June 11th, 2024

Overall 

Ground Operations - Russian gains continue

Air Operations - only 1 x SU-57 destroyed

Aid - multiple SAM packages announced

Weather

Kharkiv

78 and partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, then two days of partly cloudy weather, followed by 3 days of rain. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

78 and clear. Partly cloudy weather until Saturday morning, then 2 days of thunderstorms. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

69 and partly cloudy. Thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, Thursday mostly cloudy, but no rain, then rain returns on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and the Russians made a small foray across the border near Sumy, and penetrated perhaps a half mile into Ukrainian terrain in the area of the town of Ryzhivka, but there was no indication that they were trying to set up a permanent position and they appear to have withdrawn after a photo op. Further south fighting continued near Lyptsi and Vovchansk but there were no confirmed changes in terrain held.

Donets River

Fighting continued along the line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses on either side. Russian blogger claimed gains north-east of Kupyansk as Russian forces press on the Oskil river but this has not been confirmed.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut Russian forces remain on the attack near Siversk and near Bilohorivka; there are reports of unusually heavy amounts of artillery fire but no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

Russian forces appear to be gaining ground in the north-east corner of Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces pushing on the canal as well as moving into the center of Eastern Chasiv Yar.  Russian forces are, apparently, still about a half mile from the canal. North of the city it appears that the Russian were able to cross the canal but not in large numbers, though they still hold that terrain. Immediately south of Chasiv Yar Russians are trying to reach the canal but also are bogged down facing tough Ukrainian resistance.

This section of town has, as with most of the larger towns in the area, complexes of small (5 - 10 floor) apartment buildings, that were very heavily built concrete buildings. Ukrainian forces move into the evacuated building and strengthen them, producing a hardened bunker several floors above the ground, giving them both better observation posts and clear fields of fire. (This combination in Vuhledar, south-west of Donetsk City, along with the use of very dense mine fields, resulted in the thrashing of two Russian regiments that tried to storm Vuhledar during spring of 2023). Now, rather that using 152MM howitzers in direct fire, which had some but not great success against these buildings, because of counter-fire from FPV drones, the Russians have used FAB 500 (1100lb) bombs to knock out some of the building and drive the Ukrainians back, and have taken control of several of these buildings themselves.

Donetsk City

Russian forces reportedly continue to advance to the west and north-west, but these reports have not been confirmed. In particular, reports continue to claim Russian forces gaining ground west of Umanske and north-west of Avdiivka, in the Sokil - Novopokrovske - Novooleksandrivka area, and this is tentatively supported by video which appears to show Ukrainian forces withdrawing northward from the area of Umanske.  Fighting is described as "heavy."

Velyka Novosilke (VN)

Russian forces made confirmed gains south of VN, pushing through Staromaiorske and now have clear control of the entire town.  At the same time Russian forces continue to gain ground in neighboring Urozhaine and now appear to control about half of that town.

Orikhiv

Fighting continues in an arc north of Robotyne, as well as north of Verbove, as the Russians continue to attack, but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

Dnepr River

Fighting continues near Krynky, but there were no changes noted in terrain held by either side. Elsewhere, Russia forces report fighting on several island in the Dneper as both sides continue to conduct raids on each other’s observation posts on the various islands.  

Air Operations

The Ukrainian Air Forces claimed it shot down 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles over Dnipropetrovsk. There was no other reporting on the strike.

Commercial imagery confirms that a single SU-57 stealth fisher was destroyed Sunday at Akhtubinsk (some 200 miles east of Ukraine, located just east of the city of Volgograd).

Russian Duma Defense Committee Chairman Kartapolov commented that Ukrainian plans to leave some F-16s in Poland to increase odds of survival would still leave those aircraft legitimate targets for Russian strikes.

Legally, Kartapolov is right (I even asked a retired JAG who worked Law of War issues during OIF). Of course, it still is an attack on Polish soil, and everyone knows it.

Russian forces claimed to have shot down 45 x Ukrainian drones.

At least 3 x FAB 500 PGMs struck targets in Kharkiv yesterday, injuring 6 people.

Aid

Italy announced that it will send a second SAMP/T (anti aircraft / anti missile) system to Ukraine as part to its 9th aid package.

The package also includes money for railway infrastructure, and mine clearing.

Germany has reached an agreement with an arms company (not named, but probably either Rheinmetal or NAMMO) to purchase 880 million Euros ($950 million) worth of 155MM ammunition. Current prices for a single 155MM round in Europe (basic round) run between $3,000 and $4,000 so this would translate into 240,000 to 315,000 rounds.

The Dutch and Danish will jointly provide 400 million Euros ($432 million) to procure CV90 IFVs for Ukraine. The CV90 costs about 4 million Euro apiece, so, if he purchase was just vehicles and did not include a maintenance package, this would mean 100 vehicles.

Germany announced the transfer of 100 x Patriot missiles to Ukraine, 32 having already been delivered at the end of last week.The remaining 68 will be delivered in the next several weeks.

Chancellor Scholz of Germany announced that Germany will transfer a 3rd Patriot battery to Ukrainian in the next several weeks.

Estonia will provide a package of Mistral missiles (range 3.5 miles) to Ukraine, but gave no details as to value or numbers.

Politics

President Zelenskyy defended his government’s policies on mobilization, commenting that: ”I’m completely clear-eyed concerning the issue of mobilization, because it has been ongoing since the beginning of the war. I see that this is an issue for the society, and it’s not the first day of the war, but if we want to keep our state, we must defend it.”

The mobilization law reduced the age of mobilization to 25 (now 25 - 60), and directed that all Ukrainian males update their records, so that the government knew how to remain in contact with them. The law is reportedly not popular with many Ukrainians.

President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine will build 1 GigaWatt (GW) of gas-powered electricity generation capacity in preparation for next winter, and a further 4 GW next year. 

Chancellor Scholz commented that for Russia to participate in the peace talks, it must first contribute to the peace making process, which would include first withdrawing all Russian forces from all occupied Ukrainian terrain.

Economic Reporting

    Feb 22  Mar 7  Jun10-22Jun8-23 Sep8 Feb8 Apr8 Jun7 Jun10 Jun11

Brent     94.71      119.50 120.90   75.58     90.95  80.93 90.13 80.06 81.81 81.86

WTI    92.10      123.80 119.50 71.29     87.77  75.49 86.13 75.81 77.92 77.85

NG      3.97      4.45    8.41     2.15       2.63      1.95         1.83         2.82         2.92         3.13

Ruble    85        145.70 58.48    82.59     98.11    91.09 92.69 88.77 88.81 89.18

Wheat     8.52       12.94   10.71   6.17        6.00    6.02         5.67         6.40         6.28         6.08

Urals                          56.56     74.34   66.28 77.31 67.61 67.61 67.61

ESPO                          67.02     80.88    74.85 85.96 74.63 75.45 75.67

Thoughts

Interesting editorial in the Wall Street Journal today,  by Walter Russell Mead. Mead comments that President Zelenskyy’s real strategy, borrowing a page from Winston Churchill, is to make Ukraine indispensable in such fields as cyber, battle field drones, electronic warfare and counter-electronic warfare. Then, when it looks like Russia may win, the US and the EU - recognizing that what Ukrainian has must not be lost - will come rescue Ukraine, specifically, US and NATO forces will step in and end the war.

Certainly this has been talked about since day one, that the way Ukraine wins is to get NATO involved and Russia will have to stop.

It is a reasonable bet, all other things being equal, that IF NATO forces did flow into Ukraine then Russia would consider withdrawing, while rapidly negotiating a ceasefire. In an obscure way, the plan has merit, though, as with the chip industry in Taiwan, key industries and key people can always be moved.

But there are two major difference between England and Ukraine; first, one is a maritime nation, the other shares a 1600 mile border with Russia and Belarus. 

The second piece to this puzzle is what got the US to fully commit? Pearl Harbor. Even with all the maneuvering by Churchill, and the very strong desire by FDR to support the British; master politician that he was, FDR was unable to muster a real commitment until the US was attacked.

If this is Zelenskyy’s “strategy,” it is a very high risk one.