October 29th, 2026    

Politics - Oleshky ceasefire holds

- Putin lectures Stubb and Store

Combat Ops - Strikes continue 

- Modest ground gains

Economics - Ukraine GDP forecast reduced

Weather

Kharkiv

54 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow, then solid clouds for 5 days; rain expected Saturday and again next Wednesday. Daily lows high 30s to low 40s, daily highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

58 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloud for the next week, rain on Saturday and Wednesday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

51 and cloudy. Heavy cloud for the next week, rain next Wednesday. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

The Oleshky “Limited Ceasefire” went into effect on the 27th (0400 Moscow time) and remains in effect as of this afternoon. The ceasefire ends at 2359 Moscow time on November 1st. Ukraine’s and Russia’s Human Rights Commissioners both confirmed that there have been no ceasefire violations in the Kherson region.

Oleshky residents are being evacuated through Russian occupied Ukraine into Russian and then to Belarus and further movement to Ukraine (this is necessary as the roads to the west and north-west of the city have all been mined).

Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets has been in contact with Russia’s Commissioner for Human Rights Yana Lantratova, and the two continue to coordinate implementing the ceasefire.

Lubinets commented:

“Our shared goal is to ensure assistance to the civilian population of Oleshky and create conditions for the safe departure of those who need it. We continue working. The most important thing is people’s lives and safety.”

President Zelenskyy commented:

“First, the United States’ mediation is very important. They have to come with media representatives, with journalists. This was our request because we cannot trust the Russian side.”

“Second, we are grateful that they are organizing this possibility to evacuate people. I don’t know which side people will choose. Of course, it’s easier to leave Oleshky and go farther into the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine. But I also know that a large number of people want to come to territory controlled by Ukraine.”

“I know how an evacuation to Ukraine can work technically, but I don’t know how it will actually unfold. This is what our people, the military, and intelligence shared with me. And, of course, they have all the information they need about what to do and how to communicate with one another. Let’s give this a few days and see the result.”

President Putin spoke on the phone to President Stubb of Finland and President Store of Norway on the 27th.

There is a bit of a dispute as to how the conversation proceeded. President Stubs’s and Store’s offices stated that the call discussed the causes of the war and what needed to be done to reach a peace treaty, with Putin emphasizing concern over NATO expansion, a “root cause” of the war, and that that must be addressed prior to a peace agreement. 

On the other hand, the Financial Times (FT) reports that the phone call was mostly a lecture by Putin to Stubb and Store. Stubb’s office has insisted that FT retract their story, but the FT insists that Putin lectured Stubb and Store on Slavic history.

The call, originally scheduled for 20 minutes, reportedly lasted 90 minutes. The FT refuses to retract its story.

The Financial Times also reports that the Republic of Korea (South Korea) is working to strengthen diplomatic ties with Moscow as it reduces ties with Kyiv. The FT points to the 176,000 tons of diesel fuel, shipped in sanctioned tankers, sold to Russia in July and August, increased diplomatic dialogue with Moscow, and the appointment of Song Young Gil as President Lee’s Advisor on PEace negotiations (Song is a recipient of the Russian Order of Friendship). 

As you will recall, the ROK recalled its ambassador from Kyiv on October 10th, and is in the processing of reducing its embassy staff size.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

During the day on October 29th Ukrainian drones struck the Sterlitamak chemical plant 650 miles east of Moscow.

During the period October 28th-October 29th Ukrainian forces struck targets in the Moscow area, with Russian forces reporting 613 drones launched into Russian airspace. Russian sources claimed that “most” were destroyed, and that 231 were destroyed “as they approached” Moscow.

Moscow’s four airports - Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky - were closed at various times during the day but returned to normal operations.

During the period October 27th-October 28th Ukrainian forces struck the AZOT chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, which produces ammonia based fertilizers as well as nitric acid used in certain explosives.

During the period October 25th-October 26th Ukrainian forces struck the Voronezh Aircraft Manufacturing Company - which makes the IL-96 and the Voronezhsintezkauchuk chemical plant - which makes rubbers and plastic used in aircraft production.

During the period October 24th-October 25th Ukrainian forces struck the Energiya Plant in Yelets, which makes Iskander ballistic missile parts and the Proton-Electrotex Plant in Oryol City, which makes electronics components for various weapon systems.

Russian Forces

During the period October 28th-October 29th Russian forces launched at least 112 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kkharkiv, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties included at least 19 killed and 70 wounded.

The container ship “CONSTSHIP JET” (Liberian flag, 525 feet, 18,000 DWT, 1,267 TEU) was struck by 3 x USVs (unmanned surface vessels) 21 miles south-east of Shalba, Bulgaria late on October 28th. The ship was en route Constanta, Romania from Haifa, Israel.

The ship was last reported as underway on its own power, but making only 1 kt.

During the period October 27th-October 28th Russian forces launched at least 1 x  Iskander ballistic missile and at least 88 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The focus of the strike again appears to have been Kyiv and the surrounding area.

Since October 14 (2 weeks) the Russians have struck the Kyiv area with more than 100 Iskander ballistic missiles.

During the period October 26th-October 27th Russian forces launched multiple Iskander ballistic missiles and at least 280 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The focus of the strike appears to have been Kyiv and the surrounding area.

Mayor Klitschko reported that the Southern Bridge was agains struck, forcing a temporary closure of the bridge until damage could be assessed.

At least 5 civilians were wounded.

During the period from October 25th-October 26th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kh-31p missile (an anti-radiation missile), 3 x Kh-59/69 missiles and 140 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 3 Kh-59 missiles and 112 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Pavlohrad, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included the power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. The use of the Kh-31p (and no report of it having been defeated) would suggest a strike on a radar.

Civilian casualties included at least 2 dead and 17 wounded.

Ground Operations

Russian forces continue to conduct recon probes and infiltrations along the line.

Imagery confirmed new infiltrations in the border region north-east of Kharkiv (north of the Oskil River), as well as south-east of Kupyansk (east of the Oskil River).

Infiltrations were also confirmed north-east of Lyman.

These continued infiltrations are a seeming direct counter to the narrative the the Russian operations north-east of the fortress belt have been defeated. It would seem that the Russian army presses on.

In the Kostiantinivka area - both north of the city and west, as far west as Dobripillia, additional Russian infiltrations continue and the “checkerboard’s” concentration of Russian elements continues to slowly increase. 

Ukrainian staff commentary reroots that Russian forces pushed into Klynove (3 miles north of the northern tip of Kostianitnivka), having seized Bezimyane and Popsane, a mile south and soot-east of Klynove.

The level of activity and the fighting in the Dobripillia area reportedly is intensifying but the commentary is qualitative only, not quantitative, so virtually impossible to assess.

Further south, Ukrainian forces continue to slowly work south and have cleared Zaporizke and have pushed into Novomykolaivka, while Russian forces continue to infiltrate back into the towns just cleared. 

Meanwhile, west of Hulyaipole, Russian forces have gained ground near Vozdvyzhivka (about12 miles north-east of Orikhiv).

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9          Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct26 Oct29

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 116.20 113.60

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 102.20 100.30

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95   3.16 2.63 2.94

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46 6.86 6.17 5.96

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 80.74 81.23

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.67 45.33

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 115.07 110.48

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 124.72 123.32

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 119.42 119.53

ESPO Forward, 29 October - 131.02.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 and now says that for all of 2026 the Ukrainian economy will shrink 0.4% from 2025. Earlier forecasts  projected 1.8% growth. NBU Governor Andrii Pyshnyi commented that:

”This downward trend has been driven primarily by the effects of the blockade of seaports and Russian attacks on production facilities and logistics. Metallurgical and ore-mining companies suffered the greatest losses. Meanwhile, performance also deteriorated in other industrial sectors, trade and agriculture."

"Given the extent of the damage caused, the NBU forecasts a slow recovery in economic growth in 2027-2028. Economic activity will be boosted by public and private investment in the defence industry, the establishment of domestic weapons production financed through the Ukraine Support Loan, and projects to recover critical infrastructure, among other things.”

Thoughts

Lots of moving pieces. The fact that a ceasefire - limited though it is - is holding is a sign that a ceasefire can work. Melania Trump deserves a medal.

But multiple pieces of note in Europe: Europe natural gas prices (“on the street” as it were, the price paid by someone heating a building), are now more than 9 times the cost listed above - the bulk prices. And European natural gas holdings, normally the target is tanks at 90% full by November 1st, currently sits just over 70%.

Ukraine’s economy is not doing as well as forecast, the Hyrvnia is now holding in the 45 to the dollar range, and the GDP is contracting a bit, even as Ukraine asks for 70 billion more Euros, a loan that will be repaid when the Russians start paying for the destruction it has caused in Ukraine - after a peace treaty is signed. 

And why did Stubb and Store talk to Putin for 90 minutes (and apparently receive  a lecture on Slavic history? Just to get a seat in Abu Dhabi? Or is there a real concern that they need to be there to ensure pressure is maintained to bring about some sort of end to the war because there is simply too much going on and there is a real fear that they - the EU leadership - will not be able to maintain control of things if they get worse?

v/r pete