December 11th, 2025

Politics - Zelenskyy: A ceasefire is needed

- No new legislation for an election

- Zelenskyy comments on US Compromise

Combat Ops - Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole, Siversk at risk

- Another Tanker hit by SBU

Weather

Cloudy weather and thick fog continues to be reported across much of Ukraine and much of the terrain remains covered in mud. Rain and snow-to-rain conditions over much of the front, with temperatures in the upper 30s into the weekend but much colder next week - ground should begin to freeze. 

Kharkiv

37 and cloudy. Rain tonight and again Friday night, snow on Monday. Cloudy for the next week, except Saturday morning. Temperatures in the low 40s through Friday night, but into the 20s by Saturday morning, followed by 4 days of highs in the mid 20s, lows near 20, wind chill in the teens. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

40 and cloudy. Cloudy, light rain tonight and tomorrow morning, snow on Sunday. Highs in the 40s through Saturday afternoon, then colder, Sunday through Tuesday highs will be around freezing, lows in the mid 20s, wind chills in the teens. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

45 and light rain. Afternoon showers on Friday, some sun Saturday morning, snow on Sunday and Monday. Warm tomorrow - in the mid 40s all day, then colder for three days, highs near 30, lows in the mid 20s, wind chills in the teens. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy commenting on what is needed for a ceasefire:

"The United States of America, after repeated negotiations with the Russian side, believes that a full ceasefire can only come when a framework agreement is signed. In my view, it is no secret that the Russians will not agree to a ceasefire if there is no agreement. Our position has not changed – we believe that a ceasefire is needed. But we are receiving exactly this information: the only option for a ceasefire is the signing of a framework agreement."

First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Kornienko, commenting on reports that legislation was being drafted to concerning presidential elections:

"Currently, there are no legislative initiatives, drafts, or even drafts of such legislation. We need to work on it if we want it to appear. And it is obvious that such things should undergo a fairly serious discussion in parliament with representatives of various social movements and public organizations. Of course, the government should also participate in this. Accordingly, in order to start such a process, we need to all sit down together, discuss and understand where we can move further in parliament, developing this legislation.”

"If there is a need for us to provide a legislative framework, we will provide it. But it is clear that it is impossible to act without a security framework, which, again, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy correctly indicated, should be provided by partners, primarily the United States and our European colleagues. There are also questions about voters: those abroad, military personnel at the front, internally displaced persons. Several hundred thousand voters - we cannot neglect them and we must create conditions for them to express their will.”

President Zelenskyy offered comments on the US compromise:

"The Americans are searching for some format. They discussed the issue of a 'free economic zone'. The Americans call it that, and the Russians call it a 'demilitarised zone.’”

"They see Ukrainian troops leaving the territory of Donetsk Oblast, and the supposed compromise is that Russian troops do not enter this part of Donetsk Oblast. Who would govern this territory, which they already call a 'free economic zone' or a 'demilitarised zone', they do not know. This is more or less how the compromise vision of the United States looks at the moment.”

Zelenskyy suggests Ukraine cannot accept this compromise.

"When you talk to us about compromise, you must offer a fair compromise".

"We need to continue the conversation and try to find answers to all the questions in a way that makes everything more adequate. For example, these forces step back by 5 km, and the others also by 5 km. If one side pulls back 10 km, then the other must do the same. And as in all wars, there must be some form of monitoring.”

Zelenskyy added that the issue would need to be decided by the Ukrainian people through elections or a referendum.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no changes to the line of contact.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city and Ukrainian sources report Russian gains in central and southern Vovchansk.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and near Kupyansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. Credible Russian reporting suggests some Russian gains east of Kuyansk near Petropavlivka.

To the south, fighting continues along the line of contact, particularly north-east of Borova as well as in the general area of Lyman and the southern end of the Nitrius river, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. Russian MOD claimed more towns occupied, to include Lyman, but this has all devolved down to smoke and mirrors that is mainly to be ignored, but which seems to irritate some elements of the main stream European media.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

A good deal of fighting is reported in and around Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines in this general area. That said, anecdotal reporting suggests that Siversk is being squeezed hard with increasing numbers of recon and assault probes, and drone strikes, into the city. Wading through the various blogs generates the impression that Russian forces control perhaps the southern quarter of the city, are pressing into the northern and eastern edges, and are running multiple probes into the city every day. 

Russian forces pressing southward from the Yampil area still needed to get cross the Donets River, and Russian forces have reached the Dronivka area (south of the Donets River, north-west of Siversk), but do not have firm control. If Russian forces can push down from this area and take firm control of the town of Platonivka, they could threaten the high ground just west of Siversk. If Ukrainian forces can hold them off, they might be able to hold Siversk.

South-west of Bakhmut (north-west of Toretsk), imagery confirmed multiple Russian probes (elements of 5 - 10 troops) into south-eastern Kostiantinivka, to include confirming Russian activity around the central train station, and some analysts are assessing that Russian forces now occupy small parts of south-east Kostiantinivka.

Fighting was reported north and north-east of the Pokrovsk pocket but there were no confirmed changes to the line in that area.

Fighting continues in and around Pokrovsk, and within the Pokrovsk pocket. 

In northern Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces continue to hold a lodgment in the city. But overall, most assessments suggest that Russian forces control all but a few isolated spots in Pokrovsk. 

At the same time, Russian elements are pushing deeper into Myrnohrad from both the east and west, and other reporting suggests that the southern half of the Myrnohrad pocket has collapsed as Ukrainian forces withdrew into northern Myrnohrad. Who actually controls what is difficult to sort out but the center of Myrnohrad, the part that Ukrainian forces clearly control, has been reduced to an area perhaps 3 miles north to south and 1.5 miles east to west. There are an estimated 1,000 to 2,000 Ukrainian troops in the pocket.

Further south and south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha River, there were multiple reports of Russian assaults but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed Russian forces have moved into Ostapivske, about 16 miles north of Hulyaipole, and of note because it sits just north (inside) of the Ukrainian defensive lines across southern Ukraine. If the Russian forces properly exploit this, this would allow a broad flanking movement and an attack on Hulyaipole from the northwest, but west of the Haichur River.

In Hulyaipole itself, imagery consumed more Russian probes into the city itself. But Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian forces on the east side of the Haichur River.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 10th-December 11th, Russian forces launched at least 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 151 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 2 ballistic missiles and 83 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Lviv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and a temporary blackout was reported in Kyiv.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 5 towns.

The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) report on 10 December lists 1,420 civilians killed and 6545 injured in the previous 6 months, a 24% increase over the same timer period in 2024.

The OHCHR lists total - documented - civilian casualties since February 2022 as 14,739 killed, 39,521 wounded.

Ukrainian forces (SBU) used two or more “Sea Baby” USVs (surface drones) to strike MV Dashan, an oil tanker en route Novorossiysk. Dashan, a Comorros Island flagged tanker, was south of Crimea when hit. This is the 4th tanker struck since late November. The ship is a 165,000 deadweight-ton ship, video hows a ship that is riding high (mostly empty), while the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) said it was carrying $66 million in refined products. 

During the night of December 9th-December 10th, Russian forces launched at least 80 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 50 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and a temporary blackout was reported in Kyiv.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 civilian killed and 5 civilians injured.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Dec10 Dec11

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 62.05 61.06

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 58.38 57.31

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 4.55 4.33

Wheat     8.52          5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.28 5.31

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 78.09 79.51

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 42.39 42.24

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 52.90 52.34

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 60.14 60.41

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 59.70 58.29

Reuters is reporting that, as of Monday, Russia was offering ESPO crude to China at $5 below Brent, despite the listed bid above. 

Meanwhile, EU ambassadors have blessed the proposed plan to end purchase of Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027, less than 6 short years since the war started… 

Thoughts

Pokrovsk has, for all intents and purposes, fallen. Its value as a supply logistics hub ended by early June. Now it represents a morale fight. Hulyaipole will be the next morale fight and Russia’s moving back and forth across the Haichur river will be central to that fight.

An observation: an election (or a referendum) will be needed to accept the compromise; which seems like an election is needed to end the war. But there can’t be an election until the war is ended…

And any security guarantee, needed so that an election might be held, can’t come into force until there is an agreement…

I heard an ostensibly authoritative figure speak this morning about the Russia - Ukraine war and the current status of the combatants, and his analysis was that Russia is losing and that Putin needs a peace agreement. His assessment was based on several points (these were his points): 

- In the last 6-9 months Ukrainian application of technology, particularly in drone technology, has reversed the course on the battlefield and Russia is now taking unsustainable losses

- The sanctions are biting hard, and the recent Putin - Modi (India) meetings are a demonstration that Russia has few real friends and Putin is grasping for any friend he can find

- The Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure has brought the war home to the Russians and the Russian people are now applying pressure on Putin

- The Russian economy is hurting and Putin needs to end the war before the economy collapses

I think his interpretation of the conditions is flawed, but that isn’t the real issue here; the real issue is that it is possible for two people to look at this war and arrive at wildly divergent assessments of the situation. There are smart folks who think the Ukrainians can win the war if they simply endure another 2 years. There are others who think that the war is virtually over and the Russians are about to push through the line and begin the march to the Polish border. And everything in between.

Thing is, some of them are exceedingly wrong, and they are making decisions convinced of the accuracy of their assessments, and meanwhile a bunch of poor grunts are in foxholes paying the piper for their decisions.

This seems like the childhood poem by Saxe about the 6 blind men who went to investigate an elephant. As Saxe concludes: 

Each in his own opinion
    Exceeding stiff and strong,
Though each was partly in the right,
    And all were in the wrong!

Until the leadership on both sides get accurate assessments of what is happening, they are likely to stumble on and this war will continue. 

v/r pete