October 23rd, 2026    

Politics - VP Vance: Russia, Ukraine agree to negotiations

- Trump speaks to Musk re Starlink

- Relief for Oleshky - MRs. Trump

Combat ops - Air strikes continue, monastery in Kyiv hit

- Few changes on Ground

Economics - Currency moves, but central banks calm

Weather

Kharkiv

57 and cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through Saturday midday, sunny on Saturday afternoon and all day Sunday. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

58 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, daily lows in the high 40s, daily highs in the mid 60s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

56 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy until Tuesday afternoon, rain showers on Monday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Vice President Vance yesterday said that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to go back to the negotiating table, but remain far apart on critical points.

"I think both countries have agreed to come to the negotiating table. The reason we have not yet reached a peace agreement is that they are simply too far apart on the details of those negotiations.”

Commenting abut Ambassador Witkoff, Vance said:

"He is optimistic. The nature of these things is that you make an attempt, see how far you can get, and then come back to it again. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.”

Putin aide Ushakov also said yesterday that Russia is prepared to return to the talks and mentioned November 10th-19th in Abu Dhabi.

President Trump spoke to Mr Musk and asked him to fix the Starlink restrictions on Ukraine, as per the Wall Street Journal.

When asked about Ukraine’s access and loss of access, Trump commented:

"I don't want to comment on it. You know, whether I called or whether somebody else called doesn't make any difference. I guess the bottom line, he put it back."

Russia and Ukraine each released 270 POWs early today.

The White House and Kyiv are both thanking First Lady Melania Trump for working to save the people of Oleshky, Kherson oblast.

“First Lady Melania Trump successfully secured a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, localized to the city of Oleshky. Both nations agreed to temporarily stop all military action in Oleshky to allow for humanitarian aid to enter and to prepare a civilian evacuation through a designated safe passageway.”

Oleshky is a town in the Kherson oblast, located about 2 miles east of the Dnepr River, about 3 miles east-south-east of down-town Kherson city.

The town had a population of 24,000 before the war started, but about 2,000 remain in the city. The city was occupied by Russian forces in the first 24 hours of the invasion in February 2022 and has been subject to frequent artillery strikes since then. 

As Mrs Trump said:

“The situation in Oleshky is dire. Oleshky is a front line war city on the brink of disaster. The people of Oleshky have limited electricity, live amid mined roads, and endure regular military attacks. It was abundantly clear that without my intervention, the possibility to bring humanitarian aid into the city and to evacuate the elderly would be impossible.”

Both sides have accused the other of blocking supplies and relief to the remaining people. In addition, the area has been heavily mined, making it essentially impossible for civilians to move in or out of the city.

Mrs. Trump’s “representatives” worked with “Russian and Ukrainian leadership to define the terms of the localized ceasefire” and gain access to the city for movement of humanitarian aid. Those still in the city will be given the opportunity to evacuate to safety.

Davyd Arakhamiia, leader of the Servant of the People bloc in the Verkhovna Rada, said the operation to relieve Oleshky will begin shortly.

"Its goal is to establish permanent humanitarian corridors for the safe evacuation of civilians and the delivery of aid."

"This was a lengthy process involving many people at various political levels. We particularly want to highlight the role of Pope Francis [sic] and US First Lady Melania Trump. We express our sincere gratitude to them.”

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of October 22nd-October 23rd Ukrainian missiles and roes struck a chemical plant in Perm (about 700 miles north-east of Moscow) and a Russian federal government tax data center in Nizhny Novgorod (about 225 miles north-east of Moscow).

At least 630 Ukrainian drones were reported to have been launched into Russian air space, with drones striking "AO 75 Arsenal" (“75th Arsenal”) military repairs plant in Serpukhov of Moscow region (less than 50 miles south of Moscow center). Russian sources stated that all but a handful of drones penetrated Russian air defenses. The 75th arsenal’s main facility was reported to be on fire.

Ukrainian forces continue drone and missile strikes against Russian oil infrastructure.

During the night of October 19th-October 20th Ukrainian forces struck the oil production facility at Novonikolskoye (about 250 miles south-east of Moscow).

Russian Forces

During the period from October 22nd-October 23rd Russian forces launched at least 176 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 140 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr  oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. A power outage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 dead and 26 wounded.

During the period from October 21st-October 22nd Russian forces launched at least 25 x missiles (a mix of Iskander, Oniks, Zircon and S-300/400 missiles missiles) at Kyiv, as well as 210 strike drones. The strike included, per President Zelenskyy, 3 waves, and 21 total ballistic missiles.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. A large retail mall was also struck.

The Pivdennyi (southern) Bridge was struck and the subway line across the bridge is reported to have been damaged.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 dead and 56 wounded.

Russian strikes on on Kyiv on Wednesday included 3 x ballistic missiles with cluster warheads striking near the Pechersk Lavra (Києво-Печерська лавра, Kyievo-Pecherska Lavra - the Monastery of the Caves (literally Kyiv Cave Monastery)) and the Holy Presentation Monastery (Holy Presentation (Святого Введення - Sviato-Vvedenskyi), located about 1500 feet south-west of the Pechersk Lavra), as well as a strike on the Pivdennyi (South) Bridge (the major road and rail bridge on the south side of the city), causing minor damage to the bridge.

Technology

Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) reports that the Russians have a new cruise missile (“Filin”), 3.5 meters long (11 feet 6 inches) 3 meter wingspan (10 feet 10 inches) with a carbon fiber / fiberglass fuselage. Many parts are made in 3-D printers, cruises at 800 KPH / 480 kts, and has a range of 1,200KM / 655nm. The missile carries either a 50 or 100KG (110 lb or 220 lb warhead, can be launched from a status ground launcher using a solid rocket booster, and uses Chinese made Inertial Navigation System.  

The point, as the GUR points out, is that the Russians are working on making lower cost missiles, and Filin is one of them.

Ground Operations 

Imagery confirmed small Ukrainian gains on the ground 2 miles south of Vovchansk, and appear to have advanced one tree-line (one “posadka”) in the field just south of the the rail line, below the intersection of the T2108 andT2104 roadways.

Further north, Ukrainian forces are working to clear a pipeline that runs into Kupyansk, through which Russian forces have repeatedly infiltrated into and out of the city. Clearing the pipeline would certainly complicate Russian infiltrations into the city and assist Ukrainian forces in maintain control of the city.

Elsewhere, infiltrations were reported at various points along the line, but there are no tactically substantive changes in the line.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9         Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct 22 Oct23

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 111.50 116.10

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 98.38 102.60

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95   3.16 2.81 2.71

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46  6.86 6.22 6.28

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 81.84 80.78

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.16 45.38

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 101.56 106.24

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 138.82 143.17

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 117.34 119.82

ESPO Forward, 22 October - 131.36.

These are new highs for ESPO crude. 

It is also of note that the Ruble has gotten a little stronger (down from 86 to the dollar in September to less than 81), and the Hryvnia has weakened, dropping to an all-time low against the dollar, and represents a drop of 6.7% against the dollar since the start of the year.

Some thoughts from the financial pages suggest that the National Bank of Ukraine  (NBU) is comfortable with this weakening as the Euro has also been weakening against the dollar and the loans to Ukraine are all stated in Euros so this isn’t a real problem as far as the NBU is concerned.

As for the Ruble, Russian oil sales are all in dollars, so the Russian government is comfortable letting the Ruble remain above 80: high oil prices keep dollars coming in, and the weaker Ruble increases internal revenue and increases total budget revenue, stated in rubles.

Thoughts

Lots of talk about negotiations, most of it emphasizing, as VP Vance noted, that the two countries are far apart. Some commentators also stress that Russia - Putin - has no real desire for peace. Assuming they are right, what’s the answer?

Before answering, it’s important to note the long-term trends: Russia’s economy is   growing at a very slow pace, Russia’s population is starting to shrink. Ukraine’s economy is, as long as the war continues, broken, surviving only on Western largesse (and they’re asking for much more) and the Ukrainian population is in serious long-term decline, far worse than the Russian decline. 

Ukraine has about 32 million people and a GDP of less than $200 billion. If they wish to maintain a high-tech, well trained force, they would find it difficult to keep a force of more than 200,000 on active duty and another 200,000 reservists. Adding a robust, nation-wide air defense system capable of defending against missile attacks would be beyond their budget.

Would an external security guarantee (a la NATO) - with forces moved forward - in fact, convince Russia to stop? Or would Russia view it as a de facto aggression and respond? 

And Europe could not sustain any sort of force 400 miles further forward of its current lines, only the US could do that. So, any meaningful security guarantee would seem to mean US forces in - and over - Ukraine for years, and probably decades, to come.  How would Russia to respond to US forces further forward? 

There are no easy answers, and in practical terms, they may be no answer at all.

v/r pete