacks, and there are Ukrainian reports that suggest the Russians have massed a very large number of forces on the two major fronts (Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole (claims approaching 200,000 troops around Pokrovsk, and somewhat smaller number near Hulyaipole). But, a count of the brigades or regiments (they have roughly the same combat power in the Russian army) shows about 40 in the Pokrovsk area (about a 50 mile front) and 20 in the Hulyaipole area (about a 30 miles front).

All that said, there were no significant confirmed changes in the line.

Further west, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces gaining control of parts of Stepnohirsk; it is unlikely that they have control over the entire city, but it does appear that there was some ground gained by Russian forces on the west end of the city and in the small apartment complex just south of the city. Ukrainian sources note what has been suspected, that Russian forces are moving through the dense vegetation that grew up in the now drained reservoir, to move north and flank Ukrainian defensive positions along the old coast in Prymorske.

Russian forces were again active near the Antonovskyi bridge, up river from Kherson.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 2nd-December 3rd, Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, and 138 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Mikolaiv oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, a temporary blackout was reported in Kramatorsk.

Civilian casualties include at least 4 civilians killed and 7 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 3 towns.

During the last 3 days Ukrainian drones have struck the Nikiforovsky Oil Refinery “Tambovnefteprodukt” in Dmitriyevka, Tambov oblast (about 200 miles south-east of Moscow), a section of the Druzhba pipeline also in Tambov Oblast, the Livny Oil Depot in Oryol Oblast (about 225 miles south of Moscow), and a chemical plant Nevinnomyssk (about 200 miles east of the Kerch strait).

During the night of December 2nd-December 3rd, Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile of unknown type, and 111 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 83 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson oblasts, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; a ballistic missile struck Kryvyi Rih. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target.

Civilian casualties include at least 2 civilian killed and 2 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 12 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec3 Dec4

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.93 62.99

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.16 59.31

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.94 4.94

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.39 5.36

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 77.68 76.82

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.16 42.18

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.18 54.32

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 57.67 56.67

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.39 59.84

Thoughts

The negotiations grind on, the fighting grinds on. The weather is getting colder, next week is forecast to include several days during which the temperature may not rise above freeing. The cold will be miserable for the troops, but if it stays below freezing it will mean less foggy days as well as frozen terrain, improving both reconnaissance and mobility off road.

Nevertheless, if the reports of Russian forces massing is roughly accurate, disregarding the count of brigades and regiments (which may not be accurate), the increased combat power wouldgreatly stress the Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and in Hulyaipole. It is possible that both could be taken by the Russians before the end of the year.

v/r pete